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20 April 2015
Weekly Express
HK Property Sector
Property Sector
MP
UP
China Property Sector
UP
OP
MP
OP
All-round recovery to come in 2Q15
Focus chart:
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
0
14 Apr 14
28 Apr 14
12 May 14
26 May 14
9 Jun 14
23 Jun 14
7 Jul 14
21 Jul 14
4 Aug 14
18 Aug 14
1 Sep 14
15 Sep 14
29 Sep 14
13 Oct 14
27 Oct 14
10 Nov 14
24 Nov 14
8 Dec 14
22 Dec 14
5 Jan 15
19 Jan 15
2 Feb 15
16 Feb 15
2 Mar 15
16 Mar 15
30 Mar 15
13 Apr 15
100
Jul-12
200
Oct-12
300
Jan-12
400
Apr-12
500
1st-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
2nd-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
3rd-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
Jul-11
600
(%)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Oct-11
(No. of units)
700
Sector Weekly Performance
China 70-city new home price MoM
Jan-11
Apr-11
HK weekend primary market volume
HSI
HK Prop
NAV discount (%)
HIBOR (1W,%)
Index
27,653
4,494
-35.7
0.0993
% WoW
Total
Return
1.4
-1.3
-0.9%pt
-0.015%pt
% YTD
Total
Return
17.7
15.6
HSCEI
China Prop
NAV discount (%)
SHIBOR (1W,%)
14,537
3.9
14,635
4.0
-35.5
2.5%pt
2.8730 -0.097%pt
21.3
29.0
Source: Bloomberg,BOCOM Int'l estimate
Source: Local news, Wind, BOCOM Int'l
Upcoming Economic Releases
Hong Kong property
Buoyant sales but home prices under pressure. In less than a month, 2,276 flats in 3
major new projects (Twin Peaks, Hemera, and Peninsula East) were over 99% sold.
The fast launch paces and undercutting ASP (even at latter batches) reflect
developers’ cautious view towards the outlook of the property market. Going
forward, we believe developers will remain conservative in pricing new launches,
exerting great pressure on secondary home prices. The sector is trading at a 36%
NAV discount. We continue to like landlords, with +ve rental reversion potential and
catch-up in valuation, and reiterate Hysan (14 HK) as our top pick.
China property
Expect an all-round recovery in 2Q15. According to NBS, March new home prices
st
rose 0.2% MoM in 1 -tier cities and 12 out of 70 cities saw MoM price increase,
compared with only 2 in February (Figure 11 and 12). Together with the volume
rebound and continuous high take-up in March, the improved home price
performance indicated that the supportive measures in the past 2 months have
st
nd
greatly improved market sentiment. Going forward, we expect 1 /major 2 -tier
cities to experience further recovery (in terms of volume and price) in 2Q15, with
developers rolling out more new projects and ‘330’ policies gradually taking effect.
Moreover, the wealth effect in the stock market may spill over to the property
market, especially from upgraders’ demand. In fact, the sector leaders have
beefed up marketing campaigns recently with various eye-catching news coming out
