SKAGEN Vekst
Statusrapport – juni 2015
Hovedtrekk – juni 2015
• SKAGEN Vekst* var ned 2,1 prosent i juni noe som var mer enn fondets sammensatte
referanseindeksen som var ned 1,8 prosent.
• Målt i NOK var de største positive bidragsyterne i juni Norwegian, Lundin og Continental. Største
negative bidragsytere var Norsk Hydro, Samsung og Air Asia.
• SKAGEN Vekst gjorde noen endringer i porteføljen og gikk inn i Golden Ocean da aksjene ble
mottatt fra vårt innehav i Frontline 2012. Fondet solgte seg ut av den japanske toalettprodusenten
Toto og Bank Norwegian etter veldig god utvikling.
• SKAGEN Vekst topp 10 posisjoner har en vektet oppside på 37 prosent på nåværende verdier.
Fondet har en interessant liste med kandidater, bevist av det faktum at fondets topp 35 selskaper er
forventet å øke med mer enn 47 prosent over de neste 2-3 årene gjennom stigende aksjekurs og
utbyttebetalinger.
• For 2015 og 2016 forventer vi at selskapene i porteføljen viser en årlig gjennomsnittlig
inntjeningsvekst på 20 prosent, noe som tilsier at det er rom for positiv kursutvikling – uavhengig av
om verdsettelsesmultiplene øker eller ikke.
* Om ikke annet er sagt er alle avkastningstall i rapporten for klasse A etter honorarer.
2
Avkastning, juni 2015
A
Juni
SKAGEN Vekst A
Referanseindeks**
Relativ avkastning
QTD
-2,1%
-1,8%
-0,4%
Hittil i år 1 år
3 år
5 år
10 år
Siden start*
-1,4%
3,0%
9,1%
15,5%
9,6%
8,6%
14,6%
-2,8%
9,5%
24,1%
22,4%
16,6%
10,4%
10,5%
1,4%
-6,5%
-15,0%
-6,9%
-7,0%
-1,7%
4,1%
Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 1 desember 1993.
**Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet
investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs
Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country
World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX).
3
Årlig avkastning siden start* (%)
SKAGEN Vekst* (NOK)
Benchmark Index** (NOK)
77
66
19
7
48
48
38 40
32
32 32
46
39 32
29 32
65
48
25
15 12
10 11
-6
-27
-2 -2 -1
-17
-22
15 16
10 12
29
23
15
3
9
-9
-20
-31
-44
-54
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hittil
i
2015
Note: Alle avkastningstall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning). Startdato: 01.12.1993.
**Fondets investeringsmandat ble endret med virkning fra 01.01.2014 fra at fondet investerte minst 50 % av sine midler i Norge til at fondet
investerer minst 50 % av sine midler i Norden. Tilsvarende ble fondets referanseindeks endret fra en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av Oslo Børs
Hovedindeks (OSEBX) og MSCI All Country World til en likt sammensatt referanseindeks av MSCI Nordic Countries IMI Index og MSCI All Country
World Index ex Nordic Countries. Referanseindeks før 01.01.2010 var Oslo Børs Hovedindeks (OSEBX).
4
Markedsutvikling juni 2015 i NOK (%)
Brasil
India
Thailand
Japan
Sør-Afrika
Mexico
Tyrkia
Belgia
Verdensindeksen
USA (S&P 500)
Singapore
Spania
Danmark
Finland
Frankrike
MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic
Sør-Korea
USA (Nasdaq)
Italia
Vekstmarkedsindeksen
Ungarn
Tyskland
Russland
SKAGEN Vekst A
Nederland
Canada
Hong Kong
Norge
Taiwan
Sverige
Storbritannia
Polen
Sveits
Østerrike
Kina (Hong Kong)
Indonesia
Kina (lokal)
5
3
1
1
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-6
-7
-5
1
Markedsutvikling så langt i 2015 i NOK (%)
Kina (lokal)
Ungarn
Russland
Danmark
Japan
Hong Kong
Italia
Kina (Hong Kong)
Sveits
Sør-Korea
Frankrike
MSCI Nordic/MSCI AC ex. Nordic
Østerrike
Nederland
USA (Nasdaq)
Norge
Taiwan
Verdensindeksen
Vekstmarkedsindeksen
Tyskland
Belgia
Storbritannia
Sverige
Finland
USA (S&P 500)
India
Sør-Afrika
Thailand
Mexico
Spania
Singapore
SKAGEN Vekst A
Polen
Canada
Brasil
Indonesia
Tyrkia
6
39
27
27
24
21
19
17
16
12
12
11
9
9
9
9
9
6
6
5
5
4
3
3
3
0
-2
-5
-7
-10
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
