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Utsikter: Norsk økonomi og
boligmarkedet
NBBL, 25. november 2015
Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
Bakteppe: Oljemedvind har blitt oljemotvind
Vi venter bare forsiktig opphenting i oljeprisen
Oil price
Brent Blend, USD/barrel
150
120
90
60
30
0
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Actual
Norges Bank (Sep-15)
Jan-10
Jan-15
Jan-20
DNB Markets
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Det betyr investeringskutt på norsk sokkel...
Pga lavere lønnsomhet og svekket kontantstrøm. Drøyt -30% in 2015-17
Norway: Petroleum investments
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
1995
2000
Bn 2012-NOK
2005
2010
2015
Share of Mai nland GDP (rha)
Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
3
…og aktivitetsfall i oljetilknyttede næringer
Oljeleverandører og ringvirkninger til næringsrettet tjenesteyting
Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring
Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 til +5. Prod. ha
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
Jan-06
Jan-08
Oljelev.
Jan-10
B/A
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jan-12
Jan-14
Varehandel
-6
Jan-16
B2B
Arbeidsledigheten stiger…
SSBs arbeidskraftsundersøkelse: 4,6%, høyeste nivå siden juli 2005
Arbeidsledige
1000. Sesongjustert
190
190
170
170
150
150
130
130
110
110
90
90
70
70
50
50
30
Sep-90
Sep-95
Sep-00
Reg.+tiltak
Kilde: Thomson Datastream / DNB Markets
Sep-05
Reg.
Sep-10
30
Sep-15
AKU
…men økningen er ujevnt fordelt geografisk
Forvent bredere oppgang (geografisk/yrkesmessig) når ringvirkninger spres
Norway: Registered unemployment
by region
Percentage y/y change, 3-m. moving average
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Oct-11
Oct-12
South
West
Oct-13
East
Middle
Source: NAV/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Oct-14
Oct-15
Inland
North
Ikke rart - “oljejobbene” er ujevnt fordelt
2014: 330 000 (13% av alle) jobber. 21% av disse eksportrelaterte
Source: IRIS-rapport, «Industribyggerne 2015»
Støtdemper 1: Oljeprisfallet har svekket kronen
Gjør norske bedrifter mer konkurransedyktige
Norge: Relative timelønnskostnader
i industrien, målt i felles valuta
Indeks. 2003=100
130.0
120.0
110.0
Isolert ef f ekt av 10 prosent
svakere krone
100.0
90.0
2003
2008
Kilde: Teknisk beregningsutvalg/DNB Markets
2013
Støtdemper 2: Lavere rentekostnader
Nær null => mer aggressiv sentralbank. Støtter husholdningenes kjøpekraft
Norge: Foliorente
Prosent
1.75
Vi venter kutt i desember.
Markedet venter kutt i mars.
Norges Banks rentebane indikerer
kutt i midten av neste år
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
Jan-15
Jan-16
PPR 2/15
Jan-17
PPR 3/15
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jan-18
x finstab
DNB
Støtdemper 3: Muskler i finanspolitikken
Stimulans øker neste år. Skattelettelser, bygg og vedlikehold – gir jobber
Strukturelt, oljekorrigert
underskudd. Mrd NOK, 2016-priser
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002
2006
2010
Faktisk
Kilde: Finansdepartement et
(NB2014)/DNB Markets
2014
4%-regel
Joker: Hvordan reagerer forbrukerne?
I verste fall vil forsiktighetsmotivert sparing øke, og forsterke «oljebremsen»
Detaljhandel
Forbrukerforventninger for neste år
Sesongjustert volum. 3m/3m årlig rate, %
12
60
9
40
6
20
3
0
0
-20
-3
-40
-6
-9
Sep-10
Indeks
-60
Q4 1992
Sep-11
Sep-12
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Q3 1998
Q2 2004
Landets økonomi
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q1 2010
Q4 2015
Egen økonomi
Vi venter ikke panikksparing…
Men stabil, moderat forbruksvekst, i tråd med kjøpekraftsutviklingen
Norway: Households. Per cent
Percentage annual change
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1996
2001
2006
Consumption
Savings rate (level)
Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
2011
2016
Disp. income
…og heller ikke en krasjlanding i boligmarkedet
Dagens prisnivå ikke en boble. Men nå snur driverne i negativ retning
Norge: Bruktboligpriser
Prosentvis endring år/år
30
20
10
0
-10
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Faktisk/anslag
Kilde: Eiendom Norge,/Finn.no/Eiendoms verdi/DNB
2010
2015
Modell
Markets
Merk: Forklaring ikke synonymt med usårbarhet
Økonomiske krefter virker begge veier. Arbeidsledigheten skal videre opp.
