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Lars Højsgaard Andersen
UNIVERSIT Y OF COPENHAGEN
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY
PHD THESIS 2015 · ISBN 978-87-7611-913-3
university of copenhagen
f a c u lt y o f s o c i a l s c i e n c e s
LARS HØJSGAARD ANDERSEN
CONSEQUENCES OF PUNISHMENT IN DENMARK. Five Empirical Essays
CONSEQUENCES OF PUNISHMENT IN DENMARK. Five Empirical Essays
CONSEQUENCES OF PUNISHMENT
IN DENMARK
Five Empirical Essays
PhD Dissertation
Lars Højsgaard Andersen
Lars H. Andersen SOCIO omslag 15 mm.indd 1
01/07/15 09.45
UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN
PHD DISSERTATION
CONSEQUENCES OF PUNISHMENT
IN DENMARK
Five Empirical Essays
Author
Lars Højsgaard Andersen
Supervisor
Mads Meier Jæger
Co-Supervisor
Signe Hald Andersen
01 / 30 / 2015
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY
PhD Dissertation 2015 © Lars Højsgaard Andersen
ISBN 978-87-7611-913-3
Printed by SL grafik, Frederiksberg, Denmark (www.slgrafik.dk)
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i
SUMMARY
Millions of people throughout the world experience punishment each day, and, for example,
more than 10 million people were incarcerated on any given day in 2013. Despite these high
figures, which should draw in the attention of social scientists, sociology and criminology
still have many important but unanswered questions about the consequences of punishment.
This dissertation uses econometric methods and register data to provide new empirical
evidence on the individual consequences of punishment in Denmark, thereby providing
empirical answers to some of these previously unanswered questions.
The dissertation consists of an introduction and five empirical essays. The
introduction outlines a general framework for analyzing the consequences of punishment,
and draws out general implications from the results presented in the dissertation. The first
empirical essay analyzes the effect of age at first imprisonment on the Age-Crime Curve. The
main result is that being younger at first imprisonment increases the rate of criminal
convictions in the short run, but it does not change the overall shape of the Age-Crime Curve.
The second essay analyzes the effect of serving a prison sentence at home under electronic
monitoring on social welfare benefit take-up. The main result is that, relative to
imprisonment, electronic monitoring improves young offenders’ labor market outcomes, and,
moreover, it does not leave older offenders worse off. Essays three and four analyze the role
of probation and parole officers in shaping the outcomes of probationers and parolees. The
third essay decomposes the total variance in criminal recidivism into components attributable
to offenders and officers, respectively. The main result is that, in addition to offenders,
characteristics of officers account for a non-trivial share of the total variance in rates of
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recidivism. The fourth essay exploits random assignment of officers to probationers and
parolees in Copenhagen, Denmark to identify the effect of officer assignment on labor
market outcomes and recidivism. The main result is that, although to a lesser degree than
suggested in existing research, officer assignment affects labor market outcomes and
recidivism. Finally, the fifth essay analyzes whether having a spouse who has previously
committed crime moderates the crime-reducing function of marriage among previously
convicted men. Empirical results suggest that this is indeed the case.
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iii
RESUME
En hvilken som helst dag i 2013 sad over 10 millioner mennesker indespærret rundt omkring
i verden. Hertil skal man lægge de millioner af mennesker, som oplever andre former for
straf, fx alternativer til frihedsstraf, såsom elektronisk fodlænke eller tilsyn. Men selvom så
mange mennesker straffes, og selvom alle grene af socialvidenskaberne har kastet sig over
emnet, er der faktisk bemærkelsesværdigt mange spørgsmål om de individuelle konsekvenser
af straf, som vi stadig mangler at besvare. Denne afhandling, som omhandler de individuelle
konsekvenser ved straf, giver empiriske svar på nogle af disse ubesvarede spørgsmål ved at
anvende statistiske værktøjer på danske registerdata.
Afhandlingen består af en introduktion og fem empiriske essays. Introduktionen
beskriver afhandlingens overordnede tilgang til at analysere konsekvenserne af straf og
sammenfatter de generelle implikationer af resultaterne i de fem empiriske essays.
Det første empiriske essay analyserer konsekvenserne af tidligere indespærring for
unge voldsmænd. Hovedkonklusionen er, at tidligere indespærring medfører mere
kriminalitet blandt disse unge mænd inden for en kort årrække efter løsladelsen. Det andet
empiriske essay analyserer om personer, der afsoner en fængselsstraf i hjemmet med en
elektronisk fodlænke, får en bedre arbejdsmarkedstilknytning efter straffen, end
sammenlignelige personer, der afsoner deres straf i fængsel. Hovedkonklusionen er, at
relativt til et fængselsophold, så klarer unge fodlænkeafsonere sig bedre på arbejdsmarkedet
efter, at straffen er udstået. Denne effekt kan dog ikke findes blandt ældre afsonere, for hvem
fodlænkeafsoning dog ikke er mere skadeligt end fængsel.
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Det trejde og fjerde essay handler om, hvilken betydning tilsynsførende har for deres
klienter, som har fået en betinget dom. Det tredje essay opdeler variationen i tilbagefald til
kriminalitet blandt klienterne i én delmængde, der kan tilskrives omstændigheder ved
klienten selv, og én delmængde, der kan tilskrives omstændigheder ved den tilsynsførende.