Største bidragsyterne i juni 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
36
##### Norsk Hydro ASA
-50
Lundin Petroleum AB
22
##### Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-46
Continental AG
18
##### AirAsia BHD
-38
Citigroup Inc
12
##### Solstad Offshore ASA
-23
Danske Bank A/S
8
##### Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
-17
Teliasonera AB
7
##### Koninklijke Philips NV
-16
Oriflame Cosmetics AG
7
##### DOF ASA
-14
Credit Suisse Group AG
6
##### Kia Motors Corporation
-13
Frontline 2012 Ltd
4
##### SAP SE
-12
Bonheur ASA
1
##### Volvo AB
-11
Total verdiskapning i juni 2015: NOK -199 millioner
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
7
Største bidragsytere i 2. kvartal 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
133
Selskap
1E+08 Norsk Hydro ASA
NOK millioner
-118
Lundin Petroleum AB
44
4E+07 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
-86
Danske Bank A/S
30
3E+07 Toshiba Corp
-62
Carlsberg A/S
22
2E+07 AirAsia BHD
-52
Golar LNG Ltd
20
2E+07 Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-30
Citigroup Inc
16
2E+07 Koninklijke Philips NV
-22
Wilh Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
14
1E+07 Solstad Offshore ASA
-20
Ganger Rolf ASA
11
1E+07 Rec Silicon ASA
-20
SBI Holdings Inc
11
1E+07 Teliasonera AB
-18
Korean Reinsurance Co
10
1E+07 SAP SE
-15
Total verdiskapning i 2. kvartal 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
8
NOK -123 millioner
Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK millioner
Selskap
NOK millioner
Continental AG
84
# Norsk Hydro ASA
Norwegian Air Shuttle AS
77
# Solstad Offshore ASA
-82
Carlsberg A/S
54
# AirAsia BHD
-67
Danske Bank A/S
54
# DOF ASA
-52
Lundin Petroleum AB
51
# Toshiba Corp
-45
Volvo AB
48
# Kia Motors Corporation
-36
Novo Nordisk A/S
32
# Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
-24
SBI Holdings Inc
29
# Siem Offshore Inc
-18
Nokian Renkaat OYJ
28
# Eidesvik Offshore ASA
-11
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
27
# Electromagnetic GeoServices AS
-11
Totale verdiskspning hittil i 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absoluttavkastning
9
NOM 302 millioner
-119
Største beholdninger i SKAGEN Vekst, ultimo juni 2015
SKAGEN Vekst har 54,8% investert i de nordiske landene
Vekt i
Pris
porteføljen
P/E
P/E
P/B
Kurs-
2014e
2015e
2016e
trailing
mål
Samsung Electronics
7,0 %
993 000
6,3
5,8
5,9
0,9
1 500 000
Norwegian Air Shuttle
6,2 %
325
NEG
10,5
8,6
5,4
340
Continental AG
6,1 %
213
17,9
13,7
11,9
4,0
275
Norsk Hydro
5,8 %
33
25,4
9,4
8,3
0,9
58
Citigroup
5,2 %
55
12,0
9,2
8,0
0,8
75
Teliasonera AB
5,0 %
49
14,6
12,4
12,2
1,9
70
Danske Bank A/S
4,8 %
197
15,5
11,7
11,5
1,3
205
Carlsberg
4,5 %
608
18,7
16,0
13,5
1,8
750
ABB
4,2 %
174
19,3
14,4
12,4
3,1
250
Kia Motors
Vektet gjennomsnitt
topp 10
Vektet gjennomsnitt
topp 35
3,6 %
45 300
6,2
6,3
6,1
0,8
75 000
52,4 %
15,3
9,7
8,9
1,39
37 %
90,6 %
16,7
10,8
9,3
1,29
47 %
17,5
15,2
13,8
2,28
Referanseindeksen
10
P/E
Kjøp og salg, juni 2015
Kjøp
Golden Ocean Group
• Som et spesialutbytte til aksjonærene i Frontline 2012 ble de
underliggende aksjene i GOGL fordelt ut til aksjonærene.
• Selskapet eier en av verdens største og mest moderne flåte med
bulkskip. På samme tid som fraktratene nærmer seg sitt laveste nivå
noensinne og synes å være nær bunnen.
• Aksjen handles til en rabatt mot skipsverdier som ikke har vært lavere på
15 år.
Salg
Bank Norwegian
• SKAGEN Vekst solgte seg helt ut av sin beholdning i Norwegian
Finance Holding ASA (Bank Norwegian).
• Dette var de siste aksjene fondet hadde igjen etter det gradvis har
redusert beholdningen over de siste par kvartalene.
• Investeringen har vært eksepsjonelt bra og har steget 7,5 ganger
siden den første investeringen ble gjort før finanskrisen.
