Sunny Kwok 郭日升 公司报告:康师傅 (00322 HK) +852 2509 2642 [email protected] 24 March 2015 Downgrade to “Neutral” on Weak Sales Growth Momentum 收入增长动能趋缓,下调至“中性” Tingyi’s 2014 results missed consensus due to sales deterioration in 4Q14. Consolidated revenue decreased by 16.4% YoY in 4Q14 to US$1,780 mn (Noodles: US$972 mn, down 18.1% YoY; Beverages: US$739 mn, down 13.8% YoY). Instant noodle business earnings in 4Q14 went up by 8.2% YoY to US$80 mn on cost cut, while net loss from beverage business widened to US$59 mn in 4Q14 from US$49 mn in 4Q13 on low utilisation rate. Consolidated net profit in 4Q14 was US$9 mn, down 65.7% YoY. For 2014, both revenue and net profit decreased by 6.4% and 2.0% YoY to US$10,238 mn and US$400 mn, respectively. The management does not expect sales growth to speed up significantly in 2015. Moreover, only partial benefits from gross margin improvement will go to the bottom line in 2015. Owing to conservative sales growth expectation for both instant noodle and beverage business, we cut Tingyi’s EPS forecast in 2015-2016 by 11.1% and 10.4%, respectively. We expect Tingyi’s EPS to grow by 19.6%, 12.7% and 9.8%, to US$0.086, US$0.096 and US$0.106 in 2015-2017, respectively. GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Company Report: Tingyi (00322 HK) Neutral Rating: Downgraded 评级: 中性 (下调) 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$17.00 Revised from 原目标价: HK$20.70 Share price 股价: HK$17.740 Stock performance 股价表现 20.0 % of return 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Tingyi’s sales and earnings growth are expected to remain very weak in 1H15. Valuation is demanding on slowing growth momentum. As such, we downgrade the Company’s investment rating to “Neutral” and cut its TP to HK$17.00, which represents 25.6x 2015 PER, 22.8x 2016 PER and 20.7x 2017 PER. (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0) (25.0) Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 受 2014 年第 4 季收入倒退的负面影响, 收入倒退的负面影响,康师傅 2014 年业绩差于市场预期。 年业绩差于市场预期。2014 年第 4 Dec-14 HSI Mar-15 TINGYI 季公司综合收入同比下降 16.4%,至 17.8 亿美元,其中方便面收入达到 9.7 亿美元,按年 4 季方便面利润按年增长 8.2%,至 80 百万美元,但饮料分部产能利用率过低,分部亏损 Change in Share Price 股价变动 从 2013 年第 4 季的 49 百万美元扩大至 2014 年第 4 季的 59 百万美元。2014 年第 4 季综 合净利为 9 百万美元,同比大幅倒退 65.7%。2014 年康师傅收入及净利分别同比轻微下跌 Abs. % 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 6.4%及 2.0%,至 102.4 亿及 4.0 亿美元。 康师傅管理层并不预期 2015 年收入增速将强劲反弹。另一方面,毛利率改善所带来的好 处预期仅会部分在净利中反映。由于比较保守的 由于比较保守的方便面及饮料分部 由于比较保守的方便面及饮料分部收入增 方便面及饮料分部收入增速预测 收入增速预测, 速预测,我们分 1M 1 个月 3M 3 个月 1Y 1年 (7.4) 2.1 (12.8) (6.0) (2.9) (24.9) 18.8 18.4 20.2 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan Int ernat ional. 别下调康师傅 2015-2016 年每股净利 11.1%及 及 10.4%。 。我们预期康师傅于 2015-2017 年 Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) 倒退 18.1%,而饮料收入则同比减少 13.8%,至 7.4 亿美元。受惠于成本控制,2014 年第 每股净利分别为 0.086、0.096 及 0.106 美元,按年分别增长 19.6%、12.7%及 9.8%。 康师傅收入及净利增长于 2015 年上半年预期将维持疲弱。由于增长动能在放缓,估值不 吸引。因此 因此, 因此,我们下调 我们下调康师傅 下调康师傅的投资评级至 康师傅的投资评级至“ 的投资评级至“中性” 中性”,同时将目标价下调至 同时将目标价下调至 17.00 港元, 港元, Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) (△%) (x) (US$) (x) (US$) (%) (%) 10,941 409 0.073 (11.0) 31.3 0.515 4.4 0.037 1.6 15.1 FY14A 10,238 400 0.072 (2.1) 32.0 0.541 4.2 0.036 1.6 13.5 FY15F 10,591 479 0.086 19.6 26.8 0.591 3.9 0.043 1.9 15.1 FY16F 11,613 540 0.096 12.7 23.7 0.647 3.5 0.048 2.1 15.6 FY17F 12,628 593 0.106 9.8 21.6 0.705 3.2 0.053 2.3 15.6 年结 12/31 FY13A Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 5,604.1 99,416.4 5,628.3 23.200 / 16.240 Major shareholder 大股东 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) FY15 Net gearing (%) 15 年净负债/股东资金 (%) FY14-17 PEG (x) 市盈率/增长率 (倍) Wei Ing-Chou 33.6% 33.3 42.9 2.3 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 12 Company Report 相当于公司 25.6 倍 2015 年市盈率、 年市盈率、22.8 倍 2016 年市盈率及 20.7 倍 2017 年市盈率。 年市盈率。 