Hovedkonlusionen er, at ud over, at en stor del af klienternes tilbagefald til kriminalitet kan
forklares af forhold ved klienterne selv, så kan en betragtelig del af tilbagefaldet til
kriminalitet også forklares af forhold ved den tilsynsførende. Det fjerde essay analyserer,
hvad det betyder for de betinget dømte, hvilken tilsynsførende de tilses af.
Hovedkonklusionen er, at det faktisk betyder noget for de betinget dømtes arbejdsmarkedstilknytning og tilbagefald til kriminalitet, hvilken tilsynsførende de tilses af, men at
betydningen er noget mindre, end den eksisterende forskning på området fremstiller det.
Det femte og sidste essay analyserer, om den kriminalitetssænkende effekt af
ægteskab, som literaturen gentagne gange har analyseret, også findes for tidligere dømte
mænd, samt om den eventuelt afhænger af partnerens egen kriminalitetshistorie.
Hovedkonklusionen er, at begge dele er tilfældet.
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v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Never write ‘‘it goes without saying’’. Why would you possibly want to waste words telling
your reader something which there is no need to tell? This was one of the first things I was
taught when I began my PhD studies back in 2012, and it is still one of those things that I
keep in mind as I write academic papers today. But today, following 2½ years of dissertation
work, my first academic publications, living for a while in the United States, getting married
and having the joy of one more paternity leave, saying the stuff that goes without saying
seems like the most important part of this dissertation.
I have a lot to say that goes without saying, because so many people have offered me
help, advice, and support during the process of writing this dissertation. First, I thank my
supervisors, Mads Meier Jæger and Signe Hald Andersen, for excellent supervision and
guidance. Second, I thank the Rockwool Foundation Research Unit for funding my PhD
studies, and I especially thank Torben Tranæs for always believing in my ideas and abilities.
Third, I thank Peer Skov, Peter Fallesen, and Rasmus Landersø, my friends and colleagues,
for making each day of my PhD studies quite a bit more entertaining, and for helping me out
with methodological headaches (and for inducing other fun-related headaches). Fourth, I
thank Britta Kyvsgaard at the Danish Ministry of Justice for, back in 2005, directing my
inexperienced research attention to the field of criminology, and for continuously being a
great mentor.
And speaking of mentors, a special thank goes out to Christopher Wildeman. Chris
invited me over to Yale University for a semester; we collaborated (and still collaborate) on
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research papers; he taught (and still teaches) me how to write academic papers and give
presentations; and we had (and still have) great fun. Most importantly, though, he restored in
me the urge to tell good sociological stories, for which I am very grateful. Also, during our
stay in New Haven, Chris and his family took great care of my family and me, and I thank
Chris, Cilla, and the kids for that.
I would like to thank a few persons at the Danish Prison and Probation Service for
providing me with access to those incredibly good data on which this dissertation is based,
and for helping me understand those data. Every empirical researcher ought to have a data
pusher like Hans Graunbøl who, whenever I call him with strange and unclear data inquiries,
keeps his calm, explains how registration processes take place regarding that particular topic
and how this matters for the nature of the data, and provides me with access to data. Anita
Rönneling, Anne Bergstedt, Estrid Pass, Pernille Poulsen, and Pernille Lape spend hours
answering my inquiries about nitty-witty details of probation and parole. I thank you for this.
In addition to work-related acknowledgments, I thank friends and family. I thank my
parents for always leading me down the right roads, and I thank my friends, especially
Anders, Rune, Calle, and Krølle, for making those roads so much fun. I also thank Sidse’s
family for support and for helping out with the kids.
The acknowledgment that goes the most without saying, and therefore is the most
important one, concerns my beautiful wife Sidse and our two lovely kids, Karl-Louis and
Marie. Der findes ikke ord til at beskrive min taknemmelighed, I er intet mindre end
formidable. Selv når børnene er syge, forældrene forjagede, og arbejdet både dragende og
krævende, er det hjemme hos jer, det hele giver mening.
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Last, I am grateful for receiving travel grants from (in Danish): Augustinus Fonden,
Christian og Ottilia Brorsons Rejselegat for yngre videnskabsmænd og –kvinder, Etly og
Jørgen Stjerngrens Fond, Knud Højgaards Fond, Oticon Fonden, Rockwool Fondens
Forskningsenhed, Torben and Alice Frimodts Fond. Without financial support from these
grants my family and I would not have been able to visit Yale University.
I feel confident that everyone I just thanked actually already knew how much I
appreciate their help and support. But sometimes you need to say the things that go without
saying, even if they don’t do your gratitude any justice in writing.
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ix
CONTENTS
Summary
Resume
i
iii
Acknowledgments
v
List of Tables
xi
List of Figures
xii
1
INTRODUCTION
2
FIRST IMPRISONMENT AND THE AGE-CRIME CURVE
27
3
THE EFFECT OF ELECTRONIC MONITORING ON SOCIAL WELFARE DEPENDENCE
63
4
DECOMPOSING RECIDIVISM VARIANCE INTO PROBATION AND PAROLE OFFICERS
AND THEIR CLIENTS
115
5
MEASURING THE EFFECT OF PROBATION AND PAROLE OFFICERS ON LABOR
MARKET OUTCOMES AND RECIDIVISM
147
6
THE EFFECT OF MARRIAGE AND SPOUSAL CRIMINALITY ON RECIDIVISM
189
Bibliography
1
221