Morning Express
10 October 2014
Focus of the Day
Indices
Technology Sector
SH-HK Stock Connect - High-quality HK-listed industry leaders will likely
be favored
Miles XIE
[email protected]
UP
MP
OP
1) High-quality industry leaders listed in Hong Kong with scarcity value will likely be
favored by investors.
2) H-share listed technology stocks are generally more attractively valued than their
A-share counterparts.
Close
HSI
23,535
H Shares
10,484
SH A
2,501
SH B
267
SZ A
1,416
SZ B
978
DJIA
16,659
S&P 500
1,928
Nasdaq
4,378
FTSE
6,432
CAC
4,141
DAX
9,005
Source: Bloomberg
1d %
1.17
0.85
0.28
-0.57
0.29
0.22
-1.97
-2.07
-2.02
-0.78
-0.64
0.11
Ytd %
0.98
-3.08
12.96
5.09
28.32
12.70
0.50
4.32
4.83
-4.70
-3.60
-5.73
Close
90.05
1,223.64
17.34
6,720.00
107.84
1.61
1.27
3m %
-16.84
-8.39
-19.00
-5.68
-6.03
-5.90
-6.77
Ytd %
-18.73
1.49
-10.94
-8.70
-2.35
-2.63
-7.68
bps change
HIBOR
0.37
US 10 yield
2.31
Source: Bloomberg
3m
-0.01
-0.22
6m
0.00
-0.33
Indicators
Transportation Sector
Weekly transportation news wrap
Ian FENG
[email protected]
Weekly
Aviation - IATA reiterated that both passenger and freight volume continued to show
positive trend, based on August reported data.
China logistics sector - The State Council published the Medium-to-Long Term
Development Plan (2014-2020), in which we do not find too many new initiatives.
China National Day holiday traffic performance - The estimated aviation and railway
volume during the holiday period increased by single digits only.
Brent
Gold
Silver
Copper
JPY
GBP
EURO
HSI Technical
HSI
50 d MA
200 d MA
14 d RSI
Short Sell (HK$m)
Source: Bloomberg
23,535
24,459
23,147
42
6,121
BOCOM Int'l Corporate Access
21 Oct
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Tasly Pharma Group (600535 CH)
Morning Express
10 October 2014
Hang Seng Index (1 year)
Geely Auto (175.HK)
Neutral
Sept sales strengthens our confidence in outlook
26,000
LT
BUY
SELL
25,000
BUY
24,000
23,000
22,000
Wei YAO
Last Closing: HK$3.51
[email protected]
Upside: +12.8%
Stock
21,000
Target Price: HK$3.96↑
(1) Geely announced that it sold 39,019 vehicles in Sept, up 41.0% MoM and down 9.3%
YoY. Sept MoM sales showed a significant rebound. (2) The New Emgrand contributed
the most to the sales rebound. (3) Exports remained weak. (4) Optimization of product
mix may continue. (5) Maintain LT-Buy and raise TP to HK$3.96. Overall, the sales growth
of New Emgrand was the key to the stronger-than-expected sales in Sept, which
contributed to the sales improvement and optimization of product mix. We expect the
sales of New Emgrand to increase further ahead, while the energy-saving car subsidies
could help sales recovery. Based on the latest sales data, we have made structural
adjustments on the sales assumption of each product. We revise our FY14-16E earnings
estimates. Our revised FY14/15/16E EPS estimates are RMB0.25/0.31/0.37, up
-0.2%/0.9%/1.5%. The stronger-than-expected Sept sales could help improve the
achievement of sales target this year. Coupled with the better potential sales and
stronger confidence in earnings growth next year, we raise our TP to HK$3.96, equivalent
to 10x FY15E PE. Maintain LT-Buy.
