1. finance
2. investing
3. stocks

Wednesday
October 15 2014
Morning Brief
Daily
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
October 14
4922.58
Chg
+9.53 pts (+0.19%)
Volume (bn shares)
3.96
Value (IDR tn)
4.23
Adv 149 Dec 288 Unc 111 Untr 149
Indonesian Market Daily
Foreign Transaction
Buy
Sell
Net Buy (Sell)
Top Net Buy
INDF
LPPF
SMGR
BMTR
MPPA
NB Val.
33.2
29.5
17.5
14.8
11.9
LQ-45 Index
Gainers
WIKA
WSKT
ADHI
INDF
CPIN
(IDR bn)
1,568
-2,058
-490
Top Net Sell NS Val.
BBRI
144.7
BMRI
83.4
BBNI
40.4
TLKM
39.5
ASII
33.3
Top Gainers & Losers
Losers
%
ITMG
-2.8%
JSMR
-2.1%
AKRA
-2.0%
BMTR
-1.9%
PTBA
-1.6%
%
+3.3%
+2.4%
+2.3%
+2.2%
+2.2%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Tenor: 10 year
USD/IDR
KRW/IDR
Last
Chg.
8.4808
12,206.20
11.47
-0.0187%
0.04%
0.34%
Global Indexes
Index
JCI - Intraday
JCI - daily charts
Indonesian Market Recap:
Indonesian market rebound yesterday as construction sector is benefiting from
fuel price hike planned by new government. Top gainers: Property (+0.94%),
Consumer (+0.77%), Misc Ind (+0.69%).
Today’s Outlook
For today we expect JCI to have good sentiment for continuing increase with
support range 4885-4905 and resistance range 4934-4958. Piercing line candlestick appeared above lower Bollinger band. MACD decreases with shortened
negative histogram. RSI, Stochastic, William’s %R are halted from decline.
Global Market
United States
US market ended mixed yesterday, halted three days losses, as investor considered positive earnings of banking and oil price decline.
Europe
European market surged yesterday as negative data from Euro zone was countered by positive earnings of US banks.
Asia
Asian market ended mixed yesterday as basic resources sector in Australia
jumped, but China’s market dropped caused by weak property sector.
Last
Chg.
%
Dow Jones
16,315.19
(5.88)
-0.04%
S&P 500
1,877.70
2.96
0.16%
Daily Recommendation (details on the next page)
Nasdaq
4,227.17
13.51
0.32%
Trading Buy: PGAS, INDF, MPPA
FTSE 100
6,392.68
26.44
0.42%
Daily News
CAC 40
4,088.25
9.55
0.23%
BBCA: Estimate growth at 12% this year
PSAB: Plan to refinancing its debt
PWON: Add recurring income after finished acquisition
BSDE: Third quarter, marketing sales only grow 4%
DAX
8,825.21
12.78
0.15%
Nikkei
14,936.51
(364.04)
-2.38%
Hang Seng
23,047.97
(95.41)
-0.41%
S&P/ASX 200
5,207.43
51.93
1.01%
Supplements:
JK : New Government confirm to raise fuel price
Global News
CSI 300
2,446.56
(8.39)
-0.34%
KOSPI
1,929.25
2.04
0.11%
Commodity Price
Commodity
Indonesia Economic Data
Last
Chg.
%
Gold ($/troy oz.)
3.83
(5.37)
-0.43%
BI Rate
7.50%
7.50%
Real GDP
5.12%
5.22%
Crude Oil ($/bbl)
82.86
(1.46)
-1.73%
FX Reserve (USD bn)
111.16
111.22
Current Acc (USD bn)
111.20
110.50
Gas ($/mmbtu)
3.83
(0.08)
-2.05%
Trd Balance (USD bn)
-0.31
0.13
0.13
-0.28
Nickel LME ($/MT) 16,371
71.00
0.44%
Exports Yoy
10.6%
-6.03%
Tin LME ($/MT)
20,160
63.00
0.31%
Imports Yoy
13.7%
-19.30%
CPO (MYR/Ton)
2,167
1.99
0.09%
Inflation Yoy
4.53.%
3.99%
Monthly Indicator
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Daily Morning Brief
Last
Prev.
