Cadila Healthcare Institutional Equity Research Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Cadila Healthcare BUY Robust 4Q; US drives growth CMP* (Rs) 1,689 Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) reported an upbeat 4QFY15 at the operating level. Sales (up 17% yoy), margins at 21.8% (up 520bps) and APAT (46% yoy) were led by US. US and India (comprise 70% of sales) sustained healthy growth while Europe and Latam suffered from channel rationalization. The company seems to be in gestation period in the ROW markets. We believe the growth story in US will unfold over the next 3 years attaining sales of US$800mn with Cadila awaiting 161 approvals (260 filed, 99 approved). In the past, Cadila had expanded rapidly across geographies and technology platforms with significant investments in transdermals, nasals and vaccines, which will start yielding results from FY16E onwards followed by biologics and respiratory. In our view, the monetization of the US filing efforts can deliver significant upside to the current earnings expectations. Maintain BUY with a Target Price of Rs2,025. Target Price (Rs) 2,025 4QFY15 Result snapshot Others Top-line grew by 17.3% yoy, in-line with our estimate, led by the US (up 44.3% yoy). While India (up by 8.8% yoy) continues to post subpar growth, ROW (up 8% yoy) and JVs (up 5.2% yoy) were below estimates. Latam (down 8.4% yoy) and Europe (down 12.4% yoy) continue to remain weak impacted by channel rationalization. 500bps yoy increase in gross margins (at 65.1% yoy) led the operating margins improvement of 520bps at 21.8% on a yoy basis. The strong operating performance was led by ramp up in new launches and ramp up in market share from HCQS in the US. Upside/ (Downside) (%) 20 Bloomberg Ticker CDH:IN Market Cap. (Rs mn) 345,837 Free Float (%) 25 Shares O/S (mn) 205 Shareholding Pattern (%) Dec’14 Mar’15 74.8 74.8 6.7 6.4 Promoter FII DII (Rs mn) 8.0 8.3 10.6 10.5 FY15 FY16E FY17E Sales 84,971 102,711 119,831 EBITDA 16,299 20,450 25,289 APAT 11,939 14,362 17,704 EPS (Rs) 58.3 70.1 86.5 DPS (Rs) 12.0 12.0 12.0 FY15 FY16E FY17E P/E (x) 29.0 24.1 19.5 P/B (x) 8.1 6.4 5.0 EV/EBITDA 22.2 17.6 13.8 RoE (%) 28.1 26.7 25.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 Key concall takeaways Outlook and Valuation 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 CNX Pharma May-15 Apr-15 Mar-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 Dec-14 Oct-14 Cadila Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 80 Aug-14 (1) Timely approvals for Asacol HD, Abilify, Lailda and Prevacid ODT are critical, (2) Launch of Controlled Substances from Nesher (consent decree expected to be resolved by FY16E), transdermals (expect 2 launches in 2HFY16E) and vaccines (intend to make Lipaglyn a mega brand; expect few launches by FY17E in India), (3) Clean chit for Moraiya and Ahmedabad (under 483) and (4) Respiratory filings to begin by FY17E. 1 Year Relative Price Performance Jun-14 Key factors to watch for Divi. Yield (%) May-14 (1) Guidance reiterated: Sales of Rs100bn with EBITDA margins at 21% led by US, double-digit growth in India for FY16E. US-guided for 40 filings-50% in complex space, most filings from Baddi, Moraiya and SEZ, (2) Has witnessed fast pace approach from USFDA in terms of CRLs and TADs, but conversion to final approvals remain sticky, (3) Cadila continues to apprise USFDA of its progress in Moraiya and awaits re-inspection, (4) Net debt stands at Rs2bn, D/E at 0.5x for FY15, (5) Tax rate is guided at 17%, capex at Rs5.5bn and R&D at 6-7% for FY16E and (6) No plans to raise funds in the near future. Nifty Note:* CMP as on May 15, 2015 Led by complex US launches (28% CAGR over FY15-17E), end of consent decree in Nesher Pharma by FY16E and double-digit growth in India formulations, we forecast Cadila to report 19%/22% CAGR for sales and APAT, respectively over FY15-17E with steady improvement in base margins at ~20%. We remain excited by the portfolio mix and maintain BUY with a Target Price of Rs2,025. May 15, 2015 Research Analyst: Sapna Jhawar Contact: 022-3320 1641 Email: [email protected] P a g e |1 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Risks to the view Lower-than-expected product mix and slower than anticipated launches in the US could pull down the margins posing a risk to our estimates. Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Rs mn) Net Sales Material cost % of net sales Staff costs % of net sales Other expenses % of net sales Total operating exp. Operating profit OPM (%) Interest Depreciation EBIT Other Income PBT Total tax Tax Rate (%) Minority Interest Adjusted PAT Net profit margin (%) Extra-ordinary Items Forex (loss)/gain Others Reported Net profit Reported EPS (Rs) 4QFY15 22,471.2 7,831.3 34.9 3,140.8 14.0 6,593.5 29.3 17,565.6 4,905.6 21.8 120.8 755.4 4,029.4 614.5 4,643.9 707.5 15.2 68.3 3,868.1 17.2 (364.3) (400.0) 35.7 3,503.8 17.1 4QFY14 19,163.3 7,644.3 39.9 2,735.7 14.3 5,587.5 29.2 15,967.5 3,195.8 16.7 271.4 527.8 2,396.6 677.0 3,073.6 347.6 11.3 72.3 2,653.7 13.8 (261.8) (125.0) (136.8) 2,391.9 11.7 % yoy 17.3 2.4 14.8 18.0 10.0 53.5 (55.5) 43.1 68.1 (9.2) 51.1 103.5 (5.5) 45.8 39.2 46.5 3QFY15 21,595.4 7,638.2 35.4 3,170.4 14.7 6,644.9 30.8 17,453.5 4,141.9 19.2 137.4 707.2 3,297.3 396.3 3,693.6 791.0 21.4 138.6 2,764.0 12.8 49.1 3.0 46.1 2,813.1 13.7 % qoq 4.1 2.5 (0.9) (0.8) 0.6 18.4 (12.1) 6.8 22.2 55.1 25.7 (10.6) (50.7) 39.9 24.6 FY15 84,971.2 31,866.5 37.5 12,085.2 14.2 24,720.6 29.1 68,672.3 16,298.9 19.2 612.6 2,872.5 12,813.8 2,095.9 14,909.7 2,594.2 17.4 376.6 11,938.9 14.1 (433.0) (328.6) (104.4) 11,505.9 56.2 FY14 71,149.6 27,065.0 38.0 10,711.0 15.1 22,392.0 31.5 60,168.0 10,981.6 15.4 1,181.0 2,012.3 7,788.3 1,941.0 9,729.3 1,060.0 10.9 326.4 8,342.9 11.7 (306.5) (135.0) (171.5) 8,036.4 39.2 % yoy 19.4 17.7 12.8 10.4 14.1 48.4 (48.1) 42.7 64.5 8.0 53.2 144.7 15.4 43.1 41.3 43.2 Source: Company, RSec Research Key Highlights Margin improvement-positive: Operating margins expanded by 520bp yoy and 270bp qoq at 21.8% led by stellar performance from the US on the back of new launches and ramp up in market share gains for HCQS. Sustained margin performance in the past 5 quarters is driven by new launches in the US, better rupee realization and recovery in India formulations. The management has guided for 1% improvement in margins over the next 3 years subject to approvals from USFDA. Given the management’s guidance for continuous presence of sizeable AG sales, we expect margins to improve by 100bp on an annual basis from FY16E onwards. Further, the management expects to regain its historical margin levels of 20-22% over the next 2-3 years as business improves. May 15, 2015 P a g e |2 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Exhibit 2: Price hikes in key products leads to margin growth 23 170 22 21 140 19 (US$ mn) (%) 20 110 18 17 80 16 15 50 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 USA 3QFY15 4QFY15 Consolidated OPM (%) Source: Company, RSec Research R&D to remain high at 6-7% of sales: In 4Q and FY15, Cadila reported R&D at 6.6% of sales, in-line with its guidance of 6-7% for the year. The expense largely comprise of new filings and clinical trials for biosimilar pipeline. Cadila has one of the largest biosimilar dedicated facilities in India and one of largest portfolio with 25 products. It is ahead of its peers (except Dr. Reddy’s) in development of NBE/MBEs. This is a long term growth driver, which could play out over the next few years. Innovative projects undertaken in India like Lipaglyn (NCE) exemplify the company’s R&D capabilities. Geographical expansion of such projects can lead to a re-rating of the entire business. In the past three years, R&D spend has increased almost 2x and has increased from 4.9% of sales in FY10 to 7.2% in FY13 and 6.6% in FY15. ~70-75% of