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
HS China Enterprise Index (1 year)
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Shanghai A-shares (1 year)
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Shenzhen A-shares (1 year)
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
10 October 2014
Shanghai-HK Stock Connect
Technology Sector
Miles Xie
Technology Sector
(852) 2977 9216
[email protected]
High-quality HK-listed industry leaders will likely be favored
Investment Summary
1. High-quality industry leaders listed in Hong Kong with scarcity value will likely be favored by investors.
2. H-share listed technology stocks are generally more attractively valued than their A-share counterparts.
Sector Attributes
% of index*
5 most representative
stocks in the universe
Valuation
Sector average
A Shares
H Shares
SSE 180 Index (3.07%)
SSE 380 Index (5.71%)
Sichuan Changhong (600839 CH)
Sanan Optoelectronics (600703 CH)
Hisense Electric (600060 CH)
Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics (600584 CH)
Qingdao Haier (600690 CH)
Hang Seng Composite Large Cap Index (1.41%)
Hang Seng Composite Mid Cap Index (4.57%)
Lenovo (992 HK)
SMIC (981 HK)
AAC Tech (2018 HK)
Digital China (861 HK)
ASM Pacific (522 HK)
A shares: 27.9x 2014E P/E
H shares: 17.5x 2014E P/E, indicative of notable valuation discount
Fundamental view
Commonalities
A new boom cycle for the global technology sector driven by mobile, smart devices and enhanced connectivity;
Benefitting from huge demand from China; and
Rising competitiveness and market position of the Chinese companies across the global industry chain
Differences
The A-share market (including Shenzhen Stock Exchange) has
more technology stocks.
A-share listed technology stocks are mainly private companies
with smaller scales and higher valuations.
A)
Trading strategies
Source: Factset, Company
The H-share market has industry leaders with scarcity value,
some of which possess global competitiveness.
H-share listed technology stocks enjoy notable valuation
advantage.
Watch Qingdao Haier (600690.CH), given
Its leadership in the China refrigerator and washing machine
industries; and
Foray into e-commerce with Alibaba
*Approximate representations as of Sept 14, 2014.
H)
Buy Lenovo and SMIC, given:
Lenovo is a leader in the global PC industry; and
SMIC benefits directly from the rise of China’s semi-conductor
industry.
Valuation Summary
Company
Stock
name
ticker
Rating
TP
(HK$)
Lenovo
992.HK
BUY
13.00
SMIC
981.HK
BUY
2018.HK
Digital China
ASM Pacific
CP
––––– EPS –––––
EPS Consensus
–––––– P/E ––––––
–––––– P/B ––––––
FY14E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
(HK$/RMB)
(RMB)
(RMB)
(RMB)
(RMB)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(%)
11.82
0.062
0.079
0.087
0.100
16.2
14.2
4.1
3.4
2.2
0.81
0.79
0.000
0.004
0.005
0.006
19.3
15.5
1.14
1.06
0.0
NEUTRAL
46.70
46.20
1.41
1.83
2.02
2.30
19.5
17.2
5.2
4.4
2.2
861.HK
NEUTRAL
8.10
7.35
1.065
0.593
0.791
0.862
9.9
9.1
0.9
0.8
2.3
522.HK
BUY
92.00
77.85
1.73
1.40
3.69
4.67
22.8
18.0
4.3
3.8
1.0
Sichuan Changhong
600839.CH
NR
NA
4.33
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.14
45.6
32.1
1.4
1.4
0.2
Sanan
600703.CH
NR
NA
14.80
0.72
0.68
0.68
0.94
22.6
16.4
2.9
2.6
1.2
Hisense
600060.CH
NR
NA
11.76
1.21
1.13
1.13
1.24
10.3
9.4
1.4
1.3
2.0
Jiangsu Changjiang
600584.CH
NR
NA
11.93
0.01
0.23
0.23
0.39
51.9
30.1
3.3
3.0
0.6
Qingdao Haier
600690.CH
NR
NA
16.78
1.53
1.69
1.69
1.97
9.3
8.0
2.3
1.9
3.4
AAC Tech
FY15E
Yield
FY14E
FY15E
Source: Company, BOCOM Int’l estimates (H shares), Bloomberg consensus estimates (A shares)
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM
〈enter〉
1
10 October 2014
Transportation Weekly
Transportation
Transportation Sector
Weekly transportation news wrap
BDI moved below 1,000 due to continual weak demand for dry bulk commodities.
th
As of 8 October 2014, the Baltic Dry Index lost 6.1% WoW to 991, as the Baltic
Capesize Index and Baltic Supramax Index declined 11.9% WoW and 5.0% WoW,
th
respectively. The Baltic Panamax Index broke rank to inch up 1.8% WoW as at 8
October 2014. In August, import volume of iron ore, according to National Bureau of
Statistics, increased 8.5% YoY and that of thermal coal dropped 27.3% YoY.
th
th
Compared with 30 Sept 2014, the Voyage Charter Index dropped 2.8% as at 8
October 2014. For the same period, the Time Charter Index declined 4.4% WoW.
