1. No category

Macro Research
3. november 2014
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken
Dagens fokus
 I dag modtager fra USA vi ISM’s fremstillingsindeks. Her ventes en stort set
uændret værdi i oktober på omkring 56,6, efter indekset i september uventet
kraftig afbrød rækken af stigninger i de forrige syv måneder. Vi har modtaget
lidt divergerende regionale barometre, hvor indeksene fra distriktscentralbankerne i New York og Philadelphia pegede nedad, mens Richmonds og Chicago
PMI (se figur samt afsnit neden for) pegede op. Derudover har Markit’s nationale PMI-fremstillingsindeks vist et lille fald. Ydermere har vi modtaget lidt forskellige input i form af styrket USD og faldende energipriser. Endelig er det værd at
bide mærke i, at de seneste udsving i ISM-indekset har bevæget sig tæt op at
udviklingen i bilsalget, hvor der ventes en lille stigning i oktober, som vi også
modtager tal for i dag.
 Derudover er det generelt en dag der står i oktober-fremstillingsbarometrenes
tegn. Vi modtager således også PMI-indeks fra Storbritannien, Schweiz og
Sverige. Der ventes en stigning i Schweiz, det britiske nogenlunde uændret,
mens det svenske ventes at falde tilbage. Vi ser derudover en lille mulighed for
en nedrevidering af PMI-indekset for euroområdet, der overraskede positivt i
den foreløbige opgørelse.
 Ellers er det en rimelig begivenhedsrig uge, hvor der uden for nøgletallene i
morgen kan komme noget fokus på midtvejsvalget i USA, hvor vi dog ikke ser
den store risiko for større reaktioner på finansmarkederne, selvom Demokraterne skulle tabe begge kamre i Kongressen. Blandt nøgletallene er der især
fokus på ISM-service onsdag og arbejdsmarkedsrapport fredag, hvor sidstnævnte ventes at fastholde de pæne takter. Endelig venter vi ikke de store ændringer på rentemøderne i BoE og ECB torsdag. Her vil der nok især være fokus på hvorvidt ECB flager muligheden for yderligere stimulans, hvilket vi dog
venter at ECB og Draghi vil være påholdende med.
USA: Chicago PMI peger ISM-fremstilling op
Kilde: Macrobond
Højdepunkter siden sidst
 Markederne: God stemning på aktiemarkederne som følge af BoJ-stimulans.






JPY svækkes og USD styrkes, mens renterne stiger i USA på stærke nøgletal. I
Asien peger børserne let nedad (Japan lukket).
USA: Det personlige forbrug faldt uventet i september med 0,2% m/m, hvilket
sandsynligvis svækker den seneste lidt overraskende positive opgørelse af privatforbruget for 3. kvartal. Som ventet var kerne-forbrugsdeflatoren PCEcore uændret 1,5% i september. Derimod modtog vi på ny tegn på, at lønvæksten snarligt vil tage til, da ECI (employment cost index) igen steg med
0,7% i 3. kvartal. Chicago PMI steg uventet kraftigt til 66,2, og nåede dermed
det højeste niveau i et år. Det peger isoleret set dagens ISM opad.
Kina: Det officielle PMI-fremstillingsindeks fra NBS faldt i oktober til 50,8 fra
51,2 i september. Dermed nåede indekset det laveste niveau siden maj. Desuden faldt NBS’ PMI-serviceindeks til 53,8 i oktober fra forrige 54,0 (laveste siden januar). Tilsammen antyder indeksene, at økonomien har genoptaget en
afmatning, i takt med at effekten fra de målrettede stimulanstiltag så småt aftager. Det understreger fortsat behov for stimulans, og afslutningen af møde i Kinas statsråd, anført af Li Keqiang, fremkom da også med en erklæring om at
man vil stabilisere ejendomsrelateret forbrug. Sidst man tilsvarende erklærede,
at man ville ”stabilisere” boligområdet, var i april 2009 i forbindelse med den
massive stimulanspakke der dengang blev udløst.
Euroområdet: Som ventet steg det foreløbige estimat for forbrugerprisinflationen en tand til 0,4% i oktober op fra 0,3% i september (se figur). Det skete på
trods af, at fald i energipriserne sandsynligvis har trukket pænt ned i prisudviklingen samt efter at tysk inflation viste sig lavere end ventet i oktober. På den
anden side er det fortsat for tidligt at aflyse frygten for deflation, da kerneinflationen samtidigt tog et nyt dyk ned til rekordlave 0,7% i oktober. Samtidigt modtog vi igen en uændret opgørelse af arbejdsløshedsraten på 11,5% i september, hvilket understreger, at tendensen til ledighedsbedring over det seneste år
allerede så småt er ved at gå i stå. Så man imidlertid på antallet af ledige faldt
det imidlertid til et toårigt lavpunkt. Den lavere inflation vil medvirke til at mindske presset en smule på ECB for at komme med yderligere stimulans allerede
på rentemødet i næste uge.
