1/18/2016 En tung start på det nye året Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Sjefanalytiker Makro/Olje (Ph. D.) @ThinaSaltvedt Cost inflation shock Oljeprisen fra 1988… 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 113 103 110 109 108 103 77 100 Average108price 110 2016: USD 49/barrel 2015 55 64 51 46 54 Average43 price 462017: USD 65/barrel 2016E 52 56 49 2014 2017E 60 63 67 70 65 Financial crises Flooded with oil 2 1 1/18/2016 Source: IEA 3 Markedet drukner i olje 2 1/18/2016 US shale (tight) oil production more resistant to lower prices Major US shale plays Total Oil production 6,0 mb/d 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 feb09 okt09 jun10 feb11 okt11 jun12 feb13 okt13 jun14 feb15 okt15 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Niobrara Soure: EIA 5 Global drop in upstream investments by around 15% in 2016 1 400 000 In million USD 1 200 000 North America Europe Russia Middle East Large IOCs down by 10% 1 000 000 800 000 NA Independents 600 000 -27% 400 000 -17% -1% +1% 200 000 0 Source: Rystad Energy 6• 3 1/18/2016 Iran will be an important contribution in 2016 Sanction removed + 700k b/d Source: IEA 7• Fiscal budget B/E prices 350 2012 USD per barrel 300 2015 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: IMF and SWFI 8 4 1/18/2016 States bordering Isis territory (in red) accounts for 24.3% of total world oil production or around 22 mb/d. Countries with large supply outages (in lilac) Turkey Tunisia 0.1% Syria Iraq Lebanon Israel 3.8% Jordan Marocco Algeria 1.6% Libya 0.6% Egypt 0.8% Sudan 0.1% Iran 4% Kuwait 3.6% Saudi Arabia 12.9% Yemen 0.2% Qatar 2.0% UAE 4.0% Oman 1.1% South Sudan 0.2% Source: British Petroleum 9• Dyrere norsk olje skvises ut av billig olje fra Midtøsten – tvinger frem en omstilling og kostnadskutt 10 • 5 1/18/2016 Er vi helt avhengig av olje? Transport er oljemarkedets siste skanse - men skifte til annen energi går fort! 120 Million barrels per day 100 Kraftsektoren 6.5% Industri 5.5% Bygninger 9% 80 Annet 13% Petrokjemi 12% 60 40 Transport 54% 20 0 1990 2013 12 • 2020 2025 2030 Kilde: IEA 6 1/18/2016 Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss… Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede nede på 2020 nivå Norge ledende på el-bil Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015 13 • Det teknologiske skiftet går fort: Easter Parade New York 1900 versus 1913 1913 Hvor er hesten? 1900: Hvor er bilen? 14 7 1/18/2016 Oljenedturen smitter B/E pris for planlagte prosjekter på NKS 16 Kilde: Rystad Energy 8 1/18/2016 Ansatte i virksomhet er med leveranser av varer og tjenester til petroleums virksomhet en Kilde: IRIS 17 • Store regionale forskjeller i ledighetsøkning 18 18.01.2016 9 1/18/2016 Kronesjokket 19 I 2013 20 18.01.2016 10 1/18/2016 2015: 3 av 4 kontrakter til Norge 21 18.01.2016 Eksporten har blitt mer konkurransedyktig – fiskeeksporten går så det suser. Flere turister strømmer til Norge Kilde: Destinasjon Geirangerfjord 22 11 1/18/2016 Teknologioverføringer er allerede i gang… Havbruk Kilde: Nordlaks Deep Sea Mining Operation – et samarbeidsp rosjekt ved GCE NODE nettverket Kristiansand Kilde: Sysla Offshore Wind Support Vessel - Ulsteinvik Det digitale skiftet og høyteknologiske løsninger 23 Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. 24 12 1/18/2016 Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.) Economic Research Nordea Markets Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt Phone: +47 22 48 79 93 Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75 [email protected] 13