We may begin to see an acceleration of anchored container vessels, as compared with
th
th
30 Sept 2014, the number of anchored container vessels increased 14% as at 9
October 2014.
1-Year Sector Performance
International aviation market continued to recover. The volume of air passengers
travelling on the member airlines of IATA increased 5.9% YoY in August, a slight pick-up
from 5.4% YoY increase in July. International passenger volume increased 6.7% YoY in
August, better than the 4.5% YoY increase for domestic flights. IATA reiterated its
positive view on the passenger volume growth for the full year, despite the concern of
fast capacity expansion. Air freight volume of the member airlines of IATA increased
5.1% YoY in August, following a 6.1% YoY rise in July. Indeed, the air freight volume in
August increased MoM due to the continual strength of world trade volume. IATA
maintained that the growth trend in air freight volume remains positive, despite
uncertainties such as political (Russia-Ukraine crisis) and economic risks.
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 29779381
Slow growth in passenger volume during National Day holiday. According to media
reports from Xinhua News Agency, the number of aviation passengers during the first
seven days of October increased by 5.7% YoY to 8.2m. The number of flights
increased 13.1% YoY during the same period and the daily average of passengers broke
above 1.25m. Load factor for flights using airports of popular tourist sites, such as
Lhasa (Tibet) and Haikou (Hainan Island) was well above 85%. In the case of railway,
the number of passengers reached 9.45m on the sixth day of the holiday, up 9.1% YoY.
On the last day of the holiday, the number of passengers was estimated by the China
Railway Corporation to be about 10.3m at the moment. For the whole holiday period,
the China Railway Corporation projects a total number of 68m passengers transported
by the railway system, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
The State Council detailed the Medium-to-Long Term Plan for the development of
the logistics industry between 2014 and 2020. In fact, we found most of the details
in the plan are not much different from what we have described in our Transportation
th
Weekly dated 26 September 2014. However, there are some other concrete details
in respect of the sub-segments of the logistics industry that the Chinese government
encourages, viz. agricultural produce, manufacturing supply chain, natural resources
logistics, city centre-rural area consumer products logistics, and e-fulfillment logistics.
Similar to what we have lamented before, there is still a lack of strong incentives or
policies to achieve the laid-out objectives. While share prices of some of the counters
with strong logistics theme rallied, we are cautious if the momentum could sustain for
a long while.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Source: Bloomberg
Ian Feng
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
[email protected]
Tel: (852)2977 9380
Morning Express
10 October 2014
Market Review
Hong Kong stocks rose on Thursday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 271 points, or 1.2%,
to 23,534. Telecoms led gains. China Mobile (941.HK) gained 3.3% and Unicom (762.HK)
added 2.6%. Mainland developers rallied on rumors that Beijing may relax home
purchase restriction. CR Land (1109.HK) rose 3.1%. COLI (688.HK) added 1.9%. Auto
makers advanced. Great Wall Motor (2333.HK) rose 4.4% after announcing positive Sept
operational data. Guangzhou Auto (2238.HK) rose 2.1%.
US stocks slumped on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 40.68 points, or 2.1%, to 1,928.21. The
DJIA lost 334.97 points, or 2%, to 16,659.25, its worst one-day point plummet in more
than a year. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4% to end at 326.67.
News Reaction
CIRC liberalizes non-standardized investment restrictions on investment-linked
insurance products. According to media reports, the China Insurance Regulatory
Commission (CIRC) recently issued relevant documents to solicit industry views. It clearly
emphasized that the investment products of investment-linked insurance may include
the non-standardized debt assets without public trading market but having stable
earnings expectations.