11
Viktigste endringer 2. kvartal 2015
Økte poster
Reduserte poster
Q2
Q2
Credit Suisse Group AG
(Ny)
Elekta AB
(Ny)
Solar A/S
(Ny)
H Lundbeck A/S
(Ny)
Golden Ocean Group Ltd
(Ny)
Investment AB Kinnevik
Carlsberg A/S
Kia Motors Corporation
Kemira OYJ
Norsk Hydro ASA
AirAsia BHD
Continental AG
Danieli & Officine Meccaniche SpA
Casino Guichard Perrachon SA
Citigroup Inc
Teliasonera AB
Danske Bank A/S
ABB Ltd
YIT Oyj
12
Toshiba Corp
(Ut)
Nokian Renkaat OYJ
(Ut)
Toto Ltd
(Ut)
Novo Nordisk A/S
(Ut)
Norwegian Finance Holding ASA
(Ut)
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
(Ut)
Sparebanken Øst
(Ut)
Agrinos AS
(Ut)
Royal UNIBREW A/S
Koninklijke Philips NV
SAP SE
Korean Reinsurance Co
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
Sberbank of Russia
Sektor og geografisk fordeling mot indeks (%)
Sektorfordeling
Geografisk fordeling
Fond
8
Energi
Råvarer
6
Asia DM
7
6
Asia EM
21
Kapitalvarer,
service og transport
16
13
Inntektsavhengige
forbruksvarer
11
8
4
Medisin
17
Bank og finans
11
11
7
Telekom
Kontanter
13
20
10
1
0
Latin Amerika
0
1
Midtøsten og Afrika
0
1
23
Informasjonsteknologi
Nyttetjenester
13
Europe EM
13
7
Nord Amerika
2
55
50
Norden
1
0
Oceania
Kontanter
Nordiske i SKAGEN Vekst
28
5
0
Indeks
4
Europe DM
ekskl. Norden
10
Defensive
konsumvarer
2
5
0
1
1
0
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
1%
22%
20%
12%
Nyheter og annet om
porteføljeselskaper
- på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015
Samsung Electronics
(7.2%)
Shareholder activism hitting Korean chaebol
Implications for Investment Case: We do not know how this will end (requires 2/3 approval at EGM
on 17 July from shares attending), but this is indeed positive as it is the first recent step to challenge
governance oversteps by the large chaebols which are now restructuring corporate structure (or
spaghetti ownership system) ahead of generational translation. This is a “cheap” way for the Lee family
to gain control of a big position in Samsung Electronics without paying a premium. If this does not work
out, they might have to buy Samsung shares in the market. The move by Elliot, if successful in any
way (i.e. changed terms etc.) would have positive implications. The National Pension Service owns
9.98% of C&T. Their voting would be important and also signal their willingness to protect the
population up against the chaebols.
Summary: Elliot Associates (largest activist fund in the world) last week disclosed ownership of a
7.12% stake in Samsung C&T now worth USD 760m. C&T is in a merger process with Cheil
Industries. Both companies are part of the Samsung chaebol, but the Lee family has a much higher
holding in Cheil, de facto majority. Elliot said the merger term is “neither fair to nor in the best interest
of Samsung C&T shareholders”. The clue to this deal is that C&T owns 18m ord. shares in Samsung
Electronics or 12.2% of ord. shares and 10.6% of capital worth KRW 24tr. NAV of C&T is around KRW
111k while share price pre-Elliot announcement was KRW 63k.
15
Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015
Bonheur/Ganger Rolf
(1.7%)
16
The stock market is not efficient
Investment case update
Our investments in the Fred Olsen twins, BON/GRO, has been very disappointing the last couple of
years. We underestimated the collapsing driller/rig market, which used to be the main asset (Fred Olsen
Energy FOE NO) in the twins. However, the discount to NAV in this holding company has been huge and
should be seen as the main reason why we kept it in the portfolio. Today’s news is sort of a game changer
when it comes to valuation of the companies. They announced sale of 49% of the UK onshore wind farm
portfolio. BON/GRO will receive NOK 3bn in cash, and if we calculate on Bonheur’s hand; BON will receive
NOK 2.2bn or NOK 54 per share vs todays stock price of NOK 58.
Unpopular: yes, it is hated all over the place.
Under analyzed: yes, does not exist a single report from sell side analysts
Undervalued: yes, as all focus has been on the driller assets (FOE NO), rest of assets are totally forgotten
(renewable, shipping/offshore wind and cruise)
Fact
TRIG (The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited) will acquire 49% of Fred Olsen Wind Limited (FOWL).
