160118 Oil Fosnavåg Thina Saltvedt Nordea

1/18/2016
En tung start på det
nye året
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt,
Sjefanalytiker Makro/Olje (Ph. D.)
@ThinaSaltvedt
Cost inflation
shock
Oljeprisen fra 1988…
2013
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Year
113
103
110
109
108
103
77
100
Average108price 110
2016: USD
49/barrel
2015
55
64
51
46
54
Average43 price 462017: USD
65/barrel
2016E
52
56
49
2014
2017E
60
63
67
70
65
Financial
crises
Flooded
with oil
2
1
1/18/2016
Source:
IEA
3
Markedet drukner i olje
2
1/18/2016
US shale (tight) oil production more resistant to lower
prices
Major US shale plays
Total Oil production
6,0
mb/d
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
feb09 okt09 jun10 feb11 okt11 jun12 feb13 okt13 jun14 feb15 okt15
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Permian
Niobrara
Soure: EIA
5
Global drop in upstream investments by around 15% in 2016
1 400 000
In million USD
1 200 000
North America
Europe
Russia
Middle East
Large IOCs down by 10%
1 000 000
800 000
NA Independents
600 000
-27%
400 000
-17%
-1%
+1%
200 000
0
Source: Rystad Energy
6•
3
1/18/2016
Iran will be an important contribution in 2016
Sanction
removed
+ 700k b/d
Source: IEA
7•
Fiscal budget B/E prices
350
2012
USD per barrel
300
2015
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: IMF and SWFI
8
4
1/18/2016
States bordering Isis territory (in red) accounts for 24.3%
of total world oil production or around 22 mb/d.
Countries with large supply outages (in lilac)
Turkey
Tunisia
0.1%
Syria
Iraq
Lebanon
Israel
3.8%
Jordan
Marocco
Algeria
1.6%
Libya
0.6%
Egypt
0.8%
Sudan
0.1%
Iran
4%
Kuwait 3.6%
Saudi
Arabia
12.9%
Yemen
0.2%
Qatar 2.0%
UAE 4.0%
Oman
1.1%
South Sudan
0.2%
Source: British Petroleum
9•
Dyrere norsk olje skvises ut av billig olje fra Midtøsten –
tvinger frem en omstilling og kostnadskutt
10 •
5
1/18/2016
Er vi helt avhengig av olje?
Transport er oljemarkedets siste skanse
- men skifte til annen energi går fort!
120
Million barrels per day
100
Kraftsektoren 6.5%
Industri 5.5%
Bygninger 9%
80
Annet 13%
Petrokjemi 12%
60
40
Transport 54%
20
0
1990
2013
12 •
2020
2025
2030
Kilde: IEA
6
1/18/2016
Teknologiskiftet går fortere enn vi klarer å forestille oss…
Bilbatteriteknologi: Kostandene allerede
nede på 2020 nivå
Norge ledende på el-bil
Kilde: Norsk Elbilforening (2014) og Nykvist og Nilsson, 2015
13 •
Det teknologiske skiftet går fort:
Easter Parade New York 1900 versus 1913
1913 Hvor er hesten?
1900: Hvor er bilen?
14
7
1/18/2016
Oljenedturen smitter
B/E pris for planlagte prosjekter på NKS
16
Kilde: Rystad Energy
8
1/18/2016
Ansatte i
virksomhet
er med
leveranser
av varer og
tjenester til
petroleums
virksomhet
en
Kilde: IRIS
17 •
Store regionale forskjeller i ledighetsøkning
18
18.01.2016
9
1/18/2016
Kronesjokket
19
I 2013
20
18.01.2016
10
1/18/2016
2015: 3 av 4 kontrakter til Norge
21
18.01.2016
Eksporten har blitt mer konkurransedyktig – fiskeeksporten
går så det suser. Flere turister strømmer til Norge
Kilde: Destinasjon Geirangerfjord
22
11
1/18/2016
Teknologioverføringer er allerede i gang…
Havbruk
Kilde: Nordlaks
Deep Sea
Mining
Operation –
et
samarbeidsp
rosjekt ved
GCE NODE
nettverket
Kristiansand
Kilde: Sysla
Offshore Wind Support Vessel
- Ulsteinvik
Det digitale skiftet og
høyteknologiske løsninger
23
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12
1/18/2016
Thina Margrethe Saltvedt
Chief Analyst Macro/Oil (Ph. D.)
Economic Research
Nordea Markets
Twitter: @ThinaSaltvedt
Phone: +47 22 48 79 93
Mobile: +47 90 63 40 75
[email protected]
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