the R&D spend is on generics and the remaining 35% for innovation research, vaccine and biologics development. We pencil in R&D expense to remain high at 7%+ over the next few years. Cadila currently has 17 biosimilars and 3 novel products, 6 products in NCE pipeline (indications like oncology, RA, Gynecology and Nephrology) and 14 NME molecules under its active pipeline at various phases. Although, NME pipeline is in initial stages (mostly Phase-I and II trials), Cadila has had some success through 6 biosimilar launches in India (complex proteins), which when replicated in the EM could lead to peak potential sales of ~US$500mn. Exhibit 3: R&D investments on a rise as share of complex and innovative filings increase 60 8 50 7 6 30 (%) 40 5 20 4 10 US ANDA Filings US ANDA approvals FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 3 FY10 0 R&D expense (% of sales) Source: Company, RSec Research May 15, 2015 P a g e |3 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Domestic formulations: The domestic formulations business recorded ~9% growth yoy for 4Q and FY15 each, marginally lower than our estimate. The underlying growth was 12% for the quarter (adjusted for NLEM impact and discontinuation of 2 in-licensed products from BI). The company has launched 55 new products in India in FY15 including line extensions and 19 first time launches (includes Exemptia). The management reiterates its guidance of launching ~20 products per quarter in the domestic market. Improving productivity and maintaining pace of new launches remain crucial for the company. Domestic formulations have remained muted in single-digit for the past 7-8 quarters impacted by new pricing policy and discontinuation of 2 in-licensed products. However, the gap is narrowing since the company has launched its own brands replacing the in-licensed products. Management has guided for doubledigit growth from FY16E onwards with ~5,000MRs. We forecast ~15% CAGR over FY15-17E for Indian formulations. Exhibit 4: India remains constant in past 7 quarters, expect rebound in FY16E 7,500 11 6,000 (%) (Rs mn) 9 4,500 7 3,000 1,500 5 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 Domestic Formulations 3QFY15 4QFY15 % Ch. YoY Source: Company, RSec Research US generic business: Cadila’s US subsidiary posted 44.3% yoy growth (37% yoy growth in US$ terms) during the quarter and 56.3% yoy growth in FY15. The growth was led by a ramp up in market share of key products including HCQS. Average market share in HCQS pepped up to 38% from 16% on a sequential basis. Cadila gained from shortage in HCQS post exit of Ipca/ Ranbaxy in June 2014 and remains confident of maintaning its market share and pricing in the product. The management has received 2 Complete Response Letters (CRL) from the USFDA and has guided to launch 2 products in the Transdermal category in 2HFY16E, which, we believe, is highly positive. FY16E should see launch of Transdermals, Nasals, Asacol HD, Namenda and Abilify thereby improving growth visibility for the next 2 years. It remains confident of monetizing Lialda in CY15. The management guided for 20% growth in the US subject to approvals. We are excited by the portfolio mix shift towards complex generics for Cadila. The portfolio mix has shifted towards low competition products with expected launch of nasal sprays, controlled substances (Nesher portfolio; as consent decree is expected to be resolved by FY16E), transdermals (expect 2 launches in May 15, 2015 P a g e |4 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update 2HFY16E) and vaccines (intend to make Lipaglyn a mega brand). Beyond these, there are relatively low competition opportunities for Cadila over the next two years. These opportunities, if realized, would ensure a healthy double-digit growth in the US on a low base. Our US sales expects upside from 2 transdermal patch launches and 1 nasal spray launch in FY16E. However, the