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Morning Express
06 February 2015
Focus of the Day
Indices
Geely Auto (175.HK)
Neutral
Upgrade to Buy on more visible growth outlook
Wei YAO
Last Closing: HK$3.35
[email protected]
Upside: +26.6%
LT
BUY
BUY
SELL
Stock
Target Price: HK$4.24↑
1. Car sales in Jan continued to rebound MoM, representing significant growth YoY. The
increase was partly attributable to a lower base as the sales base for the first three
quarters decreased upon the reform of channels in 2014. On the other hand, the sales
volume had gradually restored to a normal level and the number of new products
gradually increased. By regions, there was stronger growth in domestic sales but there
was still no significant improvement in exports. 2. Geely Auto’s car models were more
focused. 3. There was significant YoY growth in product structure and capacity utilization
rate. 4. The company looks set to maintain high growth in FY15/16. 5. It is expected that
the influence of the ruble exchange rate will decrease. 6. We upgrade our rating to Buy.
In general, the sales volume of new cars in Jan continued to hit record high over the past
12 months and sales continued to edge up. On the basis of the sales volume in Jan, along
with a clearer new product plan of the company for FY16, we increase our assumptions of
sales volume for FY15/16 to 548,000 cars/649,000 cars. We lift our 2015/16E EPS
forecasts by 0.5%/7.1%. Our latest 2014/15/16 EPS forecasts are RMB0.15/0.28/0.34. We
upgrade the stock from Neutral to Buy and raise TP from HK$3.17 to HK$4.24,
corresponding to 12x 15E P/E, given our confidence in its growth outlook in the next two
years in view of a more visible product pipeline in 2016, and reduced exchange rate
uncertainty.
Close
HSI
24,765
H Shares
11,789
SH A
3,286
SH B
291
SZ A
1,595
SZ B
1,082
DJIA
17,885
S&P 500
2,063
Nasdaq
4,765
FTSE
6,866
CAC
4,703
DAX
10,905
Source: Bloomberg
1d %
0.35
0.18
-1.19
0.11
-0.19
-0.14
1.20
1.03
1.03
0.09
0.15
-0.05
Ytd %
4.92
-1.63
-3.05
0.02
7.86
5.15
0.35
0.18
0.61
4.57
10.08
11.22
Close
56.57
1,264.75
17.24
5,720.00
117.47
1.53
1.15
3m %
-31.80
10.76
11.84
-13.83
-1.92
-3.22
-7.34
Ytd %
-1.33
6.74
9.80
-9.21
1.97
-1.64
-5.22
bps change
HIBOR
0.39
US 10 yield
1.82
Source: Bloomberg
3m
0.01
-0.57
6m
0.01
-0.66
Indicators
Brent
Gold
Silver
Copper
JPY
GBP
EURO
HSI Technical
HSI
50 d MA
200 d MA
14 d RSI
Short Sell (HK$m)
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Int'l Corporate Access
9 Feb
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
"One Belt, One Road" Seminar
24,765
23,879
23,673
61
9,879
Morning Express
06 February 2015
Hang Seng Index (1 year)
26,000
Great Wall Motor (2333.HK)
25,000
Neutral
LT
BUY
24,000
23,000
Jan sales were robust
BUY
SELL
22,000
21,000
Wei YAO
Last Closing: HK$44.45
[email protected]
Upside: +30.4%
Stock
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Target Price: HK$58.00↑
(1) Great Wall Motor sold 88,087 cars in Jan, up 14.2% MoM and 26.5% YoY. The
company achieved MoM and YoY sales growth in Jan. Sales in Jan continued to hit record
high, mainly due to the increasing sales volume of new SUV products. (2) Key SUV models
continued to report robust sales. (3) Sedan sales improved slightly MoM. (4) Capacity
utilization rate recovered significantly in Jan. (5) There will be a number of new models
ahead. (6) Maintain Buy and lift TP to HK$58. Based on the sales in Jan, we revise our
sales assumptions and earnings estimates. We expect FY15/16E sales to reach
956,000/1.069m and FY14/15/16E EPS to reach RMB2.65/3.84/4.46, up 4.5%/4.2% for
FY15/16E. Overall, we believe the company’s products are currently in shortage. Given
the expected launch of its benchmark H8 model and the possible stronger-than-expected
sales of several products to be launched ahead, we maintain our Buy rating and lift TP to
HK$58, equivalent to FY15E 12x PE. The catalysts will mainly come from the
stronger-than-expected sales of new products, 1Q15 results and the re-launch of H8. The
risks will lie with weaker-than-expected sales and the indefinite delay in H8 launch.
