1. No category

Udviklingen på
energimarkederne
Lennart Persson
Area Manager
Bergen Energi ApS
International - Independent - Innovative
1 Our Business
Service i hele Europa
MiFID License
Uafhængige og neutrale med
transparente handelsmodeller
International - Independent - Innovative
2 Vores tjenester
International - Independent - Innovative
3 > 1000 customers in Europe
International - Independent - Innovative
Agenda
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Strukturelle ændringer i elmarkedet -­‐ nogle kommentarer Elåret 2015 – hvordan gik det Prisprognose Naturgas -­‐ kommentarer International - Independent - Innovative
5 Sjælland + Skåne = 100 år
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Sammenkobling af el systemerne på Sjælland og i vestre Skåne SystemopEmering gennem bilateral handel Effektreserve Fælles planering for nye produkEonsenheder International - Independent - Innovative
6 Strukturelle ændringer i elmarkedet
•  SEgende andel vedvarende produkEon •  Nye produkEonsmønster •  Andre økonomiske spilleregler end for tradiEonelle kraKværker International - Independent - Innovative
7 Solar power in the German market
•  Investments in
solar capacity help
decrease price
volatility since the
traditional mid day
peak is removed
International - Independent - Innovative
8 Solar Eclipse in Europe
•  We saw a return to
the mid day peak
during the solar
eclipse on the 20th of
March
International - Independent - Innovative
9 Wind power in the German market
•  Increased wind
power capacity is
however less
predictable
•  Additionally there is
no guarantee that
the wind will blow
when we need
electricity
International - Independent - Innovative
10 Tilbud og etterspørsel i Norden
International - Independent - Innovative
11 Utviklingen i ny-fornybar
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Danmark har et system med
direkte subsidier og har nå
ca 20% av forbruket dekket
av ny-fornybar
Sverige Norge og Finland
henger etter
Med det felles norsk –
svensk el.sertifikat systemet
er det nå muligheter for at
Norge også for en betydelig
andel ny-fornybart. Målet er
å stimulere til 26 TWh
produksjon av ny-fornybar
kraft i 2020.
International - Independent - Innovative
12 Udviklingen i SE3, SE4 og DK2
•  Lave spot-­‐ og forwardpriser er generelt demoEverende for investeringer. •  Lave priser på elcerEfikater påvirker investeringer i fornybar energi (SE, NO) •  Øget atomkraKskat rammer driKøkonomien for svenske atomkraKværker •  VaYenfall har ved generalforsamlingen før sommeren indikeret stop i forEd, og i sidste uge bekræKet at de ønsker at stoppe driKen i Ringhals 1 og 2 senest 2020 •  Eon har også, i foråret 2015, meldt ud at de ønsker stoppe Oskarshamn 1 og 2 før planeret. Har dog ikke fulgt op med detaljer. •  Et tab på 10-­‐15 TWh/år og ca. 2000 MW effekt vil ramme især SE4 og DK2 prismæssigt International - Independent - Innovative
13 Tilbud og etterspørsel i Tyskland
International - Independent - Innovative
14 2015 - prisudvikling
International - Independent - Innovative
15 ENOYR-2015
International - Independent - Innovative
16 ENOYR-2015
International - Independent - Innovative
17 ENOYR-2015
International - Independent - Innovative
18 Heavy rainfall in 2015
International - Independent - Innovative
19 Hydro balance
International - Independent - Innovative
20 Kina etterspør (og produserer) ca halvparten av klodens kull
International - Independent - Innovative
21 …and falling coal price
International - Independent - Innovative
22 NASDAQ OMX (Power) and Coal (API2)
International - Independent - Innovative
23 Nordiske, tyske og danskepriser henger sammen
•  Selv om Danmark er en del av det nordiske
markedet er prisene i Danmark ofte lik de i
Tyskland
EEX System Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra June 2000 DK1 0,8518 0,8104 DK2 0,7029 0,8895 Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra juni 2000 Al oktober 2011 EEX System DK1 0,8690 0,8195 DK2 0,7027 0,8989 International - Independent - Innovative
24 Svenske og danskepriser henger også sammen
•  Etter at de svenske prisområdene ble
innført i november 2011, følger de
danske prisene sør Sverige
Korrelasjon mellom markedene fra november 2011 DK1 EEX 0,5406 System 0,6613 SE4 0,7678 SE3 0,7240 DK2 0,6956 0,7296 0,8833 0,8144 International - Independent - Innovative
25 Områdeprisene
•  Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire
prisområder ser vi tendenser til
tre hovedområder i det
nordiske markedet.