Norge: Boligprismodell
Norge: Boligprismodell
Virkning av 1 pp høyere rente
Referansebane = 100
Virkning av 1 pp høyere ledighet
Referansebane = 100
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
2012
Modell
Kilde: DNB Markets
2013
2014
2015
2016
Med eksogen boligbeholdning
2012
Modell
Kilde: DNB Markets
2013
2014
2015
2016
Med eksogen boligbeholdning
Gjelden er høy, men renteutgiftene er lave
Uproblematisk for de fleste å håndtere gjelden nå
Norge: Husholdningene
Prosent av disponibel inntekt
20
250
16
200
12
150
8
100
4
50
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
Rentebelastning
Kilde: Statistisk
sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
Gjeldsandel (ha)
En moderat tilbudsside tilsier at fallet blir moderat
En helt annen byggerespons på innvandringen enn i Irland (& Spania)
Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging
Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging
Prosent av befolkning
Prosent av befolkning
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Nettoinnvandring
Øvrig
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2010
Fullførte boliger
1990
1995
2000
2005
Nettoinnvandring
Øvrig
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2010
Fullførte boliger
Nå avtar arbeidsinnvandringen
Men flyktningkrisen i Europa har nådd Norge. Effekten er usikker
Norge: Asylsøknader
Norge: Asylsøknader
1000 personer
1000 personer
25
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
15
10
5
2007
0
2007
2009
Kilde: UDI//DNB Markets
2011
2013
2015* (til
okt)
2009
Afghanistan
Irak
Somalia
Kilde: UDI/DNB Markets
2011
2013
Eritrea
Iran
Syria
2015* (til
okt)
Supersyklusen ved veis ende…
Både for norsk økonomi og for boligprisene
Norge: Reell bruktboligpris
Utvalgte def latorer. 1985 = 100
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1985
1990
KPI
1995
2000
Årslønn
2005
2010
2015
Disponibel inntekt
Source: Eiendom Norge/Eiendomsveri/finn.no/ SSB /DNB
Markets
…men ingen krise!
Lavere vekst enn normalt, ikke fall i aktiviteten. Støtdempere virker
Norway: Mainland GDP and
unemployment
Percent.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
2003
2008
Mainland-GDP (change, y/y)
Source: Statistics Norway/DNB Markets
2013
Unemployment
Oppsummering
• Norge og verdensøkonomien går motsatt vei:
Lavkonjunktur i Norge, mens oppsvinget fortsetter ute.
• Oljeboom har blitt oljebrems: En lavere oljepris gir kraftig
investeringsrevers på norsk sokkel. Gir ringvirkninger i
fastlandsbedriftene, arbeidsmarkedet, lønnsoppgjørene og
boligmarkedet.
• Landingen blir myk, støtdempere virker. Penge- og
finanspolitikk, solide husholdninger, svak krone.
• Flyktningestrømmen gir ekstra usikkerhet om
arbeidsmarked, boligmarked, finanspolitiske impulser
Memo
Valuta- og renteanslag
Policy rates
21-Nov-15
May-16 Nov-16
0.50
0.75
0.10
0.10
-0.05
-0.05
0.75
1.25
-0.45
-0.45
0.50
0.25
-1.00
-1.00
USA: Fed Funds
Japan: Day-to-day
Euro: Repo
UK: Base rate
Sweden: Repo
Norway: Folio
Switzerland: 3M Libor CHF
24-Nov-15 Feb-16
0.25
0.50
0.10
0.10
0.05
-0.05
0.50
0.50
-0.35
-0.45
0.75
0.50
-0.75
-1.00
3-month money market rates
Country
USA
Japan
Euro
U.K.
Sweden
Norway
Switzerland
21-Nov-15
24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16
0.40
0.55
0.75
1.00
0.07
0.15
0.15
0.15
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
-0.10
0.57
0.65
0.90
1.35
-0.39
-0.35
-0.35
-0.25
1.19
0.85
0.80
0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
10-year swap rates
Country
USA
Japan
Euro area
U.K.
Sweden
Norway
Switzerland
Source: DNB Markets
21-Nov-15
24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16
2.09
2.25
2.25
2.50
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.85
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.80
2.00
2.00
2.25
1.36
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.85
1.75
1.50
1.50
0.05
0.25
0.25
0.25
Exchange rates
EURNOK
USDJPY
EURUSD
EURGBP
EURSEK
EURCHF
USDCNY
Exchange rates (calculated)
SEKNOK
USDNOK
GBPNOK
JPYNOK
DKKNOK
CHFNOK
KKI
Source: DNB Markets
21-Nov-15
24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16
9.22
9.30
9.10
9.00
122.6
123
125
125
1.06
1.06
1.08
1.10
0.70
0.68
0.67
0.70
9.26
9.40
9.10
9.00
1.08
1.08
1.10
1.15
6.39
6.55
6.70
7.00
21-Nov-15
24-Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Nov-16
99.57 98.94 100.00 100.00
8.66
8.77
8.43
8.18
13.08 13.68 13.58 12.86
7.07
7.13
6.74
6.55
124
125
122
121
851
861
827
783
115.5 116.5 114.5 112.0
Important/Disclaimer
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