Hvor er smerteterskelen i markedet for laks
Dyr og sårbar Hvor er smerteterskelen for laks i markdet? 1. desember 2015 «Once upon a time…» 2005 40.00 35.00 NOK per kilo 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Price Cost EBIT margin 19% 2• Ti år senere 40.00 35.00 NOK per kilo 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Price Cost EBIT margin 25% 2005-2015: Pris: + 15 per kilo (60%) Kost; + 10 per kilo (50%) 3• Men, er det så nøye da? «Hele verden» forventer marginøkning 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E2016E2017E Price Cost 4• Sårbarhet er et stikkord – Case 1: Chile i Brasil markedet 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 Y2014 Y2015 W51 W49 W47 W45 W43 W41 W39 W37 W35 W33 W31 W29 W27 W25 W23 W21 W19 W17 W15 W13 W9 W11 W7 W5 W3 0 W1 USD per kilo HOG w eight 7 Cost (incl freight) 5• Sårbarhet er et stikkord – Case 2: Chile i USA markedet 12.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 W1 W3 W5 W7 W9 W11 W13 W15 W17 W19 W21 W23 W25 W27 W29 W31 W33 W35 W37 W39 W41 W43 W45 W47 W49 W51 USD per kilo 10.00 2014 2015 Cost 6• Hvor er smerteterskelen? 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 Pris 2009 2010 2005 kost 2011 2012 2013 2016E kost 2014 2015E 7• Hvor er smerteterskelen? Faktisk EBIT margin 2005-15E 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E -10 % -20 % -30 % 8• Hvor er smerteterskelen? EBIT margin gitt 2016 kost 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E -10 % -20 % -30 % EBIT margin gitt 2016 kost Faktisk ebit margin 9• Dyrebar ja, men definitivt også sårbar • Snittpris 2005-2015E NOK 32,05 per kilo • Snittkost i samme periode NOK 24,50 per kilo • Snittmargin har vært NOK 7,55 per kilo (23,6%) • I snitt ti år nær grensen for supersyklus (EBIT margin > 25%) • Men; med dette prisbildet og en kost på NOK 31 per kilo, er snittmarginen kun 1,05 per kilo, eller skarve 3,3% EBIT margin. Da er vi fort på «case Chile». • Vi er helt avhengig av at den nye normalprisen er NOK 37-40 per kilo for å opprettholde avkastning på sysselsatt kapital. • 3 jokere for videre utvikling 10 • Joker 1: Norske kroner 11 • Joker 1 (forts.) Norske kroner – hva betyr dette for laks? 12 • Joker 2: Nullvekst på tilbudssiden = høye priser? 13 • Meat 10/2015 7/2015 4/2015 1/2015 10/2014 7/2014 4/2014 1/2014 10/2013 7/2013 4/2013 1/2013 10/2012 7/2012 4/2012 1/2012 10/2011 7/2011 4/2011 1/2011 10/2010 7/2010 4/2010 1/2010 10/2009 7/2009 4/2009 1/2009 Joker 3: Andre proteiner 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Salmon 14 • www.nordea.com/equitydisclosure This transmission is intended solely for the person or entity to whom it is addressed. It may contain privileged and confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please be notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmission by mistake, please let us know and then delete it from your system. Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. The views have been provided solely based on the information made available to Nordea Markets and for the purposes of presenting the services made available by Nordea Markets. This notice does not substitute the judgement of the recipient. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. Relevant professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets.
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