TRIG will subscribe for GBP 142mill in new shares and also provide FOWL with two loans – totaling GBP
104mill. The total cash consideration is GBP 246mill, implying an EV for FOWL of ca GBP 752mill (NOK
9.3bn) The cash proceeds will be used to repay loans provided by Fred Olsen Renewables (50/50 owned
BON/GRO) and to pay a special dividend to Fred Olsen Renewables. TRIG is buying into a company which
have 433MW installed capacity and EBITDA(2014) of GBP 52 mill. They are paying EV/EBITDA of 14.4 and
EV/EBIT 41. Fred Olsen Renewables will after this transaction be a holder of 51% of FOWL, 100% owner of
remaining UK onshore farm development and the investments in Norway and Sweden. Proceeds will in part
be utilized for projects as renewable energy is a key part of the investment activities in BON/GRO.
Key earnings releases and corporate news, June 2015
Air Asia
(1.1%)
Are they cooking the books?
Investment case update
Air Asia has a net gearing of 2.5, down from 4.2 a few years ago (when they established Air Asia Thailand). The CEO
Tony Fernandes told us they are confident of bringing the ratio down to 2 by year end. He also said they are raising USD
100mill each for the Indonesian and Philippine associates by bringing in new investors via convertible bonds as a lead up
to IPOs in 2017. The company said both these associates will become profitable this year. Air Asia might be in some
kind of trouble, but so far we will stick to this investment. If they have to do full impairment of total receivables (due to
leases not paid from associates) the company will still have a net asset value above todays share price. They own 128
aircrafts, which at a conservative price has a value 1.5x net debt. We have to monitor this investment closely going
forward.
Unpopular: no, 19 out of 26 analysts have a buy rating
Under analyzed: no
Undervalued: yes, as long as they have not overstated income it is. If they have to do full impairment, it is not
Fact
The negative analyst report from GMT sent Air Asia’s share price down the drain. The report accuses Air Asia of milking
transactions with its money-losing associates in the Philippines and Indonesia, such as plane lease and maintenance
deals to boost mother’s operating cash flow. Due to the associates currently are not able to pay their bills to the
mother, Air Asia is extending significant capital to them – essentially gearing up – funding its own profit and operating
cash flow, the report said.
.
17
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst
Samsung Electronics, the Korean electronics group, has enjoyed very solid growth in consumer
electronics, especially smartphones. Pole position in global semiconductor market. Cash
generation is very strong and the company has historically wisely invested in new business areas
– solar power and healthcare are on the roadmap for the future.
Norwegian Air Shuttle is the leading Nordic-based low cost airline, which in 2014 flew 24m
passengers. The fleet of airliners and the route network are growing rapidly proving the concept
of Norwegian local low cost airline, to Nordic, to European and to Global reach.
Continental AG produces tyres for cars and trucks and makes auto technology such as power
trains, safety systems and automated drive systems. The replacement cycle for tyres is
.
becoming
stretched in some markets, so near-term earnings look promising. In the longer-term
Continental’s pole position in global auto technology provides a good backdrop for substantial
growth.
Norsk Hydro ASA is a Norwegian aluminium and renewable energy company headquartered in
Oslo. Norsk Hydro is one of the largest aluminium companies worldwide. It has operations in
some 50 countries around the world and is active on all continents. The Norwegian state holds a
34.3% ownership interest in the company, which employs approximately 13,000 people.
Citigroup Inc. or Citi is an American multinational banking and financial services corporation
headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Citigroup was formed from one of the world's largest
mergers in history by combining the banking giant Citicorp and financial conglomerate Travelers
Group in October 1998.
18
The largest companies in SKAGEN Vekst continued
Swedish/Finnish incumbent telecom operator offering services primarily in the Nordic region.
History goes back to 1853 as the Royal Swedish Electrical Telegraph. The company is Europe’s
fifth largest telecom operator and offers services across Eurasia, including stakes in mobile
phone operators in Turkey and Russia.
Danske Bank is the second largest bank in the Nordic region and is also active in Ireland. After
an unsustainable acquisition binge and loan growth before 2008, the bank has struggled with
high loan losses and a sub-optimal cost structure. In 2012 a new management group began to
clean up and prepare customers and the organisation for an automated banking future.
Carlsberg A/S is an international brewing company. The Company produces branded beers
and regional brands. Carlsberg makes most of its beer outside of Denmark and it is sold in
markets around the world. The Company also markets and produces soft drinks, water and
wine.
ABB is a multinational corporation headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, operating mainly in
robotics and the power and automation technology areas. ABB is one of the largest engineering
companies as well as one of the largest conglomerates in the world. ABB has operations in
around 100 countries, with approximately 150,000 employees.
Kia Motors Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and
commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric
and fuel cell technology.
19
For mer informasjon, vennligst se:
Siste Markedsrapport
Informasjon om SKAGEN Vekst på våre nettsider
Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av
markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved kjøp og forvaltning. Avkastningen kan
bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for
eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og dette
synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller salg av
finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som skyldes bruk
eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av selskaper som er
omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.