Key Takeaways from Analyst Meeting: very experienced in the FMCG market in China, weak consumption demand for convenient food harms the Company’s sales growth. In addition, sales growth of instant noodle business had kept slowing since 2011 and instant food business’s performance was unsatisfactory comparing to instant noodle and beverage businesses. We are slightly worry that in addition to weak macro economy, the change in key personnel of the Company could further add uncertainties to the Company’s 24 March 2015 New Group’s CEO and CFO. James Wei and Mr. Liu Kuo Wei are promoted as Tingyi’s new CEO and CFO. Though they are operation, at least in the short run. Cost Saving, Efficiency Enhancing, Innovation. The overall operation strategy of Tingyi in 2015 will be cost saving, efficiency enhancing and innovation. If these 3 themes are not only ranked by alphabetical order but also by their importance, we are slightly disappointed that innovation comes last. Although we understand that Tingyi is reluctant to introduce new products to the market under such gloomy environment as the Company hopes to maximize returns from new star products, we still hope that Tingyi should catch up with UPC by launching more new self-developed products in 2015. On the other hand, we do admit that Tingyi is able to deliver extra earnings growth from cost saving and efficiency enhancing, which the Company is really good at. Profitability Sharing with Distributors in 2015. With highly possible gross margin improvement in 2015, Tingyi admits that the cost savings will go to: 1) Bottom line; 2) Support distributors with higher profit sharing and cash flow improvement, especially for instant noodles and water; and 3) Product enhancement such as increased volume for water and better ingredients for instant noodles. Though Tingyi is doing the right thing, we could not expect inspiring earnings growth to be seen in 2015 if sales growth is expected to be low single digit. Successful Integration with Pepsi. Tingyi’s management is satisfied with the progress of integration of Pepsi business to the Company. Despite incurring US$73 million termination benefits for workers in Pepsi in 2014 and a possible further US$70 million to be incurred in 2015-2016, Tingyi reiterates that the Company will gain in the long run and some synergies such as Cash is King – Less CAPEX in 2015. Tingyi incurred capital expenditure of US$1,480 million in 2014, of which US$535 million was related to the construction of Shanghai operation center, which has commenced operation in Jan. 2015. As macro economy in China is expected to stay weak in 2015, the Company is expected to keep more cash and thus, CAPEX in 2015 is expected to reduce to US$600-700 million. Strong Business Partners. In addition to Pepsi, Calbee and Wakado, Tingyi teams up with Disney and Starbucks to further enrich its product portfolio and to promote its brand name to not only domestic consumers but also international markets. We Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) raw materials sourcing and modern channels negotiation have been realized. believe James Wei, the new CEO of Tingyi, will continue to look for opportunities to cooperate with international F&B peers in Company Report order to help sales growth to speed up. However, we do not expect major M&As to be seen in the near future. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 12 2014 Annual Results Review: US$1.8 billion, which was attributable to tainted lard scandal of Wei Chuan in Taiwan, weak consumer sentiment, continuous inventory destocking at distribution channels as well as slight shift of the Spring Festival in 2015. Weak raw materials did not help gross margin due to low utilisation rates of both noodles’ and beverages’ plants and thus, consolidated gross margin in 4Q14 dropped by 1.7 ppt YoY to 25.9%. In view of weak sales, the Company’s operating expenses were well under control. As 24 March 2015 Poor Results Due to Weak Sales but Partially Offset by Stringent Cost Control. Revenue in 4Q14 fell by 16.4% YoY to such, net profit in 4Q14 arrived at US$9 million, down 65.7% YoY. For 2014, revenue and net profit were US$10,238 million and US$400 million, down 6.4% and 2.0% YoY, respectively. Excluding structural consolidation cost of US$73 million in 2014 and impairment loss of US$43 million in 2013, core net profit in 2014 increased by 0.4% YoY, to US$435 million. Table-1: 2014 Annual Results Review 2013 2014 YoY 1Q-3Q13 1Q-3Q14 YoY 4Q13 4Q14 YoY Turnover & revenue 10,941 10,238 -6.4% 8,813 8,458 -4.0% 2,128 1,780 -16.4% Cost of sales (7,631) (7,120) -6.7% (6,088) (5,801) -4.7% (1,543) (1,319) -14.5% 3,310 3,118 -5.8% 2,724 2,658 -2.4% 586 460 -21.4% Other net income 164 155 -5.9% 121 102 -15.6% 43 52 21.4% Distribution costs Gross Profit (2,313) (2,139) -7.5% (1,823) (1,704) -6.6% (490) (435) -11.1% Administrative