Quarterly Indicator
Govt Spending
FDI
Business Confidence
Cons. Confidence
Last
Prev.
-6.03%
4.50%
-19.30%
0.50%
3.99%
4.53%
Page 11
Stocks Recommendation
PGAS
Analysis
Tweezer bottom candlestick pattern can
maintained above lower Bollinger band.
Price can maintained above 5700 supported by stochastic increase.
Range
5650 - 5925
Action
Maintained buy as price above 5750
INDF
Analysis
Separating lines candlestick appeared on
middle Bollinger band area. RSI indicator
is starting to move higher supported by
momentum increase.
Range
6750 - 7050
Action
Maintained buy as price above 6925
MPPA
Analysis
Ladder bottom candlestick appeared
above lower Bollinger band. After price
can breakout and maintain above resistance 2795, now price is moving to next
resistance.
Range
2720 - 3100
Action
Trading buy as price above 2985
Daily News
BBCA: Estimate growth at 12% this year
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) is projecting will grow 12%
by the end of this year, given the economic slowdown.
According to BBCA, state-run business is still relatively good,
but the Bank has not made the addition and improvement of
business in the middle of an economic slowdown.
PSAB: Plan to refinancing its debt
PT J Resources Asia Pacific Tbk (PSAB) plans to seek external
funds to refinancing their debt. PSAB will release bonds
worth a maximum of US$300 million in December 2014. The
bond would give the maximum fixed rate of 10% per year.
The tenor of bond, planned maximum of five years since
published.
PWON: Add recurring income after finished acquisition
The property developer, PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk. (PWON), believes could increase recurring revenue from its corporate
action. PWON acquired PT Pakuwon Permai, where not consolidated affiliated companies financially. PWON acquired a
67,1% stake EEMF Asian Development BV in Pakuwon Permai worth Rp 2,34 trillion. Pakuwon Permai has a shopping
mall in Surabaya and Jakarta
BSDE: Third quarter, marketing sales only grow 4%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai, Tbk recorded IDR 4.7 trilion of
marketing sales on third quarter or grow 4% from last year.
This achivement has realized 83% of its target for full year
2014. Largest contribution come from house unit sales,
generating 41%. Majority of house unit sales come from BSD
City Serpong that contribute 75 %.
e2
Page 22
Stocks Technical Analysis
Ticker
Open
IHSG
4,902
High
4,941
Low
4,900
Close
4,922
Prev
∆%
4,913 0.18%
S1
S2
S3
4,892
4,875
4,851
Pivot
4,916
R1
R2
R3
4,933
4,957
4,974
Target
YTD
(%)
PER
(x)
Spt
Rst
4,892
4,957 15.16%
16.07
22,200 -13.15%
10.94
Agriculture
AALI
21,900
22,100
21,800
21,800
21,900 -0.46%
21,700
21,600
21,400
21,900
22,000
22,200
22,300
21,700
LSIP
1,855
1,875
1,855
1,855
1,870 -0.80%
1,845
1,840
1,825
1,860
1,865
1,880
1,885
1,845
1,880
-3.89%
14.16
ADRO
995
1,025
990
1,010
1,010
0.00%
985
970
950
1,005
1,020
1,040
1,055
985
1,040
-7.34%
5.52
HRUM
1,690
1,715
1,680
1,690
1,690
0.00%
1,673
1,659
1,638
1,694
1,708
1,729
1,743
1,673
1,729 -38.55%