–  Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark
(høypris)
International - Independent - Innovative
26 Områdeprisene
•  Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire
prisområder ser vi tendenser til
tre hovedområder i det
nordiske markedet.
–  Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark
(høypris)
–  Nord Norge og Nord Sverige
(mellompris)
International - Independent - Innovative
27 Områdeprisene
•  Etter at Sverige ble delt i fire
prisområder ser vi tendenser til
tre hovedområder i det
nordiske markedet.
–  Finland, Sør Sverige og Danmark
(høypris)
–  Nord Norge og Nord Sverige
(mellompris)
–  Sør Norge (lavpris)
International - Independent - Innovative
28 Prisudvikling el
International - Independent - Innovative
29 €/MWh Spotprice
Prognoses 2015: 21,8€ International - Independent - Innovative
30 Spotprice
€/MWh Average spotprice: 35,6€ Down 39% International - Independent - Innovative
31 Spotprice and forward price
International - Independent - Innovative
32 Nasdaq
Norden
International - Independent - Innovative
33 Nasdaq
Norden
Above 50€ International - Independent - Innovative
34 Nasdaq
Norden
Above 50€ Around 25€ International - Independent - Innovative
35 Nasdaq
Norden
International - Independent - Innovative
36 Price prognosis
International - Independent - Innovative
37 Base Case
Main bullet points used in the model:
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Expected increased renewable 2012-2020
is 28,1 TWh
Swedish nuclear phase out, R1 in 2018 and
R2 in 2020
Finnish nuclear phases in, Olkiluoto 3,2018
New cables to Germany in 2018 and
England in 2020
International - Independent - Innovative
38 Nuclear
Changes to the base case:
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Swedish nuclear production plants do not
phase out
Finnish nuclear production starts as
planned 2018
International - Independent - Innovative
39 Renewable
Changes to the base case:
• 
Target for new renewable is half of
expectations
International - Independent - Innovative
40 Market price
International - Independent - Innovative
41 BEMA’s prognosis
International - Independent - Innovative
42 Elprisprognose, med intervaller
International - Independent - Innovative
43 Naturgas
International - Independent - Innovative
44 Det fundamentale bildet
•  Utviklingstakten og
konjunkturene danner
grunnlaget for prisprognosene
•  Kullprisen bestemmes i Asia
•  Oljeprisen bestemmes i
Midtøsten og USA
•  Gassprisen er avhengig av
oljeprisen
•  Karbonprisen avhenger av
europeiske politikere
International - Independent - Innovative
45
The Global Gas Market
The US has increasing shale gas supplies but unable to export unEl 2016 keeping domesEc prices low and isolaEng the market on a global basis Europe's demand largely met through pipeline gas from Norway and Russia with some LNG imports Growing LNG supply on an internaEonal scale International - Independent - Innovative
46 Global Pricing Division
International - Independent - Innovative
47 Betydelig andel gass fortsatt knyttet oljepris
International - Independent - Innovative
48 O il Market: B rent $50,05/bbl, NY ME X $42,56/bbl
World oil prices roared back to $50 a barrel in the second day of a freneEc short-­‐covering rally on Friday, with violence in Yemen, a storm in the Gulf and refinery outages helping extend the biggest two-­‐day rally in six years. Oil had tumbled in tandem with stocks over much of the past week, hikng 6-­‐1/2-­‐year lows below $40 a barrel as Chinese financial tumult stoked fears of slowing growth. Oil rallied on Thursday as equiEes rebounded, but on Friday oil kept pushing higher even as equity markets were calm. Brent, the global oil benchmark, closed up $2.49, or 5 percent, at $50.05, aKer nearly reaching $51 a barrel. It gained 10 percent on the week. U.S. crude's front-­‐month contract snapped an eight-­‐week losing streak, rising $2.66, or 6.3 percent, to seYle at $45.22 a barrel. At its session high, it was up more than $3, or 7 percent at nearly $46. For the week, it rose 12 percent. U.S. crude's 17 percent gain over the past two sessions was the second largest in 25 years. Yet prices remain at half their year-­‐ago level. Traders noted a lingering global glut of oil supplies, and said the rally was largely fueled by a rush by market players to exit a crowded bearish trade. A global glut of fuel and sluggish demand have cut oil prices in half from a year ago. Worries over China's economy have also weighed on the market in recent weeks. USD/bbl