China’s GDP exceeds US on PPP adjustment, IMF says. International Monetary Fund
(IMF) released the World Economic Outlook Report, stating that in terms of PPP
(Purchasing Power Parity), China gross domestic product (GDP) reached US$17.6tn this
year, exceeding US$17.4tn of the US, and became the world’s largest economy.
Global PC shipments show a less-than-expected 1.7% decline in Jul-Sept period.
According to the report from the market researcher IDC, global PC shipments fell 1.7%
YoY in the Jul-Sept period. This marked a decline for 10 consecutive quarters, but the
decline was less than IDC’s estimate of 4.1%. The last quarter was the quarter with the
least decline since early 2012.
China resumes coal import tariffs from 15 Oct. The Ministry of Finance said on Thursday
that it will remove the provisional zero import tax rate on anthracite, coking coal and
other bituminous coal and resume the introduction of MFN rate of 3%-6% from 15 Oct
2014 onwards.
ZTE (763.HK) gets 3 licenses for third-party payment services. ZTE announced that its
subsidiary, Shenzhen Xun Chi pay Network Ltd, has obtained the permission for carrying
out mobile payment, internet payment and digital TV payment business. It becomes the
first third-payment institution in Mainland China to obtain three operating licenses all at
once.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Morning Express
10 October 2014
Economic releases for this week - USA
Date Time
-
Event
-
Economic releases for this week - China
Survey
-
Source: Bloomberg
Prior
-
Date Time
-
Event
-
Survey
-
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Research Latest Reports
Data
09 Oct 2014
09 Oct 2014
08 Oct 2014
07 Oct 2014
07 Oct 2014
06 Oct 2014
06 Oct 2014
06 Oct 2014
30 Sep 2014
30 Sep 2014
30 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
29 Sep 2014
25 Sep 2014
24 Sep 2014
23 Sep 2014
22 Sep 2014
Report
SH-HK Stock Connect - Internet - A-share Internet stocks to gradually become more reasonably valued
Intime (1833.HK) - 3Q14 SSS largely in-line; Maintain Buy
SH-HK Stock Connect - Property - Going for the sector leaders
Consumer Discretionary Sector - Protests' impact on HK retailers
SH-HK Stock Connect - Transportation & Logistics - E-commerce logistics in the spotlight
Strategy – Hong Kong Chasm
SH-HK Stock Connect - China Steel - More eligible stocks to trade in sector; industry leaders to benefit
China Property Sector - Mortgage easing and sales recovery produce short-term catalysts
Container Shipping Sector - Weekly container shipping commentary
SH-HK Stock Connect - China Consumer Staples - Dive for scarcity value
SH-HK Stock Connect - A-share mindset to lift H-share valuation
China Market Strategy - Two Diverging Trades
Intime (1833.HK) - Acquired properties in Ningbo to expand its shopping mall operation; Reiterate Buy
SH-HK Stock Connect - Brokerage - A good opportunity to buy the undervalued but high-quality brokers