exp. (351) (300) -14.6% (267) (237) -11.3% (83) (62) -25.3% Other exp. (118) (156) 32.2% (56) (105) 88.5% (62) (50) -18.7% 693 679 -2.0% 699 714 2.1% (6) (35) 484.2% 14 8 -45.6% 10 19 90.1% 4 (11) n.a. EBIT Finance income, net Share of associates Profit before tax Taxation 16 7 -54.7% 15 14 -5.2% 1 (7) n.a. 723 694 -4.1% 724 747 3.2% (1) (53) 6955.3% (229) (209) -8.7% (201) (204) 1.8% (28) (5) -83.7% Profit after tax 494 485 -1.9% 523 543 3.7% (29) (58) 100.1% Minority interests (86) (84) -1.7% (141) (151) 7.3% 55 67 21.6% Reported Net Profit 409 400 -2.0% 383 392 2.4% 26 9 -65.7% Core Net Profit * 433 435 0.4% 383 392 2.4% 51 44 -14.0% Gross Margin 30.3% 30.5% 0.2 ppt 30.9% 31.4% 0.5 ppt 27.5% 25.9% -1.7 ppt EBIT Margin 6.3% 6.6% 0.3 ppt 7.9% 8.4% 0.5 ppt -0.3% -2.0% -1.7 ppt Reported Net Margin 3.7% 3.9% 0.2 ppt 4.3% 4.6% 0.3 ppt 1.2% 0.5% -0.7 ppt Core Net Margin 4.0% 4.3% 0.3 ppt 4.3% 4.6% 0.3 ppt 2.4% 2.5% 0.1 ppt Source: the Company. * Excludes structural consolidation cost of US$73 million in 2014 and impairment loss of US$43 million in 2013 (before adjustment of equity interest). Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) Income Statement US$ million Instant Noodle Business: Tainted Oil Scandal and Advance Purchases. According to Nielsen, sales volume of instant noodle declined by 7% and sales value also fell by 2.7% in 2014. Revenue from instant noodle business of Tingyi slightly outperformed the market but the Company’s instant noodle sales were extremely weak in 4Q14. The management attributes such performance to be partially related to tainted lard scandal of Wei Chuan, which also negatively impacted Tingyi’s sales in 4Q14 of approximately 10%. In addition, Tingyi raised bowl noodle’s ASP in 3Q14, which also affected bowl noodles sales in 4Q14 due to advance purchases by some distributors in 3Q14. Table-2: Instant Noodle Business Revenue Breakdown (Include Inter-Segment) – By Product Instant Noodle Business Revenue Breakdown US$ million 2013 2014 YoY 1Q-3Q13 1Q-3Q14 YoY 4Q13 4Q14 YoY Bowl 2,066 1,960 -5.1% 1,513 1,511 -0.1% 553 449 -18.9% High end Packet 1,693 1,601 -5.4% 1,226 1,211 -1.2% 468 390 -16.6% Mid end Packet 469 470 0.0% 333 356 6.9% 137 114 -16.8% Others 104 107 3.7% 74 88 18.1% 29 19 -33.6% 4,332 4,138 -4.5% 3,146 3,166 0.6% 1,186 972 -18.1% Total Source: the Company. See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 12 Company Report Segment Revenue Beverage Business: Losing Market Share. According to Nielsen, sales volume of beverage increased by only 2.8% but sales value went up by 6.6% in 2014. China’s soft drink market was very weak in 2H14 on weak consumer sentiment and drink, which had the highest growth among other beverages. In addition, the Company lost market share in water and juice. Table-3: Beverage Business Revenue Breakdown (Include Inter-Segment) – By Product Beverage Business Revenue Breakdown US$ million 2013 2014 YoY 1Q-3Q13 1Q-3Q14 YoY 4Q13 4Q14 Tea 2,292 Water 1,141 2,330 1.7% 1,134 -0.6% 1,978 2,011 1.7% 314 319 1.7% 981 1,000 2.0% 160 134 -16.5% Juice 1,340 964 -28.1% 1,175 867 -26.2% 165 97 -41.4% Carbonated & Others 1,495 Total 6,268 1,373 -8.2% 1,276 1,183 -7.3% 219 189 -13.3% 5,801 -7.5% 5,409 5,061 -6.4% 858 739 -13.8% 24 March 2015 unfavourable weather. Tingyi’s beverage business was weaker than the market as the Company does not produce functional YoY Segment Revenue Source: the Company. Profitability Improvement on Stringent Cost Control. Despite weak sales growth, the Company still reported earnings growth in both instant noodle and beverage businesses in 2014, thanks to gross margin improvement of beverage business and stringent cost control of both businesses. However, the gross margin improvement in 2014 was weaker than what we had expected due to low utilisation rate (~40%-50% based on 24 hours). Table-4: Segment Results Breakdown – By Business Segment Results US$ million 2013 2014 YoY 1Q-3Q13 1Q-3Q14 YoY 4Q13 4Q14 YoY Instant Noodles 4,332 4,138 -4.5% 3,146 3,166 0.6% 1,186 972 -18.1% Beverages 6,268 5,800 -7.5% 5,409 5,061 -6.4% 858 739 -13.8% 341 300 -12.1% 257 232 -10.1% 84 68 -18.4% 10,941 10,238 -6.4% 8,813 8,458 -4.0% 2,128 1,780 -16.4% Instant Noodles 1,267 1,172 -7.5% 925 892 -3.5% 342 280 -18.2% Beverages 1,927 1,851 -3.9% 1,717 1,692 -1.5% 210 159 -24.2% 116 94 -18.7% 82 73 -11.2% 34 21 -37.0% 3,310 3,118 -5.8% 2,724 2,658 -2.4% 586 460 -21.4% Instant Noodles 437 425 -2.8% 332 342 2.9% 105 83 -21.1% Beverages 239 258 8.3% 359 387 7.9% (121) (129) 7.0% Segment Revenue Instant Food & Others Total Instant Food & Others Total EBIT * Instant Food & Others Total 33 3 -91.5% 22 (1) n.a. 11 4 -60.7% 709 686 -3.2% 714 728 2.0% (5) (42) 737.4% 337 360 7.0% 263 280 6.7% 74 80 8.2% 71 72 1.4% 120 131 8.4% (49) (59) 18.6% Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) Gross Profit Net Profit Instant Noodles Beverages Instant Food & Others 1 (32) n.a. (1) (19) 2569.7% 1 (13) n.a. 409 400 -2.0% 383 392 2.4% 26 9 -65.7% Instant Noodles 29.2% 28.3% -0.9 ppt 29.4% 28.2% -1.2 ppt 28.8% 28.8% SAME Beverages 30.8% 31.9% 1.2 ppt 31.7% 33.4% 1.7 ppt 24.5% 21.5% -2.9 ppt 10.1% 10.3% 0.2 ppt 10.6% 10.8% 0.2 ppt 8.8% 8.5% -0.3 ppt 3.8% 4.5% 0.6 ppt 6.6% 7.7% 1.0 ppt -14.0% -17.4% -3.4 ppt Instant Noodles 7.8% 8.7% 0.9 ppt 8.4% 8.9% 0.5 ppt 6.2% 8.2% 2.0 ppt Beverages 1.1% 1.2% 0.1 ppt 2.2% 2.6% 0.4 ppt -5.8% -7.9% -2.2 ppt Total Gross Margin EBIT Margin Instant Noodles Beverages Source: the Company. * Include associates contribution. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 12 Company Report Net Margin Noodles Underperformed but Beverages Outperformed. Instant noodle business’s sales growth of Tingyi underperformed that of UPC’s in 2014. In addition, gross margin deterioration of such business of Tingyi was also worse than that of UPC. improvement was stronger. Both companies were working hard on their weaker business in 2014 that Tingyi had successfully improved its beverage business’s profitability, while UPC’s instant noodle business loss had been narrowed. However, earnings of core business of Tingyi (instant noodle) and UPC (beverages) in 2014 were lower than those in 2013. Table-5: Results Comparison Between Tingyi and UPC Tingyi (00322 HK) US$ million 2013 Revenue Noodles 4,332 Beverages 6,268 YoY Growth Noodles 9.4% Beverages 27.1% UPC (00220 HK) 2013 2014 2014 4,138 5,800 1,273 2,464 1,292 2,273 -4.5% -7.5% 10.5% 11.7% 1.5% -7.8% 1,267 1,927 1,172 1,851 372 882 371 802 29.2% 30.8% 28.3% 31.9% 29.2% 35.8% 28.7% 35.3% EBIT EBIT Margin 693 6.3% 679 6.6% 81 2.1% 35 1.0% Reported Net Profit Reported Net Margin 409 3.7% 400 3.9% 149 3.9% 46 1.3% Gross Profit Noodles Beverages Gross Margin Noodles Beverages 24 March 2015 However, Tingyi’s beverage business outperformed that of UPC as sales deterioration was less severe and gross margin Instant Noodle Business Outlook: Focus on Profitability Improvement. YTD (Jan. - Feb. 2015) production volume growth of instant noodles in China went up by 2.0% YoY. We remain cautious on the long term consumption demand for instant noodle in China. According to Nielsen, Tingyi’s market share in instant noodles market in 4Q14 was 46.3% & 55.6%, in terms of sales volume and sales value, Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) Source: the Companies, Bloomberg. respectively, while those of UPC were 17.0% and 18.0%, respectively. Both Tingyi’s and UPC’s market share in 4Q14 dropped QoQ. Both companies are expected to focus on profitability improvement in 2015 as demand remains weak. Figure-1: YoY & YTD Production Volume Growth Figure-2: YoY & YTD Revenue Growth of Instant Noodle of Instant Noodles in China and Instant Food Manufacturers in China 10% 15% YoY Growth Revenue - YTD Growth YTD Growth Prof it Bef ore Tax - YTD Growth 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. See the last page for disclaimer Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 -10% Jan&Feb-14 Jan&Feb-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Jan&Feb-14 -15% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Page 5 of 12 Company Report -10% Figure-3: Instant Noodle Market Share – by Volume 50% Figure-4: Instant Noodle Market Share – by Value 46.3% 60% 55.6% 24 March 2015 50% 40% 40% Tingyi 康 师傅 Uni-President 统一 Hualong 华龙 Baixian g 白象 30% 20% Tingyi 康 师傅 Uni-President 统一 Hualong 华龙 Baixian g 白象 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Source: Nielsen, the Company. Source: Nielsen, the Company. Slight Increase of Instant Noodle’s Raw Materials Prices. Flour accounts for 12%-18% of Tingyi’s instant noodle production cost and YoY flour price growth in 4Q14 slowed QoQ. Tingyi’s flour procurement cost was