9.23
ITMG
22,900
23,075
22,275
22,300
22,950 -2.83%
22,200
21,838
21,400
22,638
23,000
23,438
23,800
22,200
23,438 -21.75%
INCO
3,620
3,725
3,620
3,685
3,660
0.68%
3,600
3,558
3,495
3,663
3,705
3,768
3,810
3,600
3,768
39.06%
44.40
TINS
1,205
1,210
1,195
1,195
1,200 -0.42%
1,193
1,186
1,178
1,201
1,208
1,216
1,223
1,193
1,216
10.55%
17.32
Mining
5.74
Basic Industries
CPIN
3,735
3,810
3,705
3,780
3,700
2.16%
3,705
3,653
3,600
3,758
3,810
3,863
3,915
3,705
3,863
12.00%
23.48
MAIN
3,175
3,215
3,160
3,190
3,155
1.11%
3,155
3,130
3,100
3,185
3,210
3,240
3,265
3,155
3,240
0.47%
24.54
JPFA
1,150
1,165
1,140
1,150
1,150
0.00%
1,138
1,126
1,113
1,151
1,163
1,176
1,188
1,138
1,176
-5.74%
57.50
INTP
22,000
22,425
21,900
22,150
22,000
0.68%
21,813
21,594
21,288
22,119
22,338
22,644
22,863
21,813
22,644
10.75%
18.05
SMCB
2,450
2,470
2,440
2,450
2,445
0.20%
2,435
2,423
2,405
2,453
2,465
2,483
2,495
2,435
2,483
7.69%
14.50
SMGR
15,000
15,125
14,950
15,100
15,100
0.00%
14,963
14,869
14,788
15,044
15,138
15,219
15,313
14,963
15,219
6.71%
17.18
WTON
1,050
1,085
1,040
1,075
1,050
2.38%
1,040
1,018
995
1,063
1,085
1,108
1,130
1,040
1,108
-
29.05
6,450
6,325
6,400
6,350
0.79%
6,313
6,256
6,188
6,381
6,438
6,506
6,563
6,313
6,506
-5.88%
13.70
Misc. Industries
ASII
6,350
Consumer
AISA
2,160
2,170
2,135
2,160
2,160
0.00%
2,143
2,121
2,108
2,156
2,178
2,191
2,213
2,143
2,191
51.05%
16.12
ICBP
11,000
11,125
11,000
11,025
11,025
0.00%
10,950
10,913
10,825
11,038
11,075
11,163
11,200
10,950
11,163
8.09%
23.36
INDF
6,850
6,975
6,800
6,950
6,800
2.21%
6,813
6,719
6,638
6,894
6,988
7,069
7,163
6,813
7,069
5.30%
11.10
ROTI
1,080
1,100
1,075
1,085
1,080
0.46%
1,070
1,060
1,045
1,085
1,095
1,110
1,120
1,070
1,110
6.37%
22.60
57,000
57,100
56,400
56,800
56,600
0.35%
56,550
56,125
55,850
56,825
57,250
57,525
57,950
56,550
57,525
35.24%
19.28
KLBF
1,615
1,625
1,605
1,605
1,615 -0.62%
1,600
1,593
1,580
1,613
1,620
1,633
1,640
1,600
1,633
28.40%
38.21
UNVR
30,500
31,150
30,500
30,925
30,500
1.39%
30,388
30,119
29,738
30,769
31,038
31,419
31,688
30,388
31,419
18.94%
43.37
ASRI
435
446
434
442
437
1.14%
433
427
421
439
445
451
457
433
451
2.79%
7.02
BEST
525
545
515
535
535
0.00%
515
500
485
530
545
560
575
515
560
20.22%
14.08
BSDE
1,435
1,455
1,420
1,455
1,435
1.39%
1,428
1,406
1,393
1,441
1,463
1,476
1,498
1,428
1,476
12.79%
13.73
CTRA
985
995
980
985
985
0.00%
978
971
963
986
993
1,001
1,008
978
1,001
31.33%
16.42
CTRP
705
705
700
700
705 -0.71%
700
698
695
703
705
708
710
700
708
12.90%
35.00
LPKR
970
980
950
965
970 -0.52%
953
936
923
966
983
996
1,013
953
996
6.04%
16.36
PWON
400
407
400
405
399
1.50%
399
396
392
403
406
410
413
399
410
50.00%
11.91
ADHI
2,325
2,425
2,320
2,405
2,350
2.34%
2,313
2,264
2,208
2,369
2,418
2,474
2,523
2,313
2,474
59.27%
66.81
PTPP
2,205
2,295
2,205
2,285
2,240
2.01%
2,200
2,158
2,110
2,248
2,290
2,338
2,380
2,200
2,338
96.98%
44.80
TOTL
850
895
850
885
850
4.12%
845
825
800
870
890
915
935
845
915
77.00%
20.11
WIKA
2,575
2,690
2,565
2,675
2,590
3.28%
2,563
2,501
2,438
2,626
2,688
2,751
2,813
2,563
2,751
69.30%
