Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Sjefanalytiker Makro/Olje (Ph. D.)
Mars 2015 @ThinaSaltvedt
Lave
oljepriser
kan bremse
utvinningen
på norsk
sokkel
Russland
Major US shale plays
Total Oil production
12000
10000
In thousand barrels per day
4 000
Den nye oljeordenen
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
Natural Gas Liquids
8000
6000
4000
2000
jul08
mai09 mar10
Bakken
jan11
Eagle Ford
nov11
Permian
sep12
jul13
mai14
Niobrara
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2012
118
109
109
110
112
2013
113
103
108
107
108
2014
108
110
103
77
100
2015E
55
60
65
69
62
2016E
70
72
77
79
75
2•
Niels From • 16 August 2012
jan.14
jan.13
jan.12
jan.11
jan.10
jan.09
jan.08
jan.07
jan.06
jan.05
jan.04
jan.03
jan.00
0
500
0
sep07
Nonconventional Oils
Crude Oil
jan.02
4 500
USA
kb/d
jan.01
5 000
Transport oljemarkedets siste skanse
- men skifte til annen energi kan gå fort!
120
Million barrels per day
100
Power generation 6.5%
Industry 5.5%
Buildings 9%
80
Other 13%
Petrochemicals 12%
60
40
Transport 54%
20
0
1990
2013
2020
2025
Kilde: IEA
2030
3•
Markedsandel
elektriske og hybrid
biler i 2012 og 2013
Kina planlegger å øke el-bilflåten
til 5 millioner kjøretøy innen 2020
Den global naturgass
bilflåten øker raskt, men
fra svært lave nivåer
Source: NGV
4•
Verdens avhengighet til olje avtar med energi effektivisering og
økt konkurranse i transportsektoren
100
Base
Kina:
• 5 millioner gassbiler
innen 2015
• 5 millioner el-biler
innen 2020
98
Mill fat pr dag
Subsidier:
• Fjerne alle subsidier vil
kutte etterspørselen 4.7
mb/d
96
Intensity (-23,5%)
Intensity (-25%)
94
92
90
88
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5•
Fra kartell til markedsandel
Kartellpris USD 110/fatet
Markedskonkurransepris USD 80-85/fatet
6•
Investeringsoppgangen i all hovedsak prisdrevet
Høyere priser gjorde det lønnsomt å utvikle felt med høye kostnader
7•
• 08/01/2015
Breakeven oljepris for at prosjektet skal bli lønnsomt/igangsettes
Dagens oljepris
Kilde: Rystad Energi og Nordea Markets
8•
Endringer i etterspørselen øker risikoen for «Stranded assets»
- også i Norge. Klima på agendaen i 2015!
9•
Kilde: DNV GL og Nordea Markets
Flytende havvindmøller
Flytende borerigger
Grunnvarmeboring
Oljeboring
10 •
Contact details:
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.)
Commodities Research
Nordea Markets
Phone: +47 22 48 79 93
Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75
[email protected]
@ThinaSaltvedt
11 •
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