1. style and fashion
2. jewelry
3. bracelets

SKAGEN Vekst
Statusrapport – november 2015
Hovedtrekk – november 2015
• November måned ble på ingen måte like sterk som oktober. SKAGEN Vekst leverte en avkastning på
0,6 prosent, betydelig svakere enn referanseindeksens oppgang på 2,7 prosent .
• De beste bidragsyterne i november var Norsk Hydro, Oriflame Cosmetics og Lundin Petroleum, mens
Samsung Electronics, Wilhelm Wilhelmsen og Norwegian bidro på den negative siden.
• Siste måneds avkastningstall ble noe preget av et lite tilbakefall på våre to koreanere, Samsung og
Kia, samt svak utvikling i noen av våre norske investeringer. I disse norske papirene har vi sett økt
salgspress på børs selv om de siste rapportene har vist en klar resultatforbedring.
• To nye investeringer ble tatt inn i fondet i løpet av november. Det svenske kommunikasjon- og
teknologiselskapet LM Ericsson og den amerikanske eggprodusenten Cal-Main Foods. I tillegg økte vi
beholdningen i Norwegian etter at aksjen ble kraftig solgt ned på en potensiell seteavgift samt økt
terrorfrykt. Det malaysiskbaserte flyselskapet Air Asia ble solgt helt ut av porteføljen, mens
beholdningen ble redusert noe i Kia Motors og Danske Bank.
• Så langt har 2015 vært et utfordrende år i relative termer for SKAGEN Vekst. En betydelig
eksponering (18 prosent) mot norske aksjer har bidratt negativt da det norske markedet har
underlevert i forhold til fondets indeks (8% versus 17%). De fleste av våre langsiktige investeringer har
imidlertid utviklet seg bra og vi vil fortsette arbeidet med å øke kvaliteten på underliggende selskaper,
noe som vil gi seg utslag i solid absolutt avkastning fremover.
* Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer.
2
A
Avkastning, november 2015
A
SKAGEN Vekst A
Referanseindeks*
Relativ avkastning
November QTD
Hittil i år 1 år
3 år
5 år
10 år
Siden start*
0,6%
8,1%
6,9%
10,1%
16,8%
7,5%
7,3%
14,5%
2,7%
8,6%
18,1%
22,4%
23,3%
15,0%
10,1%
10,7%
-2,0%
-0,5%
-11,2%
-12,4%
-6,5%
-7,5%
-2,8%
3,8%
Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: 1 desember 1993.
**Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet
investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs
Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country
World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX).
3
Årlig avkastning siden start* (%)
SKAGEN Vekst A (NOK)
Referanseindeks (NOK)
77
66
48
48
38 40
32
32 32
46
39 32
29 32
65
19 15
12
7
48
10 11
-6
-27
-2 -2 -1
-17
-22
15 16
25 29 23
18
15
12
10
7
-9
-20
-31
-44
-54
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hittil
i
2015
Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). *Startdato: 01.12.1993.
**Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet
investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs
Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country
World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX).
4
Markedsutvikling i november i NOK (%)
BRASIL
UNGARN
IRLAND
RUSSLAND
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA
DANMARK
JAPAN
ØSTERRIKE
AUSTRALIA
FINLAND
USA
MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic
MEXICO
TYSKLAND
KOREA
SVERIGE
NEDERLAND
NORGE
SKAGEN Vekst A
TAIWAN
STORBRITANNIA
THAILAND
FRANKRIKE
SVEITS
KINA
ITALIA
NEW ZEALAND
HONG KONG
TYRKIA
SPANIA
INDIA
CANADA
SINGAPORE
PORTUGAL
TSJEKKIA
SØR-AFRIKA
POLEN
5
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-8
0
0
2
2
3
3
Markedsutvikling hittil i 2015 i NOK (%)
UNGARN
DANMARK
RUSSLAND
IRLAND
JAPAN
ITALIA
NEDERLAND
ØSTERRIKE
USA
FRANKRIKE
MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic
FINLAND
TYSKLAND
SVEITS
HONG KONG
KOREA
STORBRITANNIA
PORTUGAL
SVERIGE
KINA
INDIA