24.54
WSKT
835
865
835
855
835
2.40%
830
818
800
848
860
878
890
830
GGRM
Property
878 111.11% 285.00
Infrastructure
EXCL
5,800
5,850
5,725
5,800
5,825 -0.43%
5,738
5,669
5,613
5,794
5,863
5,919
5,988
5,738
5,919
11.54%
TLKM
2,760
2,800
2,755
2,775
2,775
0.00%
2,745
2,728
2,700
2,773
2,790
2,818
2,835
2,745
2,818
29.07%
19.14
PGAS
JSMR
Finance
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN
BMRI
Trade
AKRA
UNTR
ACES
ERAA
LPPF
MPPA
TELE
SCMA
BHIT
BMTR
5,700
6,075
5,800
6,075
5,700
5,925
5,800
5,950
5,700 1.75%
6,075 -2.06%
5,700
5,938
5,650
5,856
5,600
5,788
5,750
6,006
5,800
6,088
5,850
6,156
5,900
6,238
5,700
5,938
5,850
6,156
29.61%
25.93%
17.42
26.92
12,500
5,275
10,000
1,075
9,325
12,750
5,375
10,225
1,105
9,525
12,500
5,250
10,000
1,070
9,300
12,625
5,275
10,100
1,100
9,450
12,600
5,275
10,050
1,080
9,400
0.20%
0.00%
0.50%
1.85%
0.53%
12,438
5,213
9,938
1,070
9,275
12,344
5,169
9,856
1,053
9,175
12,188
5,088
9,713
1,035
9,050
12,594
5,294
10,081
1,088
9,400
12,688
5,338
10,163
1,105
9,500
12,844
5,419
10,306
1,123
9,625
12,938
5,463
10,388
1,140
9,725
12,438
5,213
9,938
1,070
9,275
12,844
5,419
10,306
1,123
9,625
31.51%
33.54%
39.31%
26.44%
20.38%
21.22
10.28
10.50
8.53
11.20
4,780
18,125
815
970
15,000
2,725
940
3,360
333
1,775
4,800
18,225
820
990
15,125
3,030
950
3,420
338
1,825
4,700
18,000
800
965
14,875
2,725
930
3,350
333
1,745
4,705
18,000
805
990
15,000
3,000
945
3,370
336
1,765
4,800
18,200
815
975
15,125
2,725
940
3,420
338
1,800
-1.98%
-1.10%
-1.23%
1.54%
-0.83%
10.09%
0.53%
-1.46%
-0.59%
-1.94%
4,693
17,950
800
968
14,875
2,710
933
3,330
332
1,730
4,646
17,863
790
954
14,750
2,565
921
3,305
330
1,698
4,593
17,725
780
943
14,625
2,405
913
3,260
327
1,650
4,746
18,088
810
979
15,000
2,870
941
3,375
335
1,778
4,793
18,175
820
993
15,125
3,015
953
3,400
337
1,810
4,846
18,313
830
1,004
15,250
3,175
961
3,445
340
1,858
4,893
18,400
840
1,018
15,375
3,320
973
3,470
342
1,890
4,693
17,950
800
968
14,875
2,710
933
3,330
332
1,730
4,846
18,313
830
1,004
15,250
3,175
961
3,445
340
1,858
7.54%
-5.26%
36.44%
-1.00%
36.36%
54.64%
52.42%
28.38%
-1.18%
-7.11%
25.43
10.65
25.16
9.00
88.76
78.95
24.87
38.74
7.81
20.52
e3
32.58
Page 33
Global Economic Calendar
Date
Country
Hour
Event
Jakarta
Tentative Trade Balance (in USD bn)
Period
Actual
m/m
Sep
31.0
5
1.2%
-3.6
-1.8%
Consensus
41.2
Prev
Monday
13-Oct
CHN
Tuesday
14-Oct
AUS
GBR
GER
Europe
7:30 AM
3:30 PM
4:00 PM
4:00 PM
NAB Business Confidence
CPI
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Industrial Production
Index
y/y
Index
m/m
Sep
Sep
Oct
Aug
Wednesday
15-Oct
CHN
GBR
GBR
USA
USA
USA
USA
8:30 AM
3:30 PM
3:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
7:30 PM
CPI
Average Earnings Index
Claimant Count Change (in '000)
Core Retail Sales
PPI
Retail Sales
Empire State Manufacturing Index
y/y
3m/y
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
Index
Sep
Aug
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Oct
2.00%
0.60%
-37.2
0.30%
0.00%
0.60%
27.5
Thursday
16-Oct
USA
USA
USA
1:00 AM The Fed - Beige Book