China Property Sector -Financing concerns on highly-geared and aggressive developers
SH-HK Stock Connect - Insurance - SH-HK Stock Connect to spur the re-rating of A-share insurers
Transportation Sector - Weekly transportation news wrap
Energy Sector – Bocom Energy Weekly
Container Shipping Sector - Weekly container shipping commentary
China Market Strategy - Consolidation or Correction - Long Yield Still Holds the Key
Source: Company data, BOCOM International
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Analyst
Yuan MA, PhD, Connie GU, CPA
Anita Chu
Alfred Lau CFA, FRM, Toni Ho CFA, FRM
Phoebe Wong
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA, Yinan Feng
Hao Hong, CFA
Jovi Li
Toni Ho, CFA, FRM, Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Geoffrey Cheng
Summer Wang, Shawn Wu
Healthcare - Johnsun Sun, Milo Liu
Hao Hong, CFA
Anita Chu
Jerry Li
Toni Ho, CFA, FRM, Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Jerry Li
Ian Feng, Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Hao Hong, CFA
Prior
-
Morning Express
10 October 2014
Hang Seng Index Constituents
Company
name
Cheung Kong
Hang Lung Proper
Hengan Intl
China Shenhua-H
Hang Seng Bk
China Res Land
Cosco Pac Ltd
Henderson Land D
Aia Group Ltd
Hutchison Whampo
Kunlun Energy Co
Ind & Comm Bk-H
China Merchant
Want Want China
Sun Hung Kai Pro
New World Dev
Belle Internatio
China Coal Ene-H
Swire Pacific-A
Sands China Ltd
Clp Hldgs Ltd
Bank East Asia
Ping An Insura-H
Boc Hong Kong Ho
China Life Ins-H
Citic Pacific
China Res Enterp
Cathay Pac Air
Hong Kg China Gs
Tingyi Hldg Co
Esprit Hldgs
Bank Of Commun-H
China Petroleu-H
Hong Kong Exchng
Bank Of China-H
Wharf Hldg
Li & Fung Ltd
Hsbc Hldgs Plc
Power Assets Hol
Mtr Corp
China Overseas
Tencent Holdings
China Unicom Hon
Sino Land Co
China Res Power
Petrochina Co-H
Cnooc Ltd
China Const Ba-H
China Mobile
Lenovo Group Ltd
Hang Seng Index
BBG
code
1 HK
101 HK
1044 HK
1088 HK
11 HK
1109 HK
1199 HK
12 HK
1299 HK
13 HK
135 HK
1398 HK
144 HK
151 HK
16 HK
17 HK
1880 HK
1898 HK
19 HK
1928 HK
2 HK
23 HK
2318 HK
2388 HK
2628 HK
267 HK
291 HK
293 HK
3 HK
322 HK
330 HK
3328 HK
386 HK
388 HK
3988 HK
4 HK
494 HK
5 HK
6 HK
66 HK
688 HK
700 HK
762 HK
83 HK
836 HK
857 HK
883 HK
939 HK
941 HK
992 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
132.40
23.20
77.95
21.55
128.40
17.54
10.48
51.55
42.35
98.45
11.06
4.97
23.70
9.97
113.30
9.34
9.15
4.69
100.20
42.65
64.50
31.55
59.90
24.80
21.90
13.58
18.98
14.60
17.56
20.60
10.82
5.53
6.78
173.80
3.53
56.25
9.01
79.80
70.80
30.95
21.30
117.90
11.70
12.46
21.60
9.93
13.46
5.58
94.95
11.88
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
306,660
104,058
95,629
395,683
245,481
102,280
30,798
154,647
510,109
419,729
89,281
1,610,610
60,365
131,564
309,174
80,931
77,173
74,160
148,067
344,014
162,956
74,043
441,280
262,205
576,706
338,187
45,811
57,434
184,655
115,421
21,020
406,716
786,401
203,002
964,616
170,445
75,327
1,528,366
151,106
180,128