MEXICO
SKAGEN Vekst A
TAIWAN
NORGE
SPANIA
NEW ZEALAND
AUSTRALIA
SØR-AFRIKA
THAILAND
TSJEKKIA
SINGAPORE
CANADA
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
POLAND
TYRKIA
BRASIL
6
45
32
32
30
25
21
20
19
18
18
18
17
16
15
14
12
12
12
11
9
8
7
7
5
4
4
3
3
-3
-3
-3
-5
-6
-7
-7
-17
-27
-12
Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo november 2015
SKAGEN Vekst har 54 prosent investert i de nordiske landene
Posisjonens
Pris
størrelse
P/E
P/E
P/B
Kurs
2015e
2016e
2017e
trailing
mål
Samsung Electronics
7,5 %
1 096 000
6,9
6,6
6,2
1,0
1 500 000
Continental AG
6,8 %
228
15,7
12,5
11,0
3,7
298
Norsk Hydro
6,0 %
34
16,8
13,4
9,6
1,0
45
Citigroup
5,6 %
54
8,6
8,4
7,6
0,8
77
Carlsberg
5,3 %
601
17,2
13,7
12,0
2,0
822
SAP
4,8 %
75
22,4
19,8
18,7
4,7
91
Teliasonera
4,2 %
43
10,7
10,7
11,0
1,8
50
Philips
4,1 %
26
21,6
18,5
12,9
2,2
30
ABB
4,1 %
165
14,9
11,0
9,7
3,1
250
Norwegian Air Shuttle
3,9 %
292
14,6
7,7
5,8
3,3
500
Vektet topp 10
52,4 %
12,5
10,6
9,2
1,57
35 %
Vektet topp 35
91,9 %
13,0
10,8
9,3
1,35
45 %
17,0
15,7
14,3
2,10
Referanseindeks
7
P/E
Største bidragsytere november 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Norsk Hydro ASA
46
##### Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-50
Oriflame Cosmetics AG
31
##### Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
-30
Lundin Petroleum AB
28
##### Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
-22
Carlsberg A/S
22
##### Credit Suisse Group AG
-21
Rec Silicon ASA
17
##### Solstad Offshore ASA
-10
Citigroup Inc
16
##### Kia Motors Corporation
-8
Continental AG
14
##### Teliasonera AB
-7
Koninklijke Philips NV
11
##### Bonheur ASA
-7
Bang & Olufsen A/S
11
##### Yazicilar Holding AS
-5
Fjord Line AS
10
##### Ganger Rolf ASA
-4
Total verdiskapning i november 2015: NOK 74 millioner
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
8
Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Continental AG
145
# Norsk Hydro ASA
-111
SAP SE
101
# Solstad Offshore ASA
-110
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
86
# AirAsia BHD
-77
Carlsberg A/S
72
# Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-61
Danske Bank A/S
65
# DOF ASA
-52
Citigroup Inc
64
# Toshiba Corp
-47
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
63
# Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
-26
Lundin Petroleum AB
57
# Bonheur ASA
-25
Sberbank of Russia
56
# Ganger Rolf ASA
-23
Koninklijke Philips NV
45
# Credit Suisse Group AG
-22
Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
9
NOK 643 millioner
Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015 (per november)
Økte poster
Reduserte poster
Q1
Q1
Roche Holding AG
(Ny)
Kemira OYJ
(Ny)
Frontline 2012 Ltd
(Ny)
Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA
(Ny)
Q2
Q2
Q3
Credit Suisse Group AG
(Ny)
Elekta AB
(Ny)
Solar A/S
(Ny)
H Lundbeck A/S
(Ny)
Golden Ocean Group Ltd
(Ny)
SKF AB
(Ny)
Localiza Rent a Car SA
(Ny)
Q3
SAP SE
Q4
Credit Suisse Group AG
Ericsson
Cal-Maine Foods
(Ny)
(Ny)
Q4
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
(Ut)
Kongsberg Gruppen AS
(Ut)
Getinge AB
(Ut)
Q-Free ASA
(Ut)
Odfjell SE
(Ut)
Toshiba Corp
(Ut)
Nokian Renkaat OYJ
(Ut)
Toto Ltd
(Ut)
Novo Nordisk A/S
(Ut)
Norwegian Finance Holding ASA
(Ut)
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
(Ut)
Sparebanken Ost
(Ut)
Korean Reinsurance Co
(Ut)
OCI Co Ltd
(Ut)
Royal UNIBREW A/S
(Ut)
Siem Offshore Inc
(Ut)
Raiffeisen Bank International AG
(Ut)
Danske Bank A/S
AirAsia Bhd
10
(Ut)
Kjøp og salg, november 2015
Kjøp
Ericsson
• Det svenske mobilteknologi-, nettverk- og service selskapet ble
tatt inn i porteføljen etter at aksjen hadde falt 30 prosent siden
april, mye grunnet svake kvartalsrapporter.