from Vanke, Shimao, and Poly. Evergrande even announced unconditional sales
cancellation to attract investors and hesitant end-users. Last week, the sector NAV
discount narrowed further to 35.5% and we expect further upside for Shimao (813
HK), KWG (1813 HK), and CIFI (884 HK), which are currently trading at discounts of
42%~56% to NAV. We also believe Wanda (3699 HK, not rated) will continue catching
up with other large-cap peers.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Apr 21
HK Mar CPI
Apr 23
Apr P HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Apr P Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Source: Bloomberg
Upcoming Company Events
Apr 20
LANGHAM (1270 HK) AGM
Apr 22
Shanghai Lujiazui (600663 CH) AGM
COLI (688 HK) 1Q15 result
Apr 24
CHINA NEW TOWN (CNTD SP) AGM
Vanke (2202 HK) 1Q15 result
Source: Bloomberg
Luella Guo
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9211
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9235
Philip Tse, CFA, FRM
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9220
20 April 2015
Property Sector
Part 1: Valuation
Figure 1: Valuation of Hong Kong Property sector
Company name
Ticker
HK Developers
SHKP
16 HK
Cheung Kong
1 HK
Henderson Land
12 HK
New World Dev
17 HK
Sino Land
83 HK
Wheelock
20 HK
Kerry
683 HK
Far East Consortium
35 HK
K. Wah
173 HK
Midland
1200 HK
HK developers total / average
ex-Cheung Kong
HK Landlords
Wharf
Hang Lung Properties
Hysan
Swire Properties
Great Eagle
Total / average
4 HK
101 HK
14 HK
1972 HK
41 HK
BOCOM
rating
17 Apr
price
(HK$)
Target
price
(HK$)
Upside
(%)
Market
—— P/E ——
———— P/B ———— —— Yield ——
cap FY15E FY16E latest FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E
(HK$m)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(%)
(%)
Sell
BUY
Sell
BUY
BUY
Neutral
BUY
BUY
NR
Neutral
125.80
164.50
59.20
9.66
13.30
41.50
30.50
3.23
4.58
3.50
105.50
170.40
47.60
10.90
14.40
39.20
30.60
3.60
N/A
3.90
-16.1
+3.6
-19.6
+12.8
+8.3
-5.5
+0.3
+11.5
N/A
+11.4
361,426
381,009
177,620
85,910
80,954
84,322
44,069
6,181
12,765
2,513
1,234,257
853,248
16.2
12.5
19.0
14.3
15.1
9.2
13.4
5.8
14.2
-33.7
14.1
14.9
16.0
11.6
17.9
13.5
14.5
8.5
10.9
5.2
8.4
24.8
13.1
14.0
Neutral
Buy
Buy
NR
NR
55.85
23.60
34.90
24.20
28.35
54.90
25.10
43.60
N/A
N/A
-1.7
+6.4
+24.9
N/A
N/A
169,283
105,853
37,129
141,570
18,609
472,445
14.5
17.9
15.8
19.5
10.9
16.3
13.2
17.5
14.8
18.8
9.9
15.4
0.82
0.97
0.75
0.52
0.71
0.44
0.55
0.68
0.51
1.88
0.74
0.67
0.55
0.80
0.55
0.68
0.36
0.62
BOCOM/
Consensus
NAV
(HK$)
Prem/ —— ROE ——
(disc) FY15E FY16E
(%)
(%)
(%)
— Net gearing —
FY15E
FY16E
(%)
(%)
0.79
0.95
0.71
0.51
0.69
0.42
0.53
0.63
0.59
1.92
0.72
0.65
0.77
0.90
0.68
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.49
0.58
0.55
1.80
0.69
0.63
2.7
2.3
2.0
4.3
4.1
2.7
2.6
5.3
3.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.4