7:30 PM Unemployment Claims
9:00 PM Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
w/w
Index
w1 Oct
Oct
22.5
USA
USA
USA
7:30 PM Building Permits (in mn)
7:30 PM Housing Starts (in mn)
7:30 PM Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
m/m
m/m
Index
Sep
Sep
Oct
Friday
16-Oct
1.4%
0.2
-1.5%
49.8
7
1.50%
6.9
0.90%
1
0.96
Supplement: Global & Local Events
JK : New Government confirm to raise fuel price
In the meeting with 50 CEO and financial institution leaders, Jusuf Kalla, vice president elected, stated that the next government led by Joko Widodo, will faster to take a decision, including to raise fuel subsidized price. This topic is one of most significant thing that really concerned by the market. Jokowi-JK will raise fuel price in order to reduce current account deficit and give
healthy state budget. Jusuf Kalla estimated that it needs two to three weeks after the inauguration to raise fuel price due to
administration process. He also stated that this policy should be taken immediately because subsidy cost has achieved IDR 1
trillion per day.
In addition, Jusuf Kalla also stated that it was decided that 7 economic related minister will chosen from professional background, not from political party. These minister such as economic coordinating minister, finance minister, energy and natural
resources minister, state enterprise minister, and agriculture minister.
Global News
President Barack Obama will try to shore up a coalition against Islamic State forces today as airstrikes have failed to stop the
extremist Sunni group from gaining territory in Iraq and Syria. With questions growing about a plan that lacks effective ground
forces, Obama and the top U.S. military officer will meet with defense ministers from more than 20 allied countries to bolster
support for a strategy that even former administration officials say is foundering.
Scores of Hong Kong police officers moved in on pro-democracy protesters who blockaded a road near the city government’s
headquarters early this morning, using pepper spray and taking away some demonstrators. The clashes are the most serious
since the police used tear gas two weeks ago as they tried to disperse crowds that are occupying key roads in the city. A group
of more than 100 demonstrators had seized the Lung Wo Road underpass yesterday evening, initially forcing outnumbered
police to retreat.
e4
Page 44
Disclaimer & Contacts
Research Team:
Reza Priyambada
[email protected]
Bagus Permadi
[email protected]
Agustini Hamid
[email protected]
Hendrik Panca
[email protected]
Raphon Prima
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER
This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia
or a related entity to PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to
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PT. Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia
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PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Daily Morning Brief
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