• Et sterk vekst i video-streaming på mobiltelefoner (eksempelvis
Facebook og Snapchat), burde gi grobunn for vekst i
nettverksinvesteringer (4G+) og økt service.
• Ericsson handles til 14 ganger neste års inntjening, og vi
forventer en vekst på oppimot 15 prosent de kommende årene. I
sum anser vi selskapet som attraktivt priset, da særlig sett opp
mot andre store nordiske selskaper.
Salg
AirAsia
• Det Malaysia-baserte lavkost flyselskapet ble solgt ut i
november måned.
• Selskapet har vist en imponerende vekst siste 10 år, men
har i den senere tid møtt på problemer i sine
datterselskaper ( Filippinene og Indonesia)
• Etter at aksjen hadde hentet inn forsommerens kursfall,
valgte vi å selge oss helt ut av selskapet. Vi har fortsatt tro
på at AirAsia er et veldrevet flyselskap med gode
vekstmuligheter, men usikkerheten knyttet til
datterselskapene gjør at vi kan anvende kapitalen bedre i
andre investeringer.
11
Sektor og geografisk fordeling versus referanseindeks (%)
Sektorfordeling
7
Energi
Asia DM
5
Asia EM
6
19
Kapitalvarer,
service og transport
16
13
11
Inntektsavhengige
forbruksvarer
8
14
15
Bank og finans
2
0
Latin Amerika
0
1
Midt Østen
og Afrika
0
0
16
7
8
Nord Amerika
12
Telekom
12
24
10
22
Informasjonsteknologi
Kontanter
3
Europa EM
4
Medisin
Oceania
4
0
1
Kontanter
0
0
24
19
Sverige
54
50
2
0
0
Norden i SKAGEN Vekst
29
Norden
0
Indeks
10
Europa DM,
ekskl. Norden
11
Defensive
konsumvarer
Fond
2
5
7
Råvarer
Nyttetjenester
Geografisk fordeling
Norge
10
Danmark
Finland
1
Nyheter og annet om
porteføljeselskaper
- på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news, November 2015
Continental
(6.8%)
Mixed results for Q3, Tire sales strong – Powertrain weak, guidance forward raised.
Investment case update
Q3 was not as strong as the previous two quarters for the German based tire and car supplier, but this is
no change in trend. Q3 was influenced negatively by four factors; 1)weak China (down 13% QoQ), but
market is back strongly so far in Oct-Nov (with some help from the government). 2) Weaker sale of winter
tires due to warm weather, this has changed in October, and they expect to see FY2015 sales of roughly
21 million winter tires, on par with last year. 3) Negative mix, mainly due to Powertrain. 4) Very weak
mining and oil exploration business. 17 mines closed worldwide in September and YTD there have been
71 closed mines. This has hit ContiTech in the conveyor belt business (ca 25% of ContiTech’s business)
and they do not believe this business will pick up in the near future. Conti increased FY2015 guidance to
above EUR 39bn in revenues (Automotive 23.5 – Rubber 15.5) and hiked margin outlook from ca 11% to
above 11% (Auto above 8.5% and Rubber above 16%) Free cash flow expected to be above EUR
2bn. ROE has been steady around mid-20ies last 4 years, and we do not see any reason why this number
should come down going forward. Strong cash flow generation (above 6% FCF yield), we will keep the
stock until we see the share price above EUR 250.
Unpopular: Not exactly, but 56% sell/hold is not a crowded fan club
Under analyzed: no, wide coverage (32 analysts)
Undervalued: yes, but not as much as it used to be. Even with no growth in rubber division and AutoTech
continue to grow 6% this is a EUR 260-280 stock, and in addition ADAS (advanced driver assistant
system) has a rapid growth (will double revenue from 2015 to 2018.
Fact
Conti reported 9M sales up 14% to EUR 29bn (org sales +3%) and EBIT up by 16% to EUR 3.4bn (EBIT
margin at 12%). Free cash flow at EUR 316 mill, and FCF before acquisitions of EUR 1.5bn. Net debt
slightly up to EUR 4.3bn, equity ratio at 38%. Trailing ROCE up by 230 bps to 21.6%.
14
Key earnings releases and corporate news, November 2015
Carlsberg
(5.3%)
Setting sail for a more profitable future – self-help case getting clearer. Stock up 7% on the news
Investment case update
Carlsberg, the Danish brewer, investment case core is; a stable earner with sub-par profitability to peers
and on route to be improved.