HS China Enterprise Index (1 year)
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Shanghai A-shares (1 year)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Transportation Sector
Weekly transportation news wrap
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA
[email protected]
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Weekly
Shenzhen A-shares (1 year)
Global dry bulk market: The Baltic Dry Bulk Index slumped and reached a historical
low as demand remained weak.
Logistics: In January, China LPI maintained steady growth on a yearly basis, but
trended down slightly on a MoM basis as the Chinese New Year is approaching.
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Railway: NDRC raised the railway freight rate benchmark, favoring railway operators.
Source: Company data, Bloomberg
Aviation: Effective from 5th Feb, Chinese airlines will cancel the fuel surcharge for
domestic routes, the first time since 2009
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
06 February 2015
Transportation Weekly
Transportation
Transportation Sector
Weekly transportation news wrap
The Baltic Dry Bulk Index slumped further and reached a new low in 28 years. As of
4th February 2015, BDI slumped by 14.6% WoW, or 47.5% YoY, staying below 600,
and China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index (CDFI) was down 10.9% WoW. The weak
global and domestic economic growth, increasing capacity, and declining fuel costs
were responsible for the big slump of BDI, in our view. The downward trend of BDI
was also largely a result of seasonality. Demand for dry bulk commodities remained
weak as the Chinese New Year is around the corner. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)
fell by 29.5% WoW with freight rates of Panamax vessels in the domestic market
down 20.5% WoW. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) dropped to 669, falling by 14.8%
WoW, or 55.8% YoY, while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) plunged by 11.8% WoW,
or 43.3% YoY, to 545. It is unlikely for BDI to rebound in the near term, in our view.
In January, China LPI maintained steady growth on a yearly basis. In January, China
LPI reached 56.3%, up 1.1 ppts YoY, according to China Federation of Logistics &
Purchasing. Other indexes, including New Orders, Equipment Utilization Rate, and
Employees stayed in the expansionary zone and recorded steady growth on a yearly
basis. However, all the indices tumbled in January on a monthly basis, indicating weak
logistics activities approaching the Chinese New Year. The Total Business Volume index
fell from 57.5% in December 2014 to 56.3% in January 2015, largely as a result of
seasonality. The New Orders index dropped from 53.7% in the previous month to
53.2%, but was 1.4 ppts higher than that of the same period last year. The Inventory
Turnover index amounted to 49.0%, representing a decrease of 3.3 ppts on a YoY basis.
In any case, the China LPI in January was better than the PMI, underlining the
robustness of the logistics industry in the current development stage. China LPI may
trend down further in February due to weak logistics activities during the Chinese New
Year, in our view.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised railway freight
rate benchmark for further price reform. According to the notice released by NDRC, it
raised the new benchmark freight rate from RMB0.1451 to RMB0.1551 per ton for
each kilometer starting from 1st February. NDRC believes the new freight rate
benchmark will allow pricing flexibility and attract investment in the railway sector.