portfolio has the potential to ramp up to US$150mn by FY18E, in our view. Launches from injectables and controlled substances will add strength to base business. We estimate the US business to grow at 28% CAGR over FY15-17E as growth bunches up in FY16/17E. ANDA filings: The company has filed 38 ANDAs in FY15 (40 guided in FY16E50% in complex space) and believes that if the filing rate is sustainable then 1015 approvals annually are possible. With 8 launches in FY15, we expect bunched up approvals and launches (~20) in FY16E. During the quarter, the company filed 6 ANDAs and launched 3 products. It currently has 260 filings, 99 approved and 161 ANDAs pending for approval, which includes 5 in nasal spray and 3 in the transdermal category. The management indicated that they received complete response letters for its key complex filings and is confident of monetizing these opportunities, although the timeline is uncertain at the moment. Given the healthy pipeline and focus on limited-competition opportunities, we remain positively biased on the monetization of the same. Exhibit 5: US continues healthy show through products in base portfolio 170 90 150 1100 55 900 45 700 35 500 25 300 15 70 50 (US$mn) 110 (%) (US$mn) 130 90 30 70 50 10 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 USA 3QFY15 % Ch. YoY 4QFY15 100 5 FY13 FY14AR USA FY15 FY16E FY17E % yoy change Source: Company, RSec Research May 15, 2015 P a g e |5 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update JVs: The JVs collectively posted growth of ~5% yoy in 4Q and FY15 each, despite a lower base. The management has guided for sustainable growth going ahead. However, we remain skeptical of the potential scale-up due to lack of meaningful pipeline launches from Hospira. Exhibit 6: Segment-wise sales performance (Rs mn) Domestic Formulations APIs 4QFY15 4QFY14 % yoy 3QFY15 % qoq FY15 FY14 % yoy 8,940 8,136 9.9 8,463 5.6 35,347 32,445 8.9 6,797 6,247 8.8 6,418 5.9 26,772 24,644 8.6 206 209 (1.4) 225 (8.4) 928 640 45.0 1,937 1,680 15.3 1,820 6.4 7,647 7,161 6.8 15,195 12,494 21.6 14,733 3.1 51,230 39,638 29.2 13,362 10,652 25.4 12,782 4.5 43,731 32,282 35.5 JVs 1,169 1,111 5.2 1,217 (3.9) 4,704 4,499 4.6 APIs 664 731 (9.2) 734 (9.5) 2,795 2,857 (2.2) 24,135 20,630 17.0 23,196 4.0 86,577 72,083 20.1 Cons& others Exports Formulations Total Gross Sales Source: Company, RSec Research Other markets: Emerging markets seems to be in a gestation period posting 8% yoy growth in 4Q and 11% in FY15 on the back of low base and high sales from South Africa. The company has made total 54 launches in emerging markets till date. Europe continue to struggle with 12.4% de-growth yoy (down 12.6% qoq) as there have been no improvement in pricing environment. Besides, channel rationalization in Europe and lack of new approvals in Brazil contributed to dismal performance. Cadila filed 10 dossiers in Brazil (cumulative 125 dossier filings), launched 3 products (cumulative 15 launches) and launched 7 products in Mexico (cumulative 15 launches) in FY15. Increasing launches from France (launched 5 products), Spain (launched 12 products), Sudan and Philippines will continue to provide an upside to this geography. Other Highlights Bremer Pharma successfully completed the regulatory audit JV’s also cleared ISO-OSO inspection Ahmedabad 483: No update from the USFDA. Cadila has not done any derisking strategy for the filings given that it has only single digit DMFs filed from the facility. May 15, 2015 P a g e |6 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) Net Sales FY14 71,150 FY15 84,971 FY16E 102,711 FY17E 119,831 Total Expenditure 60,168 68,672 82,261 94,541 Cost of Materials 27,065 31,867 38,003 43,738 Personnel 10,711 12,085 13,958 16,052 Others 22,392 24,721 30,300 34,751 EBITDA 10,982 16,299 20,450 25,289 % chg 10.9 48.4 25.5 23.7 (% of Net Sales) 15.4 19.2 19.9 21.1 Depreciation& Amortization 2,012 