174,106
1,103,999
279,773
74,955
103,608
1,816,083
600,955
1,391,186
1,935,035
125,804
5d
chg
(%)
3.5
5.0
2.1
-0.5
3.0
9.6
1.7
2.5
5.5
4.7
-1.3
2.7
-1.3
3.0
2.9
3.3
4.8
3.3
0.2
5.3
3.4
0.3
2.7
0.2
1.6
4.8
3.3
2.1
4.3
1.0
7.8
2.2
-0.3
4.0
1.4
1.9
2.2
0.3
3.1
1.8
6.6
2.1
0.9
3.8
3.1
-0.2
1.1
2.6
5.8
2.8
Ytd
chg
(%)
14.1
-5.3
-14.9
-11.9
2.1
-8.7
-1.5
28.1
8.9
-0.1
-19.0
-5.2
-16.3
-11.0
15.2
1.3
2.0
7.6
10.2
-31.8
5.2
-4.0
-13.8
-0.2
-9.7
14.5
-26.3
-11.0
8.6
-8.0
-27.6
1.1
7.1
34.4
-1.1
-5.1
9.8
-5.2
14.8
5.5
-2.3
19.2
0.9
17.5
17.5
16.8
-6.7
-4.6
18.1
26.0
23,534.5 14,436,860
2.6
1.0
Source: Bloomberg
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
152.00
105.95
27.00
19.80
99.70
74.05
27.00
19.12
133.00
117.60
23.50
13.62
12.00
9.40
56.40
36.46
44.20
34.65
108.50
86.88
14.82
10.90
5.66
4.33
30.00
22.75
13.10
9.32
120.20
90.35
10.77
7.15
11.82
7.25
5.26
3.72
108.00
80.55
68.00
38.70
67.80
56.00
35.00
28.50
76.50
55.60
26.65
21.50
25.80
19.52
16.88
9.35
27.90
18.14
17.26
13.92
18.40
13.91
24.00
19.36
17.42
9.98
5.98
4.53
8.23
5.73
185.00
112.80
3.79
3.03
70.20
46.35
10.70
7.72
87.35
75.75
75.85
57.85
32.30
26.55
24.80
17.52
134.00
77.56
14.22
9.03
14.16
9.83
24.90
17.10
11.70
7.31
16.12
11.42
6.37
4.89
102.20
63.65
12.70
7.62
25,363.0
21,137.6
–––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2013A
2014E
2015E
(X)
(X)
(X)
7.1
8.6
8.9
13.6
17.6
16.6
26.4
25.1
20.8
7.9
8.4
8.3
14.7
14.2
13.2
6.7
8.9
7.6
13.5
11.4
10.7
8.6
16.2
16.4
26.7
20.8
18.0
8.9
12.4
11.5
14.1
13.4
12.0
5.1
5.0
4.7
13.7
14.2
12.9
24.3
23.8
20.7
9.1
14.8
13.8
7.0
10.8
10.4
13.6
13.8
13.2
35.6
30.9
22.1
11.5
14.3
13.4
16.8
15.7
13.5
18.1
15.4
15.1
10.6
11.4
10.7
11.9
10.6
9.2
11.4
10.7
9.7
18.2
15.0
12.7
9.6
10.2
8.0
25.0
33.4
26.3
19.5
17.2
11.7
26.6
24.6
22.7
23.6
29.2
23.9
98.4
32.6
21.6
5.0
5.0
4.7
9.3
8.9
8.4
43.9
38.7
29.7
4.7
4.7
4.4
7.2
14.3
12.6
11.6
17.6
15.3
13.1
11.3
10.3
2.4
17.4
17.5
12.1
17.4
16.0
7.0
7.5
6.6
42.7
36.1
27.1
18.6
17.2
14.6
8.3
14.0
13.8
8.9
8.4
7.7
10.9
10.4
9.8
8.6
8.3
7.8
4.9
4.8
4.5
13.0
13.6
13.7
18.5
18.2
15.0
10.3
10.8
10.0
Yield
P/B
(%)
2.7
3.2
2.4
5.3
4.3
2.6
2.9
2.0
1.1
2.4
2.1
N/A
3.2
2.7
3.0
4.4
1.1
2.2
3.6
4.1
4.0
3.5
1.5
4.1
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.9
1.4
0.6
N/A
4.5
2.0
7.0
3.1
5.3
4.8
3.6
3.0
2.3
0.2
1.7
4.0
3.5
4.1
4.2
N/A
3.3
2.0
(X)
0.8
0.8
5.8
1.2
2.2
1.2
0.9
0.6
2.3
1.0
1.8
1.0
0.9
9.0
0.7
0.5
2.4
0.6
0.7
8.5
1.8
1.1
1.8
1.6
2.0
0.6
0.9
0.9
3.6
5.2
1.2
0.7
1.1
9.1
0.8
0.6
2.0
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.5
12.4
1.0
0.7
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.0
1.8
4.9
3.6
1.4
Morning Express
10 October 2014
China Ent Index Constituents
Company
name
Shandong Weig-H
China Shenhua-H
Sinopharm-H
China Shipping-H
Zoomlion Heavy-H
Yanzhou Coal-H
Agricultural-H
New China Life-H
Ind & Comm Bk-H
Tsingtao Brew-H
China Com Cons-H
China Coal Ene-H
China Minsheng-H
Guangzhou Auto-H
Ping An Insura-H
Picc Property &
