Et utfordrende marked
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt,
Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.)
@ThinaSaltvedt
Oljeprisen – lavere lenger…
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
2014
108
110
103
77
100
2015E
55
64
50
47
54
2016E
50
53
56
59
55
2017E
60
63
67
70
65
2•
Et tilbakeblikk – From bad to worse…
Before OPEC meeting Nov 2014
First Iran deadline 2015
At the
bottom Jan
2015
September 2015
Source: Bloomberg
3•
Drukner i Olje
USAs skiferproduksjon eksploderte i 2008
5•
Skiferproduksjonen er mer resistent mot lavere priser enn antatt
6 000
Major US shale plays
Total Oil production
kb/d
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
okt08
jul09
apr10 jan11 okt11
Bakken
Eagle Ford
jul12
Permian
apr13 jan14 okt14
jul15
Niobrara
6•
Source: EIA
OPEC – Oversvømmer markedet med billig olje
32
OPEC Supply
Call-on-OPEC 2015
Quota
31,5
31
30,5
30
OPEC Quota
29,5
29
CallonOPEC
28,5
28
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Mai
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Des
Nov
Okt
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Mai
Apr
Mar
Feb
27,5
7•
Source: IEA and Nordea Markets
Iran vil bli et viktig bidrag i 2016
US/EU sanctions
on oil industry
3700
3300
Sanctions on oil
insurance and
transport
US sanctions
on Iranian
3100
banks
Framework
2900
Accord
agreed
Deadline
2700
Joint Plan
of Action
8•
sep.15
mai.15
jan.15
sep.14
mai.14
jan.14
sep.13
mai.13
jan.13
sep.12
mai.12
jan.12
sep.11
mai.11
2500
jan.11
Thousand barrels per day
3500
Sanction
removed
+ 700k
b/d
Tilbudsoverskuddet vil vare godt inn i 2017
98,0
96,0
Supply
Demand
USD per barrel
94,0
92,0
90,0
88,0
86,0
84,0
82,0
9•
Hva skjer hvis Midtøsten fortsetter å investere mens vi kutter?
800000
E&P Expenditure in MUSD
700000
Europe
Europe
America N
Middle East
600000
500000
400000
300000
North America
200000
100000
0
Middle East
Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets
10 •
Fra kartell til markedsandel – en ny prisæra
Cartel price USD 110/barrel
11 •
Hvor avhengige
er vi av olje?
Et kraftig fall i oljeprisen er bra for
verdensøkonomien
13 •
Største nedside risiko - en gjelds-/eiendomsboble
som sprekker i Kina
14
Transport er den siste bastionen
- men overgangen til andre energiformer
kan gå fort!
120
Million barrels per day
100
Power generation 6.5%
Industry 5.5%
Buildings 9%
80
Other 13%
Petrochemicals 12%
60
40
Transport 54%
20
0
1990
2013
2020
2025
15 •
Source: IEA
2030
Klima og forurensingsproblemer krever endring –
Kina møter store helseproblemer og fallende levealder
16 •
Risiko for «Stranded assets»
Klima på agendaen i 2015!
17 •
Source: DNV GL and Nordea Markets
Ekstraordinære
endringer
underveis i
energisektoren :
Saudi Arabia,
verdens største
råoljeeksportør,
kan fase ut
fossilenergi
innen midten av
dette århundre
sier
Oljeminister, Ali
al-Naimi
Here comes the
sun…
18 •
Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss…
Norge ledende på el-bil
Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene
allerede nede på 2020 nivå
Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015
19 •
Ny batteriteknologi kan endre
energimarkedene radikalt
Teslas Power Wall får
konkurranse fra tyske Daimler
og danske Lithium Balance
20
Utfordringer i kø fremover
Vi er neppe ferdig med nedturen…
22
15.09.2015
Hvilke felt er mest utsatt med
dagens oljepris på USD
50/fatet?
Wisting
Johan Castberg
Gotha/Alta
Goliat
Kristin
Åsgård
Njord
Ormen Lange
Snorre
Late Life
Liten risiko under USD 50/f
Edvard
Grieg
Johan Sverdrup
Ekofisk
King Lear
Middels risiko litt over USD
50/f
Høy risiko over USD +50/f
23 •
24 •
Aasgard
Kvitebjorn
Heidrun
Tor
Edvard Grieg
Skarv
Njord
Valhall
Hod
Visund
Kristin
Grane
Ekofisk West
Linnorm
Ormen Lange
Gjoa
Ekofisk West
Frigg Gamma/Delta
King Lear
Wisting
Alta/Gohta
Snorre
Johan Castberg
Johan Sverdrup
EP Expenditure in MUSD
Investeringer – Johan Sverdrup er uten
sammenligning det viktigste
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Source: Rystad Energy and Nordea Markets
Antall ansatte i
offshore,
leverandør, operatør
indirekte sysselsatte
25 •
Kilde: IRIS 2014
Østfold:
Flest i
leverandør
industrien og
indirekte
sysselsatte
Kilde: IRIS 2014
26 •
Oljeprisfallet rammer fastlandet…..
27
15.09.2015
Oljenedturen har så langt preget Vestlandet…
28
9.75
9.55
9.35
9.15
8.95
8.75
8.55
8.35
8.15
7.95
7.75
09Sep13
NOK expected to
regain some
strength against
EUR and…
28Jun14
EURNOK
16Apr15
Forward
02Feb16
Nordea
20Nov16
08Sep17
Consensus
…but weaken
further against
USD, when FED
starts to hike
29 •
… against SEK within the next six months
1.035
1.015
0.995
0.975
0.955
0.935
0.915
0.895
0.875
16Sep13
05Jul14
SEKNOK
23Apr15
Forward
09Feb16
Nordea
27Nov16
Consensus
30 •
15Sep17
Inflasjonen vil forbli lav …
31
15.09.2015
…og Norges Bank kutter igjen
Norges Banks styringsrente
32
15.09.2015
Boligprisveksten - vil dra med seg forbruk og
boligbygging
Bankene kutter rentene
33
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.)
Economic Research
Nordea Markets
Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt
Phone: +47 22 48 79 93
Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75
[email protected]
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