RMB3,460/ton in 4Q14, up 3.0% QoQ and 0.9% YoY. We expect Tingyi’s flour procurement cost to be RMB3,500/ton in 1Q15, representing 0.6% YoY increase. On the other hand, palm oil attributes 12%-15% to instant noodle manufacturing cost and Tingyi’s palm oil procurement price increased by 1.2% YoY in 4Q14 to RMB5,940/ton. We expect Tingyi’s palm oil procurement cost to be RMB6,300/ton in 1Q15, representing 3.4% YoY growth. Raw materials prices are expected to stay relatively stable in 2015 on weak demand. Figure-5: Average Flour Price YoY Growth Figure-6: vs. Tingyi Procurement Cost Average Palm Oil Price YoY Growth vs. Tingyi Procurement Cost RMB / ton RMB / ton 3,750 15% 3,500 10% 7,000 20% 6,500 10% 6,000 0% 5% 5,500 3,000 -10% 0% 5,000 Tingyi Flour Procurement Cost - LHS Tingyi Flour Procurement Cost YoY Growth - RHS Average Flour Price YoY Growth - RHS Source: the Company, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. -20% Tingyi Palm Oil Procurement Cost - LHS -30% 1Q15F 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 3Q13 4,000 2Q13 4,500 1Q13 1Q15F 4Q14 3Q14 2Q14 1Q14 4Q13 -10% 3Q13 2,500 2Q13 -5% 1Q13 2,750 Tingyi Palm Oil Procurement Cost YoY Growth (3M Lagged) - RHS Average MDE Palm Oil Price YoY Growth - RHS Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) 3,250 Source: the Company, MDEX, Guotai Junan International. Cut Earnings Forecasts of Instant Noodle Business in 2015-2016 on Conservative Sales Assumption. Tingyi’s management indicates that macro economy remains weak and thus, instant noodle business sales growth could still be under pressure in 2015. We revise down revenue and earnings forecasts of instant noodle business in 2015-2016 by 16.3% & 18.2% Company Report and 16.4% & 15.5%, respectively. See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 12 OLD 2015F 4,735 1,397 545 427 29.5% 11.5% 9.0% CHANGE 2015F 2016F -16.3% -16.4% -19.2% -16.4% -23.6% -20.0% -18.2% -15.5% -1.0 ppt SAME -1.0 ppt -0.5 ppt -0.2 ppt 0.1 ppt 2016F 5,043 1,462 580 458 29.0% 11.5% 9.1% 24 March 2015 Table-6: Instant Noodle Business Assumptions Revisions NEW US$ million 2015F 2016F 2017F Revenue 3,961 4,216 4,416 Gross Profit 1,129 1,223 1,281 EBIT 416 464 486 Net Profit 350 387 408 Gross Margin 28.5% 29.0% 29.0% EBIT Margin 10.5% 11.0% 11.0% Net Margin 8.8% 9.2% 9.2% Source: Guotai Junan International. Beverage Business Outlook: Fall in Market Share in 4Q14. YTD (Jan. - Feb. 2015) production volume growth of soft drinks in China was 5.4%. Tingyi’s market share (in terms of volume) in RTD tea (with milk), RTD tea (w/out milk), diluted juice drinks and water were 54.5%, 61.4%, 26.1% and 19.1% in 4Q14, respectively. The Company’s market shares in diluted juice drink and water in 4Q14 fell QoQ, which could be related to reduced promotions. With the help of weak raw materials prices, the Company has to invest more in R&D and promotions in order to drive sales growth in 2015. Figure-7: YoY Production Volume Growths of Figure-8: YTD Production Volume Growths of Various Soft Drinks in China Various Soft Drinks in China 40% 25% Soft Drinks CSD Water Others Sof t Drinks 30% CSD Water Others 20% 20% 15% 10% 10% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Figure-9: YoY & YTD Revenue Growth of Figure-10: YoY & YTD Profit Before Tax Growth of Beverages Manufacturers in China Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) Jan&Feb-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Jan&Feb-14 Jan&Feb-15 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 0% Apr-14 -20% Mar-14 5% Jan&Feb-14 -10% Mar-14 0% Beverages Manufacturers in China 20% 45% 15% 30% 10% 15% 5% 0% 0% -15% Adjusted YoY Growth Adjusted YoY Growth YTD Growth YTD Growth See the last page for disclaimer Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Page 7 of 12 Company Report Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Jan&Feb-14 Dec-14 Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Jun-14 May-14 Apr-14 Mar-14 -30% Jan&Feb-14 -5% Figure-11: RTD Tea Market Share Figure-12: RTD Tea Market Share (Include Dairy) – by Volume (Include Dairy) – by Value 54.5% 50% 60% 47.0% 50% Tingyi 康 师傅 Uni-President 统一 Wahaha 娃哈哈 Coca Cola 可口可乐 40% 30% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Tingyi 康 师傅 Uni-President 统一 Wahaha 娃哈哈 Coca Cola 可口可乐 24 March 2015 60% 