Tyskland: Detailsalget dykkede kraftigt med hele 3,2% m/m i september
samtidigt med at salget blev nedjusteret til +1,5% i august. Dermed er detailsalget faldet med knapt 0,4% i 3. kvartal i forhold til 2. kvartal og indikerer ikke
hjælp til BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal fra privatforbruget.
Frankrig: Vi modtog også svagere forbrugstegn fra Frankrig, hvor privatforbruget af varer uventet faldt med 0,8% m/m i september. Selvom det ikke var
nok til at opveje stigningen på 0,9% m/m i august betød det dog fortsat, at privatforbrugs væksten satte sig til 0,2% i 3. kvartal i forhold til 2. kvartal.
Rusland: Centralbanken hævede renten mere end ventet til 9,5% fra forrige
8% for at stabilisere den seneste RUB-svækkelse. RUB faldt dog tilbage, blandt
andet på en skuffelse over at centralbanken ikke greb til andre former for tiltag
for at stabilisere valutaen.
For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
EUR: Ledighed falder mens inflation mere stabil
Kilde: Macrobond
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. november 2014
Markedskommentarer
Aktier
Renter
Valuta
OMXC20 CAP (+0,99% / indeks 809,82)
endte i positivt territorium på ugens sidste
handelsdag. Den positive stemning var primært drevet af nye lempelsestiltag fra den
japanske centralbank. Således vil centralbanken øge sine opkøb af værdipapirer til 80 mia.
yen, hvor der tidligere var annonceret 60-70
mia. yen. I bunden af indekset endte Novo
Nordisk (-0,99% / kurs 268,60) som faldt lidt
tilbage efter aktien steg med 6% den foregående dag hvor medicinalselskabet rapporterede et 3. kvartalsregnskab der var bedre end
ventet. TDC (-0,15% / kurs 45,31) var også
blandt dagens bundskrabere, hvilket skyldes
at selskabet rapporterede 3. kvartalsregnskab
som var en smule skuffende. I den anden
ende af indekset endte Coloplast (+3,09% /
kurs 517,50) og belønnes dermed fortsat for
torsdagens regnskab, som var bedre end
frygtet.
Obligationsrenterne i trak opad i Europa fra
morgenstunden fredag i overensstemmelse
med den gode stemning på finansmarkederne
i kølvandet på annonceringen af BoJstimulans. Renterne faldt imidlertid tilbage
efter offentliggørelsen af svage tyske detailsalgstal samt svage franske tal for det private
forbrug af varer. Foreløbige inflationstal for
euroområdet viste den ventede stigning, som
svage tyske CPI-tal dog havde sået lidt tvivl
om på forhånd. På den anden side trak kerneinflationen lidt mere ned end ventet, mens
arbejdsløshedsraten var uændret. Det påvirkede ikke renterne synderligt, og de tyske og
danske renter endte dagen nogenlunde
uændret.
JPY blev svækket kraftigt fra morgenstunden
efter uventet BoJ-stimulans kombineret med
annonceringen af reform af den statslige
Pensionsfond GPIF, herunder med en øget
andel af udenlandske aktier.
USA bød senere på fredagen ind med svage
forbrugstal, men det blev overskygget af en
uventet stor stigning i Chicago PMI, samtidigt
med at ECI uventet viste en ny pæn stigning i
3. kvartal indikerende stadig stigende lønpres.
Det trak opad i renterne i USA over dagen.
EUR blev svækket påvirket af svage tyske
detailsalgstal samt franske tal for privatforbrug. Forbrugerprisinflationen steg en smule
uventet til 0,4%, men kerneinflationen faldt
samtidigt lidt mere end markederne ventede.
Arbejdsløshedsraten var uændret for 3. måned i streg.
USD blev styrket over en bred kam, hvilket
sidst på fredagen fik hjælp fra stærke tal på
Chicago PMI samt ikke mindst Employment
Cost Indekset, og indikerer dermed fortsat
stigende lønpres. Det overskyggede lidt blødere tal end ventet for personligt forbrug.
GBP blev styrket mod EUR, hvilket fik hjælp
fra BoE som satte et lavt ratekrav til kapitaldækningen (i forhold til forventningerne) på
4,05% . det overskyggede et uventet fald i
GfK-forbrugertilliden.
RUB blev svækket på trods af at Ruslands
centralbank hævede renten mere end ventet.
Dagens finansielle nøgletal
Aktier
Aktuelt
Valuta
%-Ændring
10-årige renter
Aktuelt
Ændring
OMXC20CAP
809,8
0,99
USD/JPY
112,7
1,710
Stoxx600
336,8
1,84
EUR/USD
1,249
-0,008
FTSE
6546,5
1,28
USD/DKK
5,959
0,038
S&P500
2018,1
1,17
CHF/DKK
6,173
0,000
Nasdaq
4630,7
1,41
GBP/DKK
9,519
0,054
Hang Seng
23902,4
-0,40
SEK/DKK
0,806
0,002
Nikkei
16413,8
4,83
NOK/DKK
0,881
-0,001
Aktuelt
Råvarer
Ændring
Aktuelt
USA
2,34
0,00
CRB
Euroområdet
0,84
0,00
Brent oil (1M fut)
Danmark
0,84
0,02
Gold (spot)
Ændring
272,0
1,64
85,6
-0,27
1170,2
-1,49
+6 mdr.