2.1
4.3
4.2
2.8
2.8
5.9
3.3
2.8
2.8
3.0
175.85
227.80
81.90
19.76
24.00
93.80
68.10
9.39
9.63
n.a.
(28.5)
(27.8)
(27.7)
(51.1)
(44.6)
(55.8)
(55.2)
(65.6)
(52.4)
n.a.
(36.3)
(39.5)
5
8
4
4
5
5
5
11
3
10
5
8
4
4
5
5
5
11
7
11
11
16
15
22
Net cash
17
32
41
41
Net cash
-
5
13
15
23
Net cash
13
32
35
16
Net cash
-
0.54
0.79
0.54
0.67
0.36
0.60
0.52
0.76
0.52
0.66
0.35
0.59
3.6
3.3
3.6
2.7
2.5
3.2
4.0
3.3
3.8
2.8
2.7
3.4
98.90
35.86
67.00
35.04
62.05
(43.5)
(34.2)
(47.9)
(30.9)
(54.3)
(39.2)
4
5
3
3
3
4
5
3
4
3
17
Net cash
4
17
33
16
Net cash
3
16
31
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimates
Figure 2: Valuation of China Property sector
———— P/B ————
latest FY15E FY16E
(x)
(x)
(x)
Prem/
(disc)
(%)
6.6
8.0
7.0
2.9
8.6
5.0
8.0
5.5
7.3
6.3
N/A
3.9
12.7
30.4
4.0
31.9
21.5
7.9
15.1
10.7
12.6
5.0
4.6
12.9
(54.2)
(41.8)
(55.1)
(22.7)
(57.0)
(24.2)
(43.6)
(46.9)
(45.4)
(56.2)
(72.1)
(73.3)
11
17
6
13
13
9
13
2
15
22
17
14
10
17
7
13
13
10
11
2
16
22
N/A
16
69
69
65
55
106
56
96
39
54
71
61
26.8
73
68
66
59
88
59
85
45
46
64
N/A
21.5
2.4
5.9
6.1
3.2
N/A
3.4
4.4
2.6
2.3
N/A
15.1
3.8
4.4
5.2
12.2
7.0
4.0
3.3
4.3
5.6
28.8
7.5
5.3
17.0
5.2
5.7
5.1
12.9
10.8
31.0
6.6
12.9
9.7
2.1
5.6
2.0
20.4
100.0
4.1
(37.4)
(28.1)
(27.6)
(79.8)
(60.3)
(42.2)
(64.4)
(59.9)
(74.3)
(76.3)
(33.2)
(82.6)
(40.0)
(62.3)
(17.2)
(4.5)
(46.8)
(36.3)
(53.0)
18
10
17
15
N/A
1
10
4
17
2
17
23
5
11
18
12
20
11
18
10
17
15
N/A
2
10
5
18
2
18
23
4
12
19
20
20
13
20
117
49
52
N/A
84
81
95
55
N/A
58
45
25
81
55
N/A
27
55
61
65
2
104
35
35
N/A
86
66
81
35
N/A
32
19
N/A
80
52
N/A
28
54
52
55
—— Yield ——
FY15E FY16E
(%)
(%)
3.7
4.3
1.9
2.1
1.3
1.5
1.3
1.5
2.4
2.7
0.7
1.4
1.3
1.3
2.1
2.5
Consensus
NAV
(Rmb)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Prem/
(disc)
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Ticker
BOCOM
rating
17 Apr
price
(HK$)
Target
price
(HK$)
Upside
(%)
Rated stocks
Agile Property
Shimao Property
Yuexiu Property
CR Land
Guangzhou R&F
Sino-Ocean Land
Greentown
SOHO China
KWG Property
CIFI
Wuzhou
CSC
3383 HK
813 HK
123 HK
1109 HK
2777 HK
3377 HK
3900 HK
410 HK
1813 HK
884 HK
1369 HK
1668 HK
Neutral
BUY
LT Buy
BUY
Neutral
Neutral
SELL
Neutral
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
5.82
17.70
1.80
24.65
9.24
5.99
8.52
5.69
6.90
2.19
1.29
3.44
6.36
22.80
2.21
27.11
10.75
5.49
7.51
6.43
8.22
2.50
2.08
4.25
9.3
28.8
22.8
10.0
16.3
(8.3)
(11.9)
13.0
19.1
14.2
61.2
23.5
22,797
61,465
22,322
160,988
29,775
44,957
18,412
29,585
20,330
13,199
6,009
27,522
4.5
4.4
9.3
10.0
3.6
8.0
3.0
34.1
5.1
4.1
5.4
9.6
4.0
3.9
7.2
8.6
3.1
7.2
2.9
26.9
4.3
3.2
N/A
8.4
0.54
1.05
0.61
1.49
0.66
0.83
0.66
0.60
0.80
1.03
1.31
1.22
0.45
0.86
0.46
1.38
0.57
0.76
0.49
0.57
0.71
0.82
1.05
1.13
0.41
0.74
0.44
1.23
0.51
0.70
0.43
0.55
0.64
0.67
N/A
1.04
5.9
7.1
5.4
2.5
8.0
4.6
7.8
5.5
6.3
5.1
5.5
3.5
688 HK