Domestic airlines eliminate fuel surcharge from 5th February 2015. According to
news reports, effective from 5th February, Chinese airlines will cancel fuel surcharge
for domestic routes for the first time since November 2009. In February, Chinese
airlines announced to cancel the surcharge as fuel cost reached RMB3,782/ton, which
is lower than the RMB4,140/ton threshold of surcharge. Accordingly, passengers only
need to pay for the flight ticket and RMB50 airport construction fee without fuel
surcharge, compared with the RMB120 fuel surcharge for domestic routes with a flight
range more than 800 kilometers, and RMB60 fuel surcharge for those with a flight
range less than 800 kilometers in the past. Fuel surcharge has been cut for five months
since September 2014, as a result of the declining fuel prices. Although fuel prices may
reverse their downward trend in the near future, we expect the average fuel price to
be lower in 2015 YoY.
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1-Year Sector Performance
30%
Sector performance
HSI Index performance
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Feb-14
May-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
[email protected]
Tel: (852)2977 9380
Fay Zhou
[email protected]
Tel: (852) 2977 9381
Jan-15
Morning Express
06 February 2015
Market Review
Hong Kong stocks started the Thursday session on an upbeat note after the PBoC cut the
RRR by 50bps. The Hang Seng Index opened as much as 368 points higher, but lost much
of the gains to close up 85 points, or 0.3%, at 24,765. China developers led blue-chip
advances. CR Land (1109.HK) was the best HSI performer, up 3.4%. COLI (688.HK) rose 1%.
Vanke (2202.HK) increased 0.6%. Telecom operators rose. China Mobile (941.HK)
increased 2.6%. Unicom (762.HK) gained 3.4%. Power producers fell following media
reports that China will soon lower on-grid tariffs. CR Power (836.HK) slumped 6.3% as the
worst blue-chip performer. Huadian (1071.HK) and Huaneng (902.HK) plunged 10.5% and
10.2%, respectively. Renewed crude price weakness weighed on oil companies. CNOOC
(883.HK) dropped 2.2%. PetroChina (857.HK) lost 2.3%.
US stocks posted strong gains. The S&P 500 rose 21 points, or 1%, to 2,062.50. The DJIA
climbed 212 points, or 1.2%, to 17,885. European stocks spent most of the session lower,
but finished with modest gains, lifted by a rally in oil prices. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged
up 0.1% to 372.51.
News Reaction
HK to waive stamp duty for ETFs with effect from next Friday, HKEx (388.HK) says. HKEx
announced today that a stamp duty waiver for all Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on
the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will take effect next Friday (13 Feb) following the passage
of the Stamp Duty (Amendment) Bill 2014 in the Legislative Council. This will facilitate
further increase of ETF trading in Hong Kong.
China to promote railway equipment exports through multiple measures. China’s
railway equipment exports will enjoy rare opportunities ahead as the global railway
market capacity may reach EUR190bn by 2018, the Ministry of Commerce said on
Thursday. China will support the overseas expansion of the Chinese railway enterprises
through the acceleration of construction projects with international standards,
strengthening of overseas marketing network construction and widening of foreign
exchange channels.
China to rein in luxury car prices through pilot parallel import scheme. China is taking
aim again at foreign luxury car makers such as Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz by
allowing unauthorized dealers to sell imported cars - so-called “parallel imports” - in a
move to rein in high-end car prices.
HK private home prices hit record high last Dec and surge over 13% in 2014. According
to the provisional figures released by the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD) on
Thursday, the private home prices in Hong Kong rose 1.3% MoM in Dec 2014, marking a
price hike for nine consecutive months and hitting a record high. Home prices surged a
total of 13.3% in 2014, extending the rising trend for 6 years. Statistics showed that small
and medium-sized residential homes continued to lead the uptrend, but the price hike of
large-sized luxury units slowed slightly compared to the previous month.
Vanke Jan sales down 16% YoY to RMB23.2bn; 7 projects added. Vanke, one of the
biggest real estate developers in China, announced its Jan sales on Thursday. Sales
amounted to RMB23.21bn in Jan, down 16.1% YoY; sales area reached 1.96m sq m, up
slightly by 0.7% YoY.