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Source: Nielsen, the Company. Source: Nielsen, the Company. Figure-13: RTD Tea Market Share Figure-14: RTD Tea Market Share (Non-Dairy) – by Volume (Non-Dairy) – by Value 70% 70% 61.4% 60% 56.1% 60% 50% Tingyi 康 师傅 Uni-President 统一 Wahaha 娃哈哈 Coca Cola 可口可乐 40% Tingyi 康师傅 Uni-President 统一 Wahaha 娃哈哈 Coca Cola 可口可乐 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Source: Nielsen, the Company. Source: Nielsen, the Company. Figure-15: Diluted Juice Drink Market Share Figure-16: Bottled Water Market Share – by Volume – by Volume 40% Tingyi 康师傅 Coca Cola 可口可乐 Wahaha 娃哈哈 30% Uni-President 统一 Huiyuan 汇源 40% Tingyi 康师傅 Wahaha 娃哈哈 Coca Cola 可口可乐 26.1% Farmer's Spring 农夫山泉 Yi Bao 怡 宝 30% Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) 50% 19.1% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Source: Nielsen, the Company. 0% 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 Source: Nielsen, the Company. Huge Gross Margin Improvement for Beverage Business in 2015. PET resin attributed ~60% to beverage business COGS price slightly rebounds. We expect Tingyi’s PET resin and sugar procurement costs in 1Q15 to be RMB8,000/ton and RMB5,250/ton, down 19.4% and 3.8% YoY, respectively. We expect significant improvement in beverage business’s gross margin in 2015. See the last page for disclaimer Page 8 of 12 Company Report and sugar accounted for ~10% to beverage business COGS. Tingyi’s PET resin and sugar procurement costs dropped by 11.7% and 13.4% YoY, to RMB9,200/ton and RMB4,960/ton in 4Q14, respectively. PET resin price plunged in 1Q15 but sugar Figure-17: Average PET Resin Price YoY Growth Figure-18: vs. Tingyi Procurement Cost RMB / ton Average Sugar Price YoY Growth vs. Tingyi Procurement Cost Tingyi Sugar Procurement Cost - LHS Tingyi Sugar Procurement Cost YoY Growth - RHS Average Sugar Price YoY Growth - RHS Tingyi PET Resin Procurement Cost - LHS Tingyi PET Resin Procurement Cost YoY Growth - RHS Average PET Resin Price YoY Growth - RHS Source: the Company, www.ccf.com.cn, www.tbs-china.com, Guotai Junan International. 1Q15F -20% 4Q14 4,500 3Q14 -35% -10% 2Q14 5,000 5,000 1Q14 -30% 0% 4Q13 6,000 5,500 3Q13 -25% 10% 2Q13 7,000 6,000 1Q13 -20% 1Q15F 8,000 4Q14 -15% 3Q14 9,000 2Q14 -10% 1Q14 10,000 4Q13 -5% 3Q13 11,000 2Q13 0% 1Q13 12,000 24 March 2015 RMB / ton Source: the Company, www.jcichina.com, Guotai Junan International. Revise Up Earnings Forecast of Beverage Business on Better Gross Margin and Cost Control. Although beverage business was weak in 2014, we still expect exceptional hot and rainy weather in 2014 will not repeat in 2015 and thus, the Company’s sales growth should catch up slightly in 2H15. In addition, the plunge in PET resin price should benefit beverage business’s profitability, though partially of the benefits will be shared by increased R&D and to support distributors. Tingyi’s Table-7: Beverage Business Assumptions Revisions NEW US$ million 2015F 2016F Revenue 6,334 7,091 Gross Profit 2,217 2,411 EBIT 507 567 Net Profit 136 161 Gross Margin 35.0% 34.0% EBIT Margin 8.0% 8.0% Net Margin 2.2% 2.3% 2017F 7,895 2,606 632 193 33.0% 8.0% 2.5% OLD 2015F 6,636 2,190 398 119 33.0% 6.0% 1.8% 2016F 7,420 2,412 482 147 32.5% 6.5% 2.0% CHANGE 2015F 2016F -4.6% -4.4% 1.2% 0.0% 27.3% 17.6% 14.9% 9.2% 2.0 ppt 1.5 ppt 2.0 ppt 1.5 ppt 0.4 ppt 0.3 ppt Source: Guotai Junan International. Earnings Forecast Assumptions and Revisions: Earnings Cut on Lowered Contribution from Instant Noodle Business. Tingyi’s EPS forecasts for 2015-2016 are revised Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) beverage business earnings for 2015-2016 are revised up by 14.9% and 9.2%, respectively. down by 11.1% and 10.4%, respectively, due to lowered earnings contribution from instant noodle business. The Company’s EPS is expected to reach US$0.086, US$0.096 and US$0.106 in 2015-2017, up 19.6%, 12.7% and 9.8%, respectively. The earnings growth in 2015 is expected to speed up on expected lower termination benefits and gross margin improvement. US$ million Revenue Gross Profit EBIT Net Profit EPS (US$) Gross Margin EBIT Margin Net Margin 2015F 10,591 3,439 913 479 0.086 32.5% 8.6% 4.5% NEW 2016F 11,613 3,730 1,019 540 0.096 32.1% 8.8% 4.7% 2017F 12,628 3,987 1,102 593 0.106 31.6% 8.7% 4.7% OLD 2015F 11,719 3,695 934 539 0.096 31.5% 8.0% 4.6% 2016F 