3333 HK
2007 HK
960 HK
845 HK
272 HK
817 HK
119 HK
81 HK
754 HK
1638 HK
1918 HK
1224 HK
1777 HK
832 HK
1238 HK
2202 HK
3699 HK
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
29.95
4.71
3.78
12.32
1.05
2.25
2.95
4.59
4.34
7.97
1.56
8.63
1.69
1.26
2.11
1.69
19.52
53.20
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
244,811
69,389
76,930
71,589
8,182
18,004
26,751
16,806
9,905
17,884
8,011
29,211
4,374
7,254
5,139
6,755
204,104
240,855
1,242,175
632,272
9.0
8.1
6.1
7.4
5.3
33.3
7.3
11.3
4.5
19.0
1.9
5.0
6.5
5.3
3.1
2.5
8.4
10.1
7.2
6.0
7.9
7.4
5.4
6.7
9.3
12.8
6.5
10.0
3.7
14.2
1.6
4.3
7.0
4.5
2.5
1.3
7.3
8.1
6.3
5.3
1.84
1.07
1.08
1.20
0.42
0.38
0.81
0.56
0.81
0.32
0.35
1.43
0.30
0.61
0.64
0.29
1.95
1.25
1.06
0.77
1.56
0.67
0.96
1.05
0.42
0.33
0.72
0.51
0.67
0.32
0.27
1.09
0.28
0.51
0.52
N/A
1.63
1.11
0.90
0.65
1.35
0.64
0.85
0.93
0.41
0.32
0.67
0.49
0.57
0.31
0.23
0.90
0.27
0.46
0.45
N/A
1.39
1.00
0.81
0.59
2.1
5.7
5.4
2.9
N/A
2.5
3.9
2.3
1.9
N/A
13.9
3.3
4.4
4.8
10.0
4.8
3.5
2.7
3.9
5.0
Ticker
BOCOM
rating
000002 CH
600048 CH
600383 CH
000024 CH
000402 CH
600663 CH
600823 CH
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
NR
17 Apr
price
(Rmb)
14.7
13.8
12.2
32.0
12.9
41.8
20.5
Target
price
(Rmb)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Target
price
(Rmb)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Non-rated stocks
COLI
Evergrande
Country Garden
Longfor
Glorious Property
Shui On Land
Franshion Property
Poly (HK)
COGO
Hopson
Kaisa
Sunac
CC Land
Fantasia
Central China
Powerlong
Vanke-HK
Wanda Commercial
Total / average
Ex-COLI/CR Land/Vanke
Market
—— P/E ——
cap FY15E FY16E
(HK$m)
(x)
(x)
BOCOM/
Consensus
NAV
(HK$)
Company name
—— Yield ——
FY15E FY16E
(%)
(%)
—— ROE ——
FY15E FY16E
(%)
(%)
— Net gearing —
FY15E
FY16E
(%)
(%)
A-shares
Company name
Vanke (A)
Poly Real Estate
Gemdale
China Merchant
Financial Street
Shanghai Lujiazui
Shanghai Shimao
Total / average
Market
—— P/E ——
cap FY15E FY16E
(Rmb m)
(x)
(x)
163,147
7.9
6.8
148,555
9.9
8.5
54,841
11.9
10.6
75,339
14.8
12.7
38,468
11.0
10.3
66,630
47.2
37.3
24,070
10.6
9.7
571,050
10.9
9.5
———— P/B ————
latest FY15E FY16E
(x)
(x)
(x)
1.84
1.53
1.31
2.42
1.92
1.61
1.75
1.54
1.39
2.65
2.28
2.01
1.59
1.40
1.27
6.77
4.90
4.39
1.50
1.42
1.23
2.19
1.84
1.59
—— ROE ——
FY15E FY16E
(%)
(%)
20
20
21
20
12
13
16
17
12
12
11
12
14
14
— Net gearing —
FY15E
FY16E
(%)
(%)
25
27
90
76
75
72
26
22
70
75
80
75
39
34
58
54
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimates
*CSC NAV @HK$12.9 (or HK$9.0 if excluding new business)
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
2
20 April 2015
Property Sector
Part 2: Stock market
HK Property Market
HK developers slipped 1.3% WoW and HK landlords retreated 3.1% WoW, vs. a gain of
1.4% WoW in HSI. The sector NAV discount widened to 35.7% (from 34.8% in the
previous week).