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Morning Express
06 February 2015
Economic releases for this week - USA
Date Time
5-Feb
5-Feb
6-Feb
6-Feb
6-Feb
Source: Bloomberg
Event
Initial jobless claims (k)
Trade balance (US$ bn)
Change in Non-farm payrolls(k)
Change in Private payrolls(k)
Unemployment rate
Economic releases for this week - China
Survey
-38.0
231.0
220.0
5.6%
Prior
265.0
-39.0
252.0
240.0
5.6%
Date Time
1-Feb
4-Feb
Event
Manufacturing PMI
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Survey
50.2
49.8
Prior
50.1
49.8
Source: Bloomberg
BOCOM Research Latest Reports
Data
05 Feb 201 5
05 Feb 201 5
05 Feb 201 5
05 Feb 201 5
05 Feb 201 5
04 Feb 201 5
04 Feb 201 5
03 Feb 201 5
03 Feb 201 5
03 Feb 201 5
02 Feb 201 5
02 Feb 201 5
02 Feb 201 5
30 Jan 201 5
30 Jan 201 5
30 Jan 201 5
29 Jan 201 5
29 Jan 201 5
29 Jan 201 5
28 Jan 201 5
Report
COSL (2883.HK) – Resisting the storm – Maintain BUY
Lijun Int'l (2005.HK) - Fine-tuning forecasts for business changes
Guangshen Railway (525.HK) - Weak 4Q14 operating performance not a boon for 2015
China Market Strategy - RRR Cut, RMB & the Imbalance of Payment
China Property Sector - Inventory fear fading ou
CNOOC (883.HK) - Uncertain times ahead - Reiterate SELL
Lenovo Group (992.HK) - A set of shining quarterly results
Container Shipping Sector - Weekly container shipping commentary
HK Property Sector – How long can high rent sustain?
HK Consumer - Disappointing Dec HK retail sales; a challenging year for 2015E
Property Sector – HK/China Property Weekly 20150130
Vinda (3331 HK) - Winner in premium segment; BUY reiterated
HKEx (388.HK) - Lower TP to HK$195.3
Alibaba Group (BABA.US) - MIT--Martina Internet Talk: SAIC event has greater social impact than real
impact; Stock price may fluctuate in the short term
Transportation Sector - Weekly transportation news wrap
Alibaba Group (BABA.US) - Solid 4Q14 Non-GAAP results; cautious on lower monetization rate
The Link REIT (823.HK) - A pricy ticket to a greenfield project
New World Development (17.HK) - Securing urban landbank at a low cost
China Market Strategy - Margin of Danger
Energy Sector - Bocom Energy Weekly
Source: Company data, BOCOM International
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
Analyst
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Milo Liu
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Hao Hong, CFA
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM, Luella Guo
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Miles XIE
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Phoebe Wong
Luella Guo, Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Summer Wang
Wan Li, CFA, Li Shanshan, CFA