The 3Q15 report confirms the path. Organic sales grew 3% and operating profit grew 9% to a 18.9%
margin. Carlsberg’s annual OP-margin is 14%, while the three large peers (InBev, SAB Miller and
Heineken) do 32%, 20% and 17% respectively. Geographical mix will not enable Carlsberg to reach more
than 17-18%, but the investment thesis only require 15.5% to reach the 856 DKK target price.
Sail 2022 strategy plan will be communicated in March 2016, so the next few months the stock will likely
move higher as Nordic investors a heavy underweight in a stock with market level valuation and 3 times
the growth rate.
Unpopular: yes - it’s shorted, few domestic institutions hold it and it’s perceived as ’Danish Ministry of
Beer’. Sell-siders are 84% sell/hold. Perfect for SKAGEN.
Under analyzed: semi – 35 analysts and it’s a beer company most people know. However, focus is on
the poor historical track record and they don’t buy into the better profitability coming.
Undervalued: yes – EPS is likely to grow 15-20% next few years and stock trades at 16x earnings – in
line with overall market, which has 7% growth. It’s a well-known business model, so execution risk on the
way forward should be limited. Carlsberg has net debt of 32bn DKK (most of it from 2007 acquisition of
Baltika in Russia), they pay 1.4bn DKK in dividend, so it will take them 4-5 years to become debt free
(which would again lift net cash earnings by 1bn DKK per year), so good upside leverage.
Facts
3Q15 report – main elements;
•
•
•
15
Sales 18bn DKK +1%, OP 3.5bn DKK +2%.West Europe sales up 5%, however lower profitability. East
Europe/Russia sales down 23%, but much better profitability as 3Q14 was impacted by write-downs. Asia 18%
sales growth and better profitability due to scale effects.
Restructuring /impairment charge of 8.5bn DKK. 97% non-cash. Will improve profitability by 1.5-2.0bn DKK by
2017 (2/3 will be visible in 2016) to fund investment in future profitability. More details in March 2022 with Sail 2022
strategy plan including working capital improvements.
Will reduce debt and increase shareholder remuneration. M&A off the agenda – VERY good news and Carlsberg’s
M&A history is a textbook of how not to do it.
Key earnings releases and corporate news, October 2015
Oriflame
(1,6%)
Solid Q3 numbers and strong start into Q4, stock rallied 15% on the report
Investment case update
Challenges remain in CIS and Europe, but the development is improving a bit. However, Oriflame
reported once again double digit growth in both LatAm and Turkey, Africa and Asia. These markets now
accounts for close to half of the total sales with an increased contribution to the overall earnings. The YTD
sales development is 2% in local currency and so far Q4 has shown sales of 9% in local
currency. Oriflame aims to achieve sales growth of 10% (local currency) per annum with an operating
margin of 15% (double of today’s margin). If we assume 10% margin and 3-4% sales growth going
forward, ORI SS should be valued above SEK 200.
Unpopular: yes, 82% sell/hold. Huge short interest in the stock
Under analyzed: no, 11 analysts cover the company.
Undervalued: yes, as most focus continue to be on CIS/Russia while the strong growing business (50% of
revenues) is “overlooked”.
Facts
Oriflame reported sales in local currencies increase of 4% and EUR sales decrease of 4% to EUR 263
mill. Sales development was impacted by 9% increase in productivity while the number of consultants
decreased by 5% to 2.8 mill. Unit sales were down by 10%, while the price/mix effect was positive at
14%. The mix effect is driven by a combination of geography and product mix, primarily driven by
Wellness and Skin Care and China still growing triple digits.
16
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst
Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer
electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash
generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas
– solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future.
Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power
trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is
becoming stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term
Continental’s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial
growth.
Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation
headquartered
in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest
.
mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers
Group in October 1998.
Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in
Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in
some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a
34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people.
SAP SE is a German multinational software corporation that makes enterprise software to
manage business operations and customer relations. SAP is headquartered in Walldorf, BadenWürttemberg, with regional offices in 130 countries.
17
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst (continued)
Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers
and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in
markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and
wine.
Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region.
History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe’s
fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile
phone operators in Turkey and Russia.
ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in
robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering
companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in
around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees.
Koninklijke Philips N.V. is a Dutch diversified technology company headquartered in Amsterdam
with primary divisions focused in the areas of electronics, healthcare and lighting. In 2016 it is
expected to list their lighting division in a separate company.
Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2015 expect to fly
over 26m passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving
the concept of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach.