2,873 3,416 3,933 EBIT 8,969 13,426 17,034 21,356 % chg 11.1 49.7 26.9 25.4 (% of Net Sales) 12.6 15.8 16.6 17.8 Interest & other Charges 1,181 613 744 804 Other Income 1,941 2,096 1,776 1,724 (% of PBT) Recurring PBT 20.0 14.1 9.8 7.7 9,729 14,910 18,066 22,266 11.3 53.2 21.2 23.2 PBT (reported) 9,729 14,910 18,066 22,256 Tax % chg 1,060 2,594 3,252 4,010 (% of PBT) 10.9 17.4 18.0 18.0 Minority Interest 326 377 452 542 8,343 11,939 14,362 17,704 % chg 16.1 43.1 20.3 23.3 Less: Extraordinary item(EI) 307 433 - - Adjusted PAT 8,036 11,506 14,362 17,704 % chg 23.0 43.2 24.8 23.3 (% of Net Sales) 11.3 13.5 14.0 14.8 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 40.7 58.3 70.1 86.5 % chg 16.1 43.1 20.3 23.3 FY14 FY15 FY16E Reported PAT Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY17E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 1,024 1,024 1,024 1,024 Reserves& Surplus 33,366 41,492 52,833 67,536 Shareholders’ Funds 34,390 42,515 53,857 68,560 1,443 1,689 2,141 2,683 Total Loans 22,646 23,340 22,540 21,740 Total Liabilities 58,479 67,544 78,537 92,982 Gross Block 39,290 42,445 47,445 52,445 Less: Acc. Depreciation 15,402 18,275 21,691 25,624 Net Block 23,888 24,170 25,754 26,821 Capital Work-in-Progress 8,915 10,000 12,000 12,000 Goodwill on consolidation 7,350 7,331 7,331 7,331 866 1,544 1,544 1,544 38,846 47,426 57,732 73,654 Cash 5,488 6,699 8,986 17,886 Loans & Advances 7,660 8,780 10,613 12,381 Current liabilities 20,425 22,342 25,238 27,782 Net Current Assets 18,421 25,085 32,494 45,872 (961) (586) (586) (586) 58,479 67,544 78,537 92,982 Minority Interest Investments Current Assets Net Deferred Tax Total Assets May 15, 2015 P a g e |7 Institutional Equity Research Cadila Healthcare Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) Profit before tax FY14 9,729 FY15 14,910 FY16E 18,066 FY17E 22,276 Depreciation 2,012 2,873 3,416 3,933 Interest Provided 1,181 613 744 804 964 (5,432) (5,122) (4,479) (1,060) (2,594) (3,252) (4,010) (118) (1,301) - - Cash Flow from Operations 12,708 9,069 13,852 18,525 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (5,000) Change in Working Capital Tax Paid Others (5,705) (4,240) (7,000) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 279 (678) - - Cash Flow from Investing (5,426) (4,918) (7,000) (5,000) - (0) - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans (4,185) 694 (800) (800) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2,266) (3,021) (3,021) (3,021) Interest Provided (1,181) (613) (744) (804) Cash Flow from Financing (7,632) (2,940) (4,565) (4,625) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (350) 1,211 2,287 8,900 Opening Cash balances 5,838 5,488 6,699 8,986 Closing Cash balances 5,488 6,699 8,986 17,886 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E P/E (on FDEPS) 41.5 29.0 24.1 19.5 P/CEPS 33.4 23.3 19.5 16.0 P/BV 10.1 8.1 6.4 5.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 EV/Sales 5.1 4.3 3.5 2.9 33.1 22.2 17.6 13.8 6.1 5.3 4.5 3.7 EPS (Basic) 40.7 58.3 70.1 86.6 EPS (fully diluted) 40.7 58.3 70.1 86.6 Cash EPS 50.6 72.3 86.8 105.8 Issue of Equity Key Ratios Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (Rs) 9.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 167.9 207.7 263.0 334.9 RoCE 18.4 22.8 23.8 24.7 RoIC 14.0 17.5 18.2 18.9 RoE 24.3 28.1 26.7 25.9 Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Inventory / Sales (days) 70 66 67 65 Receivables (days) 58 68 66 65 102 94 91 89 66 79 84 85 DPS Book Value Returns (%) Turnover ratios (x) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (days) May 15, 2015 P a g e |8 Cadila Healthcare Institutional Equity Research Pharmaceuticals | India 4QFY15 Result Update General Disclaimers: This Research Report (hereinafter called ‘Report’) is prepared and distributed by Reliance Securities Limited (RSL) for information purposes only. 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