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D, Gu Xinyu (Connie), CPA
Geoffrey Cheng, CFA, Fay Zhou
Ma Yuan (Martina), Ph.D, Gu Xinyu (Connie), CPA
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Alfred Lau, CFA, FRM
Hao Hong, CFA
Fei Wu, Tony Liu
Morning Express
06 February 2015
Hang Seng Index Constituents
Company
name
Cheung Kong
Hang Lung Proper
Hengan Intl
China Shenhua-H
Hang Seng Bk
China Res Land
Cosco Pac Ltd
Henderson Land D
Aia Group Ltd
Hutchison Whampo
Kunlun Energy Co
Ind & Comm Bk-H
China Merchant
Want Want China
Sun Hung Kai Pro
New World Dev
Belle Internatio
China Coal Ene-H
Swire Pacific-A
Sands China Ltd
Clp Hldgs Ltd
Bank East Asia
Ping An Insura-H
Boc Hong Kong Ho
China Life Ins-H
Citic Pacific
China Res Enterp
Cathay Pac Air
Hong Kg China Gs
Tingyi Hldg Co
Esprit Hldgs
Bank Of Commun-H
China Petroleu-H
Hong Kong Exchng
Bank Of China-H
Wharf Hldg
Li & Fung Ltd
Hsbc Hldgs Plc
Power Assets Hol
Mtr Corp
China Overseas
Tencent Holdings
China Unicom Hon
Sino Land Co
China Res Power
Petrochina Co-H
Cnooc Ltd
China Const Ba-H
China Mobile
Lenovo Group Ltd
Hang Seng Index
BBG
code
1 HK
101 HK
1044 HK
1088 HK
11 HK
1109 HK
1199 HK
12 HK
1299 HK
13 HK
135 HK
1398 HK
144 HK
151 HK
16 HK
17 HK
1880 HK
1898 HK
19 HK
1928 HK
2 HK
23 HK
2318 HK
2388 HK
2628 HK
267 HK
291 HK
293 HK
3 HK
322 HK
330 HK
3328 HK
386 HK
388 HK
3988 HK
4 HK
494 HK
5 HK
6 HK
66 HK
688 HK
700 HK
762 HK
83 HK
836 HK
857 HK
883 HK
939 HK
941 HK
992 HK
Share
price
(HK$)
146.50
22.35
91.85
20.90
144.90
20.40
11.16
55.00
44.50
102.50
8.08
5.67
28.20
8.93
124.40
9.36
8.82
4.28
104.70
37.20
67.50
32.20
83.00
26.95
31.05
13.32
16.54
17.44
17.48
19.02
8.21
6.46
6.19
178.00
4.40
61.95
7.40
72.20
80.70
34.35
23.70
135.20
12.88
12.70
20.00
8.56
10.86
6.39
108.30
11.58
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
339,318
100,247
112,460
450,651
277,026
133,229
32,815
165,019
536,008
436,996
65,225
1,947,579
72,279
117,841
351,205
83,242
74,390
86,591
151,663
300,118
170,535
75,569
752,048
284,936
1,141,200
331,712
40,049
68,606
183,751
106,584
15,956
518,271
828,716
207,933
1,418,587
187,716
61,867
1,387,618
172,235
200,141
193,723
1,266,916
308,437
77,014
95,947
2,419,865
484,871
1,603,377
2,216,249
128,638
5d
chg
(%)
0.8
-1.8
3.4
-1.2
6.6
1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-1.3
0.6
-0.7
1.3
-1.2
-3.0
-3.0
2.6
-0.2
0.9
0.3
-5.1
-2.9
-0.2
0.1
0.9
1.0
-0.3
-4.9
-3.1
-2.2
2.6
-6.2
0.2
0.3
-0.2
1.1
-1.2
-2.8
-0.1
-1.9
-0.7
3.5
0.4
9.7
-2.9
-8.5
1.7
6.5
2.2
3.8
15.3
Ytd
chg
(%)
12.4
2.8
13.3
-8.9
12.2
-0.2
1.3
1.3
3.1
14.8
10.2
0.2
8.0
-12.6
5.2
4.9
1.1
-11.9
3.7
-2.5
0.4
3.0
4.9
3.9
2.0
0.8
1.8
3.2
-1.6
7.3
-11.5
-10.8
-1.0
3.7
0.7
10.6
1.9
-2.4
7.2
8.0
2.8
20.2
23.8
1.4