18
Mean reversion
Ericsson LM (ERICB SS) 83 SEK
20%
History and description of business
Founded in 1876 and headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, Ericsson is a global leader in mobile communication network products,
solutions and services. 2015e revenues 245bn SEK and OP 20bn SEK
Networks (52% of revenues and 50% of operating income) develop, produce and market mobile communication infrastructure for
voice and data. Radio panels, base-stations, transmission/backbone solutions via microwave, fiber etc.
Services (43% of revenues and 48%) provide outsourcing of mobile network operation, management and maintenance. Network
migration from 3G to 4G/LTE and next step into 5G mobile networks
Support solutions ( 5% of revenues and 2% of operating income) provide network services that enable network operators to
integrate content services on their platform (media, payment, hosted services)
Geo-split - Americas 34%, Asia 25% (China 13%), Europe 24%, RoW 17%
Number of employees: 118.000 employees – 2m SEK revenue/pax, down from 2.8m in 2003-09 period.
Well known investment case for years – new VoIP services triggered renewed interest
Business model and investment thesis
Swedish engineering with global reach. Mobile communication net works are seeing ever higher data capacity needs driven by video
streaming on smartphones, tablets etc. All mobile com payment platforms moving towards data only – Voice over IP. Company more
streamlined towards networks and service /support and less on production and consumer hardware. Partnership with Cisco
Thesis: Ericsson didn’t get full benefit on 3G, coming back in 4G, but with Huawei rocking the boat and 5G position is good.
ESG: no issues identified – for sub-suppliers Ericsson is ISO 14.001 compliant
Triggers:
1. Shorter term triggers are improved profitability despite soft patch revenues. Apple patent case with 20bn SEK compensation to
Ericsson plus 6bn SEK in annual royalty fee potential.
2. Share count reduction /higher dividends
3. Nokia/Alcatel merger will preoccupy that management team with integration issues. Huawei price dumping being addressed by
EU and new ‘better ROIC’ policies in China. More leverage of patent pool.
4. 5G mobile network build-out and ever more small-cell infrastructure inside buildings
5. Cisco partnership to materialize further (exp 1bn USD increased sales 2018)
Risks
1. Insufficient efficiency gains and continued low price market approach from Huawei and others of the like
2. M&A; history show a patchy record. Rumored Samsung's networks are for sale.
3. Technological obsolete patent pool (very low likeliness)
Target price
With revenues growth of 5% and improved profitability (peers do 13-14% OP-margin we can see operating earnings going from
20bn SEK to 30bn SEK in 2018. At EPS level it’s from 3.60 SEK to 6.25 SEK and with 16x multiple (market level) it’s 20% upside.
On top comes 4% dividend per year for 33% upside over 2-3 years.
0%
80%
Key figures:
Market cap
SEK
NOK
273bn
273bn
Net debt (cash)
No. of shares
A and B shares
SEK
(25)Bn
3.3bn
3 251m
P/E 2015
P/E 2016
P/BV trailing
ROE 2014-16
Yield
Altman Z score
16.8x
13.4x
1.97x
10%
4.3%
3.53x
Daily turnover
SEK
850m
No of analysts
34
with sell/hold
43%
Owners
A-shares: Investor 44%,
Industrivärden 33%, Handdelsbanken
pension 10%
B-shs: Swedbank 6%, Norge Bank 4%
www.ericsson.com
19
Long term value
builder
Special situation
3U for Ericsson
Unpopular
Underanalyzed
• Well known business however with a underperformance over the last 10-12 years.
• Sell-side is mixed and after a disappointing 3Q15 report (lower sales in China a.o.). The
stock is down 30% since April 2015 high in line with other Swedish global exporters.
• Due to long term performance many Swedish investors (ex Investor and Industrivärden)
have lost patience
• No – as a global leader in mobile communication infrastructure Ericsson and it’s
118.000 engineers are good ambassadors to tell about their technological excellences.
Investor trust in management delivering on better profitability is not seen in the stockprice implying its somewhat underanalyzed
•
Undervalued
•
Given it’s historical earnings profile and forward path it’s about fair value at 83-87
SEK. The earnings profile for 2018 could well be above 7.00 per share driven by
profitability improvements, new products, harvesting the patent pool and less price
dumping by Chinese competitors.
Compared with peers Ericsson has more potential for internal improvements, so even
with difficult market conditions earnings can improve.
*
20
In USD
For mer informasjon, vennligst se:
Siste Markedsrapport
Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider
Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av
markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan
bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for
eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette
synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av
finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk
eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er
omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.