Oil -­‐ Brent & WTI
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
Feb-­‐12 Jun-­‐12 Oct-­‐12 Feb-­‐13 Jun-­‐13 Oct-­‐13 Feb-­‐14 Jun-­‐14 Oct-­‐14 Feb-­‐15 Jun-­‐15
Brent
WTI
US Crude o il i nventories
-­‐5,45
US Gasoline
1,66
US D istillate
1,44
International - Independent - Innovative
49 European Gas Supplies
International - Independent - Innovative
50 EU Imports of Russian Gas
Source: Thomson Reuters International - Independent - Innovative
51 European Gas – Spot Markets
Eur/MWh
45
p/th
100
40
35
80
30
25
60
20
40
15
10
20
5
0
Apr-­‐13
0
Jul-­‐13
Oct-­‐13
Jan-­‐14
DE NCG DA
Apr-­‐14
Jul-­‐14
NL T TF D A
Oct-­‐14
Jan-­‐15
Apr-­‐15
Jul-­‐15
UK N BP DA
International - Independent - Innovative
52 Forwardpriser sterkt knyttet til spotutviklingen
International - Independent - Innovative
53 TTF Cal-16
Daily TRNLTTFYZ6
08.09.2014 - 24.09.2015 (LON)
Price
Line; TRNLTTFYZ6; Trade Price(Last)
EUR
07.09.2015; 19,6N/A; N/A
MWh
24,0
23,0
22,0
21,0
20,0
19,6
.1
okt
nov des
Q4 2014
jan
feb mar
Q1 2015
apr
mai
jun
Q2 2015
jul
aug sep
Q3 2015
International - Independent - Innovative
54 Price prognosis (TTF)
International - Independent - Innovative
55 Appendix
International - Independent - Innovative
56 Kostnader i et kullkraftverk er prisforventningen i det nordiske
kraftmarkedet
SRMC kull: ((Kullpris/ Valuta) * konversjonsfaktor) / effekEvitetsfaktor) + (CO2 pris * utslippsfaktor) / effekEvitetsfaktor+ driKskostnader International - Independent - Innovative
57 E uropean G as Market
Gas prices followed oils wild ride last week with a significant drop to start the week followed by a recovery back to levels close to where they started. Day ahead gas in the Netherlands started the week at 19.25 EUR/MWh, fell to 18,68 EUR/MWh on Wednesday and closed the week at 19.54 EUR/MWh on Friday. This same paYern was also evident in the Dutch forward market, and in the majority of European gas markets. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices for October delivery fell this week as new cargoes offered by Indonesia and Australia outweighed supply problems at Nigeria's Bonny export terminal. The price of Asian spot cargoes fell to around $7.60 per million BriEsh thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday, down from around $7.90 per mmBtu last week. Supply at Nigeria's LNG export plant Eghtened aKer Shell warned of constrained feedgas entering the facility due to the shutdown of a major oil pipeline a day earlier. Nigeria LNG had just liKed one force majeure a week earlier aKer repairing a pipeline. That disrupEon to gas supplies had only a negligible impact on LNG exports, delaying cargo loadings by three to four days. Gas giant Qatar has agreed with PetroChina to skew deliveries under an exisEng long-­‐term LNG supply deal towards the peak demand winter period, a shiK likely to weigh on global spot prices. The deal only extends to this winter, one of the sources said, but could be renewed when PetroChina and Qatar discuss their delivery programme for 2016 later this year. With PetroChina's winter gas demand now largely filled through Qatari diversions, global LNG markets should see less Chinese buying on spot markets this winter, pukng pressure on prices. Short term marginal cost i ncluding CO2 for gas, quarter ahead (€)
41,88
International - Independent - Innovative
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