0.0
-0.5
4.0
0.3
19.7
13.5
24,765.5 15,361,180
0.7
4.9
Source: Bloomberg
Download our reports from Bloomberg: BOCM〈enter〉
–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
152.00
105.95
26.45
19.80
94.35
74.05
24.40
19.12
148.40
117.60
23.60
13.62
11.92
9.40
57.20
36.46
46.45
34.65
108.50
85.90
14.02
6.88
5.90
4.33
29.70
22.75
13.10
8.75
129.40
90.35
10.48
7.15
10.00
7.00
5.44
3.72
108.00
80.55
68.00
34.50
69.60
56.00
34.45
28.50
88.70
55.60
27.95
21.50
32.80
19.72
16.88
9.35
24.55
15.12
18.30
13.56
18.90
13.91
23.25
16.02
15.24
8.10
7.36
4.53
8.23
5.74
189.00
112.80
4.57
3.03
63.90
46.35
10.70
7.06
84.90
69.75
82.80
57.85
34.70
26.55
26.70
17.52
138.00
93.00
14.22
9.03
14.16
9.83
24.90
17.56
11.70
7.32
15.88
9.72
6.62
4.89
108.50
63.65
12.70
7.62
25,363.0
21,137.6
–––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2014A
2015E
2016E
(X)
(X)
(X)
7.9
9.5
10.1
8.6
15.5
16.1
31.1
29.9
24.7
7.8
8.6
8.6
16.6
16.6
15.0
7.8
10.6
9.0
14.3
12.7
11.2
9.2
17.6
17.2
28.1
21.5
19.3
9.3
12.1
12.7
10.3
10.5
10.9
5.8
5.8
5.5
16.3
16.7
15.2
21.8
22.6
18.9
10.0
15.9
14.8
7.0
11.3
10.3
N/A
13.2
12.7
33.2
55.7
39.7
12.0
15.4
14.0
14.6
16.4
14.6
18.9
16.1
15.8
10.8
11.7
11.6
16.8
14.0
12.9
12.3
11.6
10.6
26.4
19.9
17.1
9.4
7.6
6.2
21.8
103.4
53.9
23.3
19.8
11.6
26.4
25.0
23.2
32.9
30.7
24.8
75.1
72.0
31.9
6.0
6.0
5.7
8.5
9.5
13.6
44.3
40.4
30.1
5.9
6.0
5.6
7.9
16.0
14.2
9.5
16.2
13.8
11.7
10.7
10.1
2.7
19.6
19.2
13.5
18.9
18.6
7.7
8.5
7.4
45.9
42.3
31.8
19.7
19.1
16.9
8.5
14.5
14.0
8.2
8.0
7.3
9.6
10.6
15.9
7.0
7.5
14.6
5.7
5.6
5.3
15.1
16.1
15.6
17.7
18.7
15.2
10.5
11.5
10.3
Yield
P/B
(%)
2.4
3.4
2.0
5.4
3.8
2.2
2.7
1.8
1.0
2.3
2.8
N/A
2.7
3.0
2.7
4.4
N/A
2.3
3.4
4.6
3.8
3.4
1.0
3.7
1.2
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.5
0.9
N/A
4.8
2.0
5.5
2.8
6.4
5.3
3.2
2.7
2.1
0.2
1.5
3.9
3.8
4.6
5.2
5.8
2.9
2.1
(X)
0.9
0.8
6.8
1.2
2.5
1.4
0.9
0.6
2.5
1.0
1.3
1.1
1.1
8.0
0.8
0.5
2.3
0.5
0.7
7.4
1.9
1.1
2.6
1.7
2.9
0.6
0.8
1.1
3.6
4.5
0.9
0.8
1.0
10.1
1.0
0.7
1.7
0.9
1.4
1.3
1.6
13.7
1.1
0.7
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.1
4.0
3.5
1.4
Morning Express
06 February 2015
China Ent Index Constituents
Company
name
Shandong Weig-H
China Shenhua-H
Sinopharm-H
China Shipping-H
Zoomlion Heavy-H
Yanzhou Coal-H
Agricultural-H
New China Life-H
Ind & Comm Bk-H
Tsingtao Brew-H
China Com Cons-H
China Coal Ene-H
China Minsheng-H
Guangzhou Auto-H
Ping An Insura-H
Picc Property &
Great Wall Mot-H
Weichai Power-H
Aluminum Corp-H
China Pacific-H
China Life Ins-H
China Oilfield-H
Zijin Mining-H
China Natl Bdg-H
Bank Of Commun-H
Jiangxi Copper-H
China Petroleu-H
China Rail Gr-H
China Merch Bk-H
Bank Of China-H
Dongfeng Motor-H
Citic Securiti-H
Haitong Securi-H