12,831 3,989 1,056 603 0.108 31.1% 8.2% 4.7% CHANGE 2015F 2016F -9.6% -9.5% -6.9% -6.5% -2.2% -3.5% -11.1% -10.4% -11.1% -10.4% 0.9 ppt 1.0 ppt 0.7 ppt 0.5 ppt -0.1 ppt 0.0 ppt Source: Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 9 of 12 Company Report Table-8: Earnings Estimate Revisions Downgrade to “Neutral” and Cut TP to HK$17.00. Tingyi’s 2014 results disappoint the market and the outlook in 2015 remains gloomy despite favourable raw materials prices. The Company is able to secure strong business partner such as F&B peers for stable revenue growth and are tolerance towards short term earnings fluctuation caused by raw materials prices. However, given low sales growth expectation and the majority of earnings growth is expected to be contributed by gross margin improvement brought by low raw material prices, there is highly likely for investors to keep devaluating the stock as well as the sector. Valuation is not cheap and the Company’s earnings growth will still be under pressure in 1H15. 24 March 2015 Disney and Starbucks but contribution is expected to be minimal in the short run. Investors are paying premium valuation to Therefore, we downgrade the Company’s investment rating to “Neutral” and cut its TP to HK$17.00, which represents 25.6x 2015 PER (10% premium to the 10-year average current year PER), 22.8x 2016 PER (5% premium to the 10-year average low forward PER) and 20.7x 2017 PER. Figure-20: Tingyi 12-Month Forward Core PER Band 30 30 20 20 High PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 34.9x Mean PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 27.7x Low PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 21.7x 10 Source: the Company, Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 2007 2006 2014 2005 0 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2006 2005 0 2007 High PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 38.1x Mean PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 29.9x Low PER (x) - Avg. 2005-2014: 23.3x 10 2014 40 2013 40 2012 50 2011 50 2010 x 60 2009 x 60 2008 Figure-19: Tingyi Current Year Core PER Band Source: the Company, Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. PER (x) FY14F Gross Margin FY14F Operating Margin FY14F 31.1 40.2 20.6 13.9 33.4 7.2 1.7 3.0 32.5 2.0 1.6 20.2 16.6 7.5 4.2 13.5 30.5 6.6 PBR (x) ROE (%) FY15F FY14F 18.7 6.6 27.1 24.3 3.5 16.3 57.8 26.6 14.3 9.2 8.8 31.3 32.0 23.5 Ticker $ Share Price Market Cap (HK$ mn) FY13A FY14F Want Want China 00151 HK HK$ 8.000 105,539 19.8 21.9 Tsingtao Brewery 00168 HK HK$ 50.250 69,454 27.3 Uni-President China 00220 HK HK$ 5.220 22,547 WH Group 00288 HK HK$ 4.230 61,963 Tingyi 00322 HK HK$ 17.740 99,416 Company China Foods 00506 HK HK$ 2.890 8,084 n.a. n.a. 80.3 1.3 (2.8) 22.7 0.5 Hengan International 01044 HK HK$ 85.500 104,687 28.3 28.0 22.9 5.9 21.7 45.6 20.6 China Yurun Food 01068 HK HK$ 2.430 4,429 101.3 n.a. 83.8 0.3 0.3 7.5 0.1 China Modern Dairy 01117 HK HK$ 2.650 12,792 21.6 13.9 10.2 1.5 16.5 37.4 27.3 5.0 China Mengniu Dairy 02319 HK HK$ 35.700 69,959 31.3 26.4 21.7 2.7 11.6 31.5 Vinda International 03331 HK HK$ 12.600 12,581 23.2 21.2 19.1 2.5 12.2 30.2 9.9 China Huishan Dairy 06863 HK HK$ 1.360 19,475 10.7 11.1 9.1 1.1 10.7 54.9 36.8 Simple Average 29.6 24.9 29.1 2.7 12.7 31.9 12.0 Weighted Average 25.3 25.4 21.4 4.0 17.9 34.7 12.8 Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) Table-9: Peers Valuation Comparison Company Report Source: Bloomberg. See the last page for disclaimer Page 10 of 12 Financial Statements and Ratios FY15F FY16F FY17F As at Dec 31 (US$ m) Turnover Cost of sales 10,941 (7,631) 10,238 (7,120) 10,591 (7,152) 11,613 (7,882) 12,628 (8,641) PP&E Prepaid lease payments Gross Profit 3,310 3,118 3,439 3,730 3,987 164 (2,313) (351) 155 (2,139) (300) 153 (2,235) (318) 163 (2,421) (348) 170 (2,589) (379) (118) (156) (126) (105) (87) 693 14 16 679 8 7 913 (12) 15 1,019 (11) 17 1,102 11 20 Profit before tax Taxation Minority interests 723 (229) (86) 694 (209) (84) 916 (286) (150) 1,025 (307) (178) Reported Net Profit Core Net Profit * Basic EPS (US$) 409 433 0.073 400 435 0.072 479 498 0.086 Core EPS (US$) 0.077 0.078 FY14A Other net income Distribution costs Administrative expenses Other operating expenses EBIT Finance income, net Share of results of associates FY13A Turnover - Instant noodles - Beverages - Instant food - Others EBIT (Include associates) - Instant noodles - Beverages - Instant food - Others Reported Net Profit - Instant noodles - Beverages - Instant food - Others FY14A FY15F FY16F FY17F 5,485 319 5,860 737 6,660 369 6,610 387 6,760 406 210 265 260 286 316 6,014 6,863 7,288 7,283 7,482 Inventories 481 387 475 494 548 Trade receivables 260 238 270 286 302 Prepayments and other receivables Cash and cash equivalents Others 414 1,250 5 533 1,183 2 483 1,228 2 532 1,289 2 575 1,240 2 1,133 (326) (214) Current assets 2,410 2,343 2,458 2,603 2,667 Trade payables 1,252 896 1,063 1,198 1,406 540 550 0.096 593 593 0.106 Other payables Borrowings Others 1,192 1,017 165 1,233 1,382 125 1,118 1,325 133 1,251 998 142 1,353 692 150 0.089 0.098 0.106 Current liabilities 3,625 3,636 3,640 3,589 3,600 Borrowings 660 1,247 1,325 998 692 FY15F FY16F FY17F Others 213 227 257 281 301 Non-current liabilities 872 1,474 1,582 1,279 993 Minority interests Shareholders' equity 1,046 2,880 1,062 3,034 1,213 3,313 1,390 3,629 1,604 3,952 BPS (US$) 0.515 0.541 0.591 0.647 0.705 FY15F FY16F FY17F Segment Results Year end Dec (US$ m) Others FY13A Non-current assets 10,941 4,332 6,268 203 139 10,238 4,138 5,800 179 121 10,591 3,961 6,334 176 119 11,613 4,216 7,091 185 120 12,628 4,416 7,895 196 120 709 686 928 1,036 1,122 Financial Ratio 437 239 (15) 425 258 (19) 416 507 (16) 464 567 (17) 486 632 (18) FY13A FY14A 18.8 (6.4) 3.4 9.6 8.7 48 21 22 22 22 409 337 71 (14) 15 400 360 72 (17) (14) 479 350 136 (15) 9 540 387 161 (16) 9 593 408 193 (17) 9 20.2 (14.8) 19.1 (5.8) (2.0) 0.4 10.3 34.6 14.5 8.5 11.5 10.3 6.9 8.1 7.9 Gross Margin (%) - Instant noodles - Beverages 30.3 29.2 30.8 30.5 28.3 31.9 32.5 28.5 35.0 32.1 29.0 34.0 31.6 29.0 33.0 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.6 11.2 13.5 13.7 13.6 6.3 6.6 8.6 8.8 8.7 10.1 3.8 3.7 7.8 1.1 4.0 6.2 10.3 4.5 3.9 8.7 1.2 4.3 5.5 10.5 8.0 4.5 8.8 2.2 4.7 6.6 11.0 8.0 4.7 9.2 2.3 4.7 7.3 11.0 8.0 4.7 9.2 2.5 4.7 8.1 Revenue Growth (%) Gross Profit Growth (%) EBIT Growth (%) Core Net Profit Growth (%) EBIT Margin (%) Cash Flow Statement Year end Dec (US$ m) FY13A FY14F FY15F FY16F FY17F Profit before taxation Depreciation Others Working capital change Interest and tax paid 723 444 7 303 (263) 694 454 (12) (325) (279) 916 500 (2) (13) (325) 1,025 550 (6) 190 (353) 1,133 600 (30) 203 (360) - Instant noodles - Beverages Net Margin (%) - Instant noodles - Beverages Core Net Margin (%) ROA (%) Operating cash flow 1,214 532 1,077 1,406 1,545 ROE (%) 15.1 13.5 15.1 15.6 15.6 Purchase of PP&E (852) (940) (1,300) (500) (750) Inventory turnover days 22.9 22.2 22.0 22.4 22.0 61 (407) 447 33 38 Account receivable days 8.2 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.5 (791) (1,347) (853) (467) (712) Account payable days 54.9 55.1 50.0 52.4 55.0 Cash conversion cycle (23.7) (23.9) (19.3) (21.2) (24.5) Change in borrowings, net 186 952 22 (655) (613) Dividends paid and others Others Investing cash flow (221) (204) (200) (239) (270) Current ratio (x) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Financing cash flow (34) 748 (179) (894) (882) Quick ratio (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Change in cash and cash equivalents 389 (67) 45 45 (49) 19.5 0 0 15 0 73.2 92.8 Cash balance at year end 1,250 1,183 1,228 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. * Excludes impairment loss and structural consolidation cost. 1,289 1,240 47.7 Net interest income 50.0 42.9 23 14.8 Net interest income 50.0 50.0 50.0 3.6 Net interest income 50.0 Foreign exchange effect See the last page for disclaimer Net gearing (%) Net interest cover (x) Payout ratio (%) Page 11 of 12 Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) FY14A 24 March 2015 Balance Sheet FY13A Company Report Income Statement Year end Dec (US$ m) Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. 24 March 2015 Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Outperform Definition Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. (1) (2) (3) (4) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Tingyi 康师傅 (00322 HK) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. See the last page for disclaimer Company Report © 2015 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. 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