Figure 3: Top 5 gainers and losers, 5D total return
Figure 4: Top 5 gainers and losers, YTD total return
Top 5 gainers & losers of YTD Total return (%)
Top 5 gainers & losers of 5D Total return (%)
Cheung Kong
Yuexiu REIT
HKL
Wheelock
Sunlight REIT
HSI
HK Prop
HK Inv
Hui Xian REIT
Wharf
New Century Hotel REIT
Link REIT
Midland
Kerry
HKL
Champion REIT
New Century Hotel REIT
Regal REIT
HSI
HK Prop
HK Inv
Sunlight REIT
Wheelock
Fortune REIT
Wharf
Link REIT
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimate
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimate
Figure 5: Sector NAV discount
NAV discount
Average since 2009
+1 SD
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
(70)
-1 SD
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-98
Oct-99
Oct-00
Oct-01
Oct-02
Oct-03
Oct-92
Oct-93
Oct-94
Oct-95
Oct-96
Oct-97
Oct-88
Oct-89
Oct-90
Oct-91
NAV discount:
35.7%
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
(%)
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimate
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
3
20 April 2015
Property Sector
China Property Market
China developers rose 4% WoW, slightly outperforming HSCEI by 0.1ppt. CIFI (884 HK),
one of our top picks, surged 16% WoW. The sector NAV discount narrowed further to
35.5% (from 38% in the previous week).
Figure 6: Top 5 gainers and losers, 5D total return
Figure 7: Top 5 gainers and losers, YTD total return
Top 5 gainers & losers of YTD Total return (%)
Top 5 gainers & losers of 5D Total return (%)
Beijing North Star
Greenland (HK)
China Merchant
Cifi Holding
Morden Proeprty
CH Prop
HSCEI
COGO
Wanda Hotel
China South City
Fantasia
Renhe
BCL
Greenland (HK)
SZI
China Merchant
Beijing North Star
CH Prop
HSCEI
China SCE
Wuzhou
Glorious
Zhong An
Hydoo
(20)
0
20
40
(30)(20)(10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110
60
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimates
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimates
Figure 8: Sector NAV discount
(%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
NAV discount
Average since 2010
Max
Min
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
NAV discount:
35.5%
Source: Bloomberg consensus, BOCOM Int'l estimates
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
4
20 April 2015
Property Sector
Part 3: Physical market
HK Property Market
The primary market continued to receive keen take-up with 432 units sold over the
nd
previous weekend, led by CK’s Hemera 2 batch (398 units, 100% sold). Dragged by the
buoyant primary market, the secondary market volume stayed low, with only 6
transactions at 10 major housing estates during the previous weekend and 79 units at 50
major housing estates during the previous week.
Figure 9: Weekend primary market sales volume
Figure 10: Secondary market sales volume
(No. of units)
(No. of units)
700
80
600
70
(No. of units)
Weekend: 10 major estates (LHS)
Weekly: 50 major estates (RHS)
300
250
60
500
200
50
400
150
40
300
30
100
10
0
0
Source: Local news, BOCOM Int'l
100
50
0
14 Apr 13
12 May 13
9 Jun 13
7 Jul 13
4 Aug 13
1 Sep 13
29 Sep 13
27 Oct 13
24 Nov 13
22 Dec 13
19 Jan 14
16 Feb 14
16 Mar 14
13 Apr 14
11 May 14
8 Jun 14
6 Jul 14
3 Aug 14
31 Aug 14
28 Sep 14
26 Oct 14
23 Nov 14
21 Dec 14
18 Jan 15
15 Feb 15
15 Mar 15
12 Apr 15
20
14 Apr 14
28 Apr 14
12 May 14
26 May 14
9 Jun 14
23 Jun 14
7 Jul 14
21 Jul 14
4 Aug 14
18 Aug 14
1 Sep 14
15 Sep 14
29 Sep 14
13 Oct 14
27 Oct 14
10 Nov 14
24 Nov 14
8 Dec 14
22 Dec 14
5 Jan 15
19 Jan 15
2 Feb 15
16 Feb 15
2 Mar 15
16 Mar 15
30 Mar 15
13 Apr 15
200
Source: Local news, BOCOM Int'l
China Property Market
Both 10/30-city weekly volume rebounded last week, while developers were still
restrained in new supply. In fact, 10-city net take-up has stayed over 80% (most of the
time over 100%) every week in 2015. As a result, inventory kept edging down in the past
few months. Last week, 10-city inventory absorption cycle dropped below 12 months to a
34-week low (last time it fell below 12 months was in Aug 2014).