China Telecom-H
Air China Ltd-H
Petrochina Co-H
Huaneng Power-H
Anhui Conch-H
China Longyuan-H
China Const Ba-H
China Citic Bk-H
Hang Seng China Ent Indx
BBG
code
Share
price
(HK$)
Mkt
cap
(HK$m)
5d
chg
(%)
Ytd
chg
(%)
(X)
(X)
1066 HK
1088 HK
1099 HK
1138 HK
1157 HK
1171 HK
1288 HK
1336 HK
1398 HK
168 HK
1800 HK
1898 HK
1988 HK
2238 HK
2318 HK
2328 HK
2333 HK
2338 HK
2600 HK
2601 HK
2628 HK
2883 HK
2899 HK
3323 HK
3328 HK
358 HK
386 HK
390 HK
3968 HK
3988 HK
489 HK
6030 HK
6837 HK
728 HK
753 HK
857 HK
902 HK
914 HK
916 HK
939 HK
998 HK
6.11
20.90
27.25
5.12
4.96
6.20
3.85
44.65
5.67
51.05
8.00
4.28
8.85
7.10
83.00
15.44
44.45
31.10
3.51
37.40
31.05
12.22
2.32
7.40
6.46
12.88
6.19
5.69
17.74
4.40
11.22
25.65
17.34
4.77
6.99
8.56
9.63
26.10
8.12
6.39
5.78
27,350.63
450,650.55
75,403.34
27,344.02
53,952.43
60,529.27
1,329,194.62
182,328.88
1,947,578.91
67,794.05
197,729.59
86,591.43
368,241.57
58,650.93
752,047.74
228,952.20
160,384.45
63,896.62
74,325.89
352,297.21
1,141,199.70
89,546.91
81,962.11
39,952.79
518,271.40
62,811.22
828,716.03
196,505.39
447,832.36
1,418,587.41
96,672.87
372,875.80
228,821.38
386,047.41
108,101.68
2,419,865.19
136,467.99
131,051.87
65,255.48
1,603,376.58
351,544.76
-0.2
-1.2
-4.0
-9.7
1.2
-1.7
1.6
0.0
1.3
-2.9
-6.0
0.9
-6.8
-0.4
0.1
2.5
1.1
1.0
-3.0
-1.1
1.0
-5.7
-4.5
-1.5
0.2
2.5
0.3
-1.6
2.7
1.1
-1.9
3.6
4.0
5.1
-1.4
1.7
-9.5
-1.1
-3.2
2.2
0.5
-2.4
-8.9
-0.7
-3.8
-16.1
-5.6
-1.8
14.0
0.2
-2.9
-14.3
-11.9
-13.2
0.6
4.9
2.4
0.8
-4.9
-2.2
-5.1
2.0
-9.2
5.5
-1.9
-10.8
-3.2
-1.0
-10.8
-8.8
0.7
2.2
-12.2
-11.2
5.1
11.5
-0.5
-8.1
-10.2
0.6
0.3
-7.1
10.0
24.4
34.5
6.3
6.4
7.3
4.1
45.3
5.9
64.0
10.2
5.4
10.7
9.9
88.7
16.2
45.7
34.9
4.3
42.0
32.8
23.4
2.7
8.4
7.4
15.2
8.2
6.7
20.0
4.6
15.2
34.0
23.2
5.2
7.5
11.7
11.6
35.7
10.0
6.6
6.3
5.7
19.1
19.7
4.0
3.5
4.9
3.0
21.1
4.3
50.4
4.9
3.7
5.9
6.6
55.6
9.4
26.1
25.8
2.5
23.6
19.7
11.7
1.6
6.7
4.5
11.6
5.7
3.0
12.1
3.0
9.6
13.7
9.5
3.1
4.2
7.3
6.1
24.0
7.1
4.9
3.6
72.0
7.8
22.0
N/A
16.7
6.7
5.6
18.7
5.8
28.0
8.1
33.2
5.4
11.7
16.8
16.0
13.5
9.6
N/A
25.6
26.4
5.7
19.1
5.2
6.0
10.1
8.5
9.8
6.2
5.9
5.8
28.7
31.8
16.7
26.4
9.6
9.5
9.2
27.0
5.7
5.3
22.2
8.6
19.8
44.4
19.8
15.3
5.5
14.6
5.8
27.4
7.7
55.7
5.1
10.6
14.0
13.0
13.4
10.2
N/A
22.1
19.9
6.0
16.1
5.6
6.0
12.2
9.5
9.3
6.2
6.0
6.1
24.2
19.3
16.9
20.8
10.6
9.0
9.6
21.3
5.6
5.3
11,789
4,810,303
0.5
-1.6
12,400.4
9,159.8
8.3
8.0
7.2
Source: Bloomberg
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–––– 52-week ––––
Hi
Lo
(HK$)
(HK$)
––––––––––– PE –––––––––––
2014A
2015E
2016E
Yield
P/B
(X)
(%)
(X)
18.6
8.6
16.7
13.2
15.0
19.8
5.1
13.5
5.5
24.4
7.0
39.7
4.9
8.3
12.9
12.1
10.1
10.6
N/A
18.8
17.1
7.6
16.4
5.3
5.7
13.6
13.6
8.4
5.7
5.6
5.8
19.6
15.4
