Dyr og sårbar
Hvor er smerteterskelen for laks i markdet?
1. desember 2015
«Once upon a time…» 2005
40.00
35.00
NOK per kilo
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Price
Cost
EBIT margin 19%
2•
Ti år senere
40.00
35.00
NOK per kilo
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Price
Cost
EBIT margin 25%
2005-2015:
Pris:
+ 15 per kilo (60%)
Kost;
+ 10 per kilo (50%)
3•
Men, er det så nøye da? «Hele verden» forventer marginøkning
50.00
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E2016E2017E
Price
Cost
4•
Sårbarhet er et stikkord – Case 1: Chile i Brasil markedet
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
Y2014
Y2015
W51
W49
W47
W45
W43
W41
W39
W37
W35
W33
W31
W29
W27
W25
W23
W21
W19
W17
W15
W13
W9
W11
W7
W5
W3
0
W1
USD per kilo HOG w eight
7
Cost (incl freight)
5•
Sårbarhet er et stikkord – Case 2: Chile i USA markedet
12.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
W1
W3
W5
W7
W9
W11
W13
W15
W17
W19
W21
W23
W25
W27
W29
W31
W33
W35
W37
W39
W41
W43
W45
W47
W49
W51
USD per kilo
10.00
2014
2015
Cost
6•
Hvor er smerteterskelen?
45.00
40.00
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
2005
2006
2007 2008
Pris
2009 2010
2005 kost
2011 2012 2013
2016E kost
2014 2015E
7•
Hvor er smerteterskelen? Faktisk EBIT margin 2005-15E
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015E
-10 %
-20 %
-30 %
8•
Hvor er smerteterskelen? EBIT margin gitt 2016 kost
50 %
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015E
-10 %
-20 %
-30 %
EBIT margin gitt 2016 kost
Faktisk ebit margin
9•
Dyrebar ja, men definitivt også sårbar
• Snittpris 2005-2015E
NOK 32,05 per kilo
• Snittkost i samme periode
NOK 24,50 per kilo
• Snittmargin har vært
NOK 7,55 per kilo (23,6%)
• I snitt ti år nær grensen for supersyklus
(EBIT margin > 25%)
• Men; med dette prisbildet og en kost på NOK 31 per kilo, er snittmarginen kun
1,05 per kilo, eller skarve 3,3% EBIT margin. Da er vi fort på «case Chile».
• Vi er helt avhengig av at den nye normalprisen er NOK 37-40 per kilo for å
opprettholde avkastning på sysselsatt kapital.
• 3 jokere for videre utvikling
10 •
Joker 1: Norske kroner
11 •
Joker 1 (forts.) Norske kroner – hva betyr dette for laks?
12 •
Joker 2: Nullvekst på tilbudssiden = høye priser?
13 •
Meat
10/2015
7/2015
4/2015
1/2015
10/2014
7/2014
4/2014
1/2014
10/2013
7/2013
4/2013
1/2013
10/2012
7/2012
4/2012
1/2012
10/2011
7/2011
4/2011
1/2011
10/2010
7/2010
4/2010
1/2010
10/2009
7/2009
4/2009
1/2009
Joker 3: Andre proteiner
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
Salmon
14 •
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