Figure 11: 70-city new home price MoM % (by tiers)
(%)
Figure 12: 70-city new home price MoM direction
1st-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
2nd-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
3rd-tier cities New Commercial Home ASP MoM %
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Increase
(No. of cities)
2
7 4
6 9 10
4 4 18 20
Decrease
1
1
Flat
1
3
3
4
2
8
8
35
62 57
56
55 64 68 69 69 67 66 64 66 50
44
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
2
2
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
1
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
1
Aug-14
12
2
Jul-14
8
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
15
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
5
20 April 2015
Property Sector
(No of units)
80,000
30 cities weekly volume (LHS)
(%)
4-wk momentum (RHS)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
60,000
40,000
20,000
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
Figure 15: 10 cities’ inventory level
Figure 16: 10 cities’ sales sentiment
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
12
1.5
10
1.0
8
0.5
Apr-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
0.0
May-15
Jan-15
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sep-13
May-13
Total take-up< New supply
Jan-13
(1.0)
Sep-12
0
May-12
(0.5)
Jan-12
2
Sep-11
4
May-11
6
Total take-up> New supply
2.0
Jan-11
14
10 cities Sales sentiment
2.5
Sep-10
(Months)
16
Jan-10
Absorption (RHS)
May-10
10 cities Inventory (LHS)
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
(No of units)
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
0
Apr-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
90
75
60
45
30
15
0
(15)
(30)
(45)
Sep-14
(%)
4-wk momentum (RHS)
Jul-14
10 cities weekly volume (LHS)
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
(No of units)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Figure 14: 30 cities’ volume and momentum
Feb-14
Mar-14
Figure 13: 10 cities’ volume and momentum
Source: Wind, BOCOM Int'l
*Sales sentiment =0 indicates 100% net take-up (total take-up=new supply).
Sales sentiment >0 indicates >100% net take-up (total take-up>new supply),
and vice versa. We consider net take-up of 60%~80% (sales sentiment of
-0.5~-0.2) to be healthy.
6
20 April 2015
Property Sector
BOCOM International
11/F, ManYeeBuilding, 68 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong
Main: + 852 3710 3328
Fax: + 852 3798 0133
Rating System
Company Rating
www.bocomgroup.com
Sector Rating
Buy: Expect more than 20% upside in 12 months
LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months
Neutral: Expect low volatility
Sell: Expect more than 20% downside in 12 months
Outperform (“OP”): Expect more than 10% upside in 12 months
Market perform (“MP”): Expect low volatility
Underperform (“UP”): Expect more than 10% downside in 12 months
Research Team
Head of Research
@bocomgroup.com
Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA
@bocomgroup.com
(852) 2977 9393
raymond.cheng
(852) 2977 9384
hao.hong
(852) 2977 9212
yangqingli
Fei WU
(852) 2977 9392
fei.wu
Shanshan LI, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058
lishanshan
Tony LIU
(852) 2977 9390
xutong.liu
Li WAN, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051
Wanli
Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9235
alfred.lau
Philip TSE, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9220
philip.tse
Luella GUO
(852) 2977 9211
luella.guo
(86) 21 6065 3606
louis.sun
(852) 2977 9209
lizhiwu
(852) 2977 9216
miles.xie
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA
(852) 2977 9380
geoffrey.cheng
Fay ZHOU
(852) 2977 9381
fay.zhou
(86) 21 6065 3675
wei.yao
Strategy
Economics
Hao HONG, CFA
Banks/Network Financials
Qingli YANG
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8043
miaoxian.li
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities
Consumer Discretionary
Property
Phoebe WONG
(852) 2977 9391
phoebe.wong
Anita CHU
(852) 2977 9205
anita.chu
Consumer Staples
Renewable Energy
Summer WANG
(852) 2977 9221
summer.wang
Shawn WU
(852) 2977 9386
shawn.wu
(852) 2977 9387
milo.liu
Jerry LI
(852) 2977 9389
liwenbing
Jennifer ZHANG
(852) 2977 9250
yufan.zhang
Yuan MA, PhD
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039
yuan.ma
Connie GU, CPA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045
conniegu
(852) 2977 9243
jovi.li
Healthcare
Louis SUN
Telecom & Small/ Mid-Caps
Milo LIU
Insurance & Brokerage
Zhiwu LI
Technology
Internet
Miles XIE
Transportation & Industrial
Metals & Mining
Jovi LI
Miaoxian LI
Automobile
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Wei YAO
7
Property Sector
20 April 2015
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and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (ii) no part of any of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
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8