15.1
10.7
15.9
8.3
9.0
14.8
5.3
5.0
1.3
5.4
1.2
0.0
3.8
0.4
N/A
0.4
N/A
N/A
2.9
2.3
2.2
3.1
1.0
1.8
2.3
1.0
N/A
1.3
1.2
4.4
N/A
2.7
N/A
4.8
4.8
1.4
4.3
5.5
2.0
N/A
0.9
2.5
0.8
4.6
4.9
1.7
0.7
5.8
N/A
2.4
1.2
2.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
1.1
2.6
1.1
3.6
1.1
0.5
1.1
1.1
2.6
2.7
3.7
1.6
1.0
2.6
2.9
1.1
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.1
2.5
2.1
1.1
1.4
1.1
1.7
1.9
1.6
1.1
0.9
3.9
1.3
Morning Express
06 February 2015
BOCOM International
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Main: + 852 3710 3328
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Rating System
Company Rating
www.bocomgroup.com
Sector Rating
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LT Buy: Expect more than 20% upside but longer than 12 months
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Head of Research
@bocomgroup.com
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(852) 2977 9393
@bocomgroup.com
raymond.cheng
Strategy
Economics
Hao HONG, CFA
Miaoxian LI
(852) 2977 9384
hao.hong
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yangqingli
Fei WU
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fei.wu
Shanshan LI, CFA
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lishanshan
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xutong.liu
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Wanli
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Qingli YANG
miaoxian.li
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Consumer Discretionary
Property
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anita.chu
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summer.wang
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shawn.wu
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milo.liu
Consumer Staples
Alfred LAU, CFA, FRM
(852) 2977 9235
alfred.lau
Luella GUO
(852) 2977 9211
luella.guo
(86) 21 6065 3606
louis.sun
(852) 2977 9209
lizhiwu
(852) 2977 9216
miles.xie
Geoffrey CHENG, CFA
(852) 2977 9380
geoffrey.cheng
Fay ZHOU
(852) 2977 9381
fay.zhou
(86) 21 6065 3675
wei.yao
Renewable Energy
Healthcare
Louis SUN
Telecom & Small/ Mid-Caps
Milo LIU
Insurance & Brokerage
Zhiwu LI
Technology
Jerry LI
(852) 2977 9389
liwenbing
Jennifer ZHANG
(852) 2977 9250
yufan.zhang
Yuan MA, PhD
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8039
yuan.ma
Connie GU, CPA
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8045
conniegu
Internet
Miles XIE
Transportation & Industrial
Metals & Mining
Jovi LI
(86) 10 8800 9788 - 8043
Automobile
(852) 2977 9243
jovi.li
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Morning Express
06 February 2015
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