1. No category

Økonomisk Perspektiv
Behov for vitaminer
Cheføkonom Helge J. Pedersen
PWC nytårskur
13. januar 2015
• 23 April 2014
Global
Hovedscenariet – global vækstfremgang
•
Divergensen fortsætter: USA og UK i front. Kontinentaleuropa har problemer –
græsk valg står for døren. Strukturel afmatning i Kina.
•
Ekstra vitaminer i form af Vækstplaner for G20 og EU samt olieprisfald
•
Danmark på vækstsporet, men problemer i industrien og i landbruget
•
Lempelig pengepolitik længe endnu på globalt plan
•
Geopolitiske risici
2
2
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Global
Det økonomiske temperaturkort for 2015
Global vækst 3,7 %
3
3
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Global
Væksten vender ikke tilbage til tidligere tiders
4
4
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Global
Væksten vender ikke tilbage til tidligere tiders
5
5
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Danmark
Selvom de finansielle forhold er helt i top, har væksten
det fortsat svært i dansk økonomi
6
6
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Danmark
Det ser dog bedre ud, når Nordsø aktiviteten tages ud
af billedet
• 3/15/2013
7
•
Danmark
Eksporten er løjet af…
8
• 3/15/2013
8
•
Danmark
Danmark investerer meget mere i udlandet end
udlandet investerer i Danmark
572 mia.
kroner
9
9
•
• 23 April 2014
Helge J. Pedersen
Danmark
Vi efterspørger i stigende udstrækning tjenesteydelser
– ferier, fitness, frisører.
1
0
Boligmarkedet som løftestang for privatforbruget
11
Prognose for dansk økonomi
Danmark: Makroøkonomiske nøgletal (realvækst
i pct. med mindre andet er angivet)
2011 (DKKbn)
872
491
336
40
80
216
18
971
869
2012
0.4
-0.2
0.6
9.8
-8.2
1.2
-0.6
0.1
0.9
-0.7
1,867
2013
0.0
-0.5
0.9
0.3
-5.0
3.4
-0.2
0.8
1.5
-0.5
1,886
2014E
-0.2
0.9
3.2
2.7
5.3
2.7
0.0
2.2
3.5
0.8
1,911
2015E
0.6
0.9
1.5
-6.3
1.4
4.0
0.0
1.4
1.0
1.3
1,960
2016E
1.6
0.5
3.3
-3.7
2.8
5.4
0.0
3.0
2.9
1.7
2,022
Arbejdsløshed, %
Bruttoarbejdsløshed, 1000 personer
Forbrugerpriser, % årsvækst
Timelønninger (DA/LO-området), % årsvækst
Nominelle huspriser, enfamilie, % y/y
Betalingsbalance (mia. DKK)
- % af BNP
6.1
161.6
2.4
1.6
-3.3
105.0
5.6
5.8
153.0
0.8
1.2
2.7
136.0
7.2
5.1
135.0
0.6
1.3
3.4
127.0
6.6
5.1
134.0
0.9
1.4
2.9
125.0
6.4
4.9
131.0
1.4
1.7
3.5
120.0
5.9
Offentlig budgetsaldo (mia. DKK)
- % af BNP
Offentlig gæld, % af BNP
-73.0
-3.9
44.4
-14.0
-0.7
43.8
-3.0
-0.2
45.1
-55.0
-2.8
45.2
-47.0
-2.3
45.9
Privatforbrug
Offentligt forbrug
Faste bruttoinvesteringer i alt
- offentlige investeringer
- boliginvesteringer
- faste erhvervsinvesteringer
Lagerinvesteringer*
Eksport
Import
BNP
BNP nominel (mia. DKK)
1,833
12
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Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea
Bank Danmark A/S.
The information provided herein is intended for background information
only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other
information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of
the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This
notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks
related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for
the judgement of the recipient.
The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not
constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or
solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The
information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment
objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular
recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be
obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to
note that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thank you!
Helge J. Pedersen
Global Chief Economist
Economic Research
+45 3333 3126
[email protected]
Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal,
taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction.
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• 23 April 2014•
Helge J. Pedersen