Great Wall Mot-H
Weichai Power-H
Aluminum Corp-H
China Pacific-H
China Life Ins-H
China Oilfield-H
Zijin Mining-H
China Natl Bdg-H
Bank Of Commun-H
Jiangxi Copper-H
China Petroleu-H
China Rail Gr-H
China Merch Bk-H
Bank Of China-H
Dongfeng Motor-H
Citic Securiti-H
Haitong Securi-H
China Telecom-H
Air China Ltd-H
Petrochina Co-H
Huaneng Power-H
Anhui Conch-H
China Longyuan-H
China Const Ba-H
China Citic Bk-H
Hang Seng China Ent Indx
BBG
code
1066 HK
1088 HK
1099 HK
1138 HK
1157 HK
1171 HK
1288 HK
1336 HK
1398 HK
168 HK
1800 HK
1898 HK
1988 HK
2238 HK
2318 HK
2328 HK
2333 HK
2338 HK
2600 HK
2601 HK
2628 HK
2883 HK
2899 HK
3323 HK
3328 HK
358 HK
386 HK
390 HK
3968 HK
3988 HK
489 HK
6030 HK
6837 HK
728 HK
753 HK
857 HK
902 HK
914 HK
916 HK
939 HK
998 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
5d
chg
(%)
Ytd
chg
(%)
7.51
21.55
27.60
4.90
4.52
6.36
3.51
27.45
4.97
56.80
5.63
4.69
7.39
7.70
59.90
14.74
31.70
28.60
3.34
27.90
21.90
20.05
1.95
7.15
5.53
13.00
6.78
4.23
13.60
3.53
12.82
18.80
12.50
4.70
5.00
9.93
8.77
25.35
7.58
5.58
4.86
33,617.55
395,683.34
70,884.90
21,107.06
45,699.52
45,720.03
1,034,522.56
93,311.01
1,610,609.79
72,286.61
96,584.12
74,160.21
271,470.60
62,135.45
441,280.38
200,524.98
114,909.29
53,159.78
60,943.70
233,052.25
576,705.69
108,397.73
62,193.09
38,603.04
406,715.96
54,648.16
786,400.98
85,936.00
335,252.97
964,615.78
110,458.66
188,873.72
124,139.24
380,382.16
65,630.11
1,816,082.64
113,833.47
121,323.96
60,915.83
1,391,186.18
256,448.39
-2.2
-0.5
-2.8
0.6
-0.2
-0.2
2.0
1.5
2.7
2.7
0.5
3.3
4.1
2.5
2.7
7.1
5.1
2.0
5.7
2.2
1.6
-2.2
3.2
1.6
2.2
1.7
-0.3
2.7
2.4
1.4
0.5
5.0
4.3
-1.3
1.8
-0.2
3.4
2.2
-0.1
2.6
3.2
-28.2
-11.9
24.0
-18.6
-37.6
-10.2
-7.9
5.6
-5.2
-13.3
-9.9
7.6
3.0
-9.2
-13.8
28.2
-25.9
-8.5
23.7
-8.2
-9.7
-16.6
17.5
-14.3
1.1
-7.1
7.1
5.8
-17.7
-1.1
5.6
-11.1
-7.4
19.9
-13.6
16.8
25.1
-11.8
-24.1
-4.6
15.4
11.2
27.0
30.0
6.3
8.0
8.7
4.1
29.6
5.7
68.3
6.7
5.3
8.2
10.9
76.5
15.0
51.9
35.5
3.9
33.5
25.8
26.0
2.2
9.1
6.0
15.4
8.2
4.7
17.6
3.8
15.2
21.7
14.5
5.2
6.3
11.7
9.7
35.7
10.3
6.4
5.3
6.8
19.1
19.7
4.0
4.4
4.9
3.0
20.6
4.3
53.5
4.9
3.7
5.9
6.7
55.6
9.8
26.1
25.8
2.5
23.6
19.5
17.2
1.6
6.7
4.5
11.6
5.7
3.0
12.1
3.0
9.6
13.7
9.5
3.1
4.2
7.3
6.1
24.2
7.3
4.9
3.6
61.6
7.9
21.8
N/A
14.9
6.7
5.1
11.3
5.1
30.6
5.6
35.6
4.4
12.4
11.9
14.8
9.4
8.6
N/A
18.7
18.2
9.2
15.7
4.9
5.0
10.0
9.3
7.2
4.7
4.7
6.5
22.5
22.4
16.1
18.5
10.9
8.5
8.7
24.7
4.9
4.4
25.0
8.4
19.8
41.6
11.0
19.7
4.9
11.0
5.0
29.6
5.4
30.9
4.1
9.6
10.6
12.9
8.7
9.5
N/A
17.2
15.0
9.2
15.1
5.1
5.0
13.3
8.9
6.8
4.7
4.7
6.6
22.2
18.2
16.0
15.3
10.4
7.9
8.9
16.7
4.8
4.3
10,484
4,195,801
1.7
-3.1
11,638.3
9,159.8
7.3
7.1
Source: Bloomberg
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–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
––––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2013A
2014E
2015E
(X)
(X)
(X)
Yield
P/B
(%)
(X)
20.6
8.3
16.5
14.9
9.8
16.1
4.5
9.6
4.7
25.5
5.0
22.1
3.9
7.4
9.2
11.5
7.0
9.3
N/A
14.7
12.7
8.5
14.7
4.6
4.7
13.0
8.4
6.2
4.2
4.4
6.2
19.1
15.4
14.7
12.0
9.8
7.9
8.1
13.3
4.5
3.9
1.0
5.3
1.2
0.0
4.2
0.4
N/A
0.7
N/A
N/A
4.2
2.2
2.7
3.0
1.5
1.9
3.3
1.1
N/A
1.8
1.7
2.7
N/A
2.8
N/A
4.9
4.5
2.0
5.8
7.0
1.8
N/A
1.2
2.6
1.1
4.1
5.5
1.7
0.8
N/A
N/A
2.8
1.2
2.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
1.0
1.6
1.0
4.1
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.8
2.5
2.6
1.4
0.9
1.9
2.0
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.8
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.8
6.5
4.5
1.1
Morning Express
10 October 2014
BOCOM International
11/F, Man Yee Building, 68 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong
Main: + 852 3710 3328
Fax: + 852 3798 0133
Rating System
Company Rating
www.bocomgroup.com
Sector Rating
Buy: Expect more than 20% upside in 12 months
LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months
Neutral: Expect low volatility
Sell: Expect more than 20% downside in 12 months
Outperform (“OP”): Expect more than 10% upside in 12 months
Market perform (“MP”): Expect low volatility
Underperform (“UP”): Expect more than 10% downside in 12 months
Research Team
Head of Research
@bocomgroup.com
(852) 2977 9393
raymond.cheng
(852) 2977 9384
hao.hong
(852) 2977 9212
yangqingli
Shanshan LI, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8058
lishanshan
Li WAN, CFA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8051
Wanli
Raymond CHENG, CFA, CPA, CA
Strategy
Economics
Hao HONG, CFA
Banks
Consumer Discretionary
miaoxian.li
Fei WU
(852) 2977 9392
fei.wu
Tony LIU
(852) 2977 9390
xutong.liu
Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9235
alfred.lau
Toni HO, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9220
toni.ho
Luella GUO
(852) 2977 9211
luella.guo
(86) 21 6065 3606
louis.sun
(852) 2977 9209
lizhiwu
(852) 2977 9216
miles.xie
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA
(852) 2977 9380
geoffrey.cheng
Ian FENG
(852) 2977 9381
Yinan.feng
(86) 21 6065 3675
wei.yao
Property
Phoebe WONG
(852) 2977 9391
phoebe.wong
Anita CHU
(852) 2977 9205
anita.chu
Consumer Staples
Renewable Energy
Summer WANG
(852) 2977 9221
summer.wang
Shawn WU
(852) 2977 9386
shawn.wu
Johnson SUN
(852) 2977 9203
johnson.sun
Milo LIU
(852) 2977 9387
milo.liu
(852) 2977 9389
liwenbing
Healthcare
Louis SUN
Telecom & Small/ Mid-Caps
Insurance
Zhiwu LI
Technology
Internet
Miles XIE
Transportation & Industrial
Yuan MA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039
yuan.ma
Connie GU, CPA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045
conniegu
(852) 2977 9243
jovi.li
Metals & Mining
Jovi LI
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8043
Miaoxian LI
Oil & Gas/ Gas Utilities
Qingli YANG
Jerry LI
@bocomgroup.com
Automobile
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Wei YAO
Morning Express
10 October 2014
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