+12 mdr.
Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30
Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger
Officielle renter
Aktuelt
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr.
USA
Euroland
UK
Danmark
Sverige
Norge
0,125
0,05
0,50
0,20
1,50
0,125
0,05
0,50
0,20
1,50
0,500
0,05
0,75
0,20
1,50
+12 mdr.
1,250
0,05
1,00
0,20
0,50
1,50
Aktuelt
10-årig statsobligationer
+3 mdr.
+6 mdr. +12 mdr.
2,34
0,84
2,24
1,12
1,17
2,09
2,50
0,95
2,45
1,00
1,50
2,30
3,00
1,25
2,75
1,25
1,85
2,30
3,40
1,50
3,00
1,55
2,20
2,40
Aktuelt
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/DKK
EUR/DKK
SEK/DKK
NOK/DKK
1,249
112,6
5,959
7,443
0,8060
0,8805
Valuta
+3 mdr.
1,24
109,0
6,01
7,45
0,828
0,898
1,16
110,0
6,42
7,45
0,837
0,898
1,10
110,0
6,77
7,45
0,866
0,898
2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. november 2014
Kommende begivenheder
Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber
Dato
05-11-14
05-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
Selskab
Genmab
Lundbeck
Banknordik
North Media
Torm
FLSmith
Vestas
Zealand Pharma
Regnskab
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
3. kvartal
Økonomisk kalender
Dato
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
03-11-14
04-11-14
04-11-14
04-11-14
04-11-14
04-11-14
04-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
05-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
06-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
07-11-14
Tid
02:00
02:45
08:30
09:30
10:00
10:30
15:00
15:45
16:00
16:00
02:35
11:00
11:00
14:30
16:00
16:00
02:45
03:30
09:15
09:30
10:00
10:00
10:30
11:00
13:00
14:15
15:15
15:45
16:00
08:00
09:30
10:30
13:00
13:00
13:30
13:45
13:45
14:30
14:30
14:30
15:00
15:45
01:05
07:45
08:00
08:00
08:30
08:45
09:00
09:00
10:00
14:30
14:30
16:15
Land
Kina
Kina
Sverige
Schweiz
EMU
UK
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
Japan
EMU
EMU
USA
Danmark
USA
Kina
Japan
Schweiz
Sverige
EMU
EMU
UK
EMU
USA
USA
USA
USA
USA
Tyskland
Sverige
UK
UK
UK
USA
EMU
EMU
EMU
USA
USA
EMU
USA
USA
Schweiz
Tyskland
Tyskland
Frankrig
Frankrig
Schweiz
EMU
Norge
USA
USA
USA
Indikator
Periode
Non-manufacturing PMI
Oct
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Oct F
PMI Manufacturing
Oct
PMI Manufacturing
Oct
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Oct F
Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
Oct
ECB's Nouy Speak
Markit US Manufacturing PMI
Oct F
ISM Manufacturing
Oct
Construction Spending MoM
Sep
Wards Total Vehicle Sales
Oct
Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI
Oct F
PPI (MoM/YoY)
Sep
European Commission Economic Forecasts
Trade Balance
Sep
Foreign Reserves
Oct
Factory Orders (MoM)
Sep
HSBC China Services PMI
Oct
BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo
CPI (MoM/YoY)
Oct
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Oct F
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
Oct F
Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
Oct
Retail Sales (MoM/YoY)
Sep
MBA Mortgage Applications
Oct 31
ADP Employment Change
Oct
Fed's Kocherlakota, Lacker Speaks
Markit US Services PMI
Oct F
ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Oct
Factory Orders (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Average House Prices
Oct
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Bank of England Bank Rate
06. nov
BOE Asset Purchase Target
Nov
Challenger Job Cuts YoY
Oct
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
06. nov
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
06. nov
ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference
Initial Jobless Claims
01. nov
Unit Labor Costs
3Q P
Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
02. nov
Fed's Mester Speaks
Unemployment Rate SA
Oct
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Exports SA MoM
Sep
Bank of France Bus. Sentiment
Oct
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Foreign Currency Reserves
Oct
EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting
Industrial Production (MoM/YoY)
Sep
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Oct
Unemployment Rate
Oct
Fed's Yellen Speaks on Policy Since the Crisis in Paris
Survey
-50.4
52.5
51.3
50.7
51.5
SHB
---51.0
50.5
--
Forrige
54.0
50.4
53.4
50.4
50.7
51.6
56.0
56.5
0.7%
16.60M
---
-56.6
-----
56.2
56.6
-0.8%
16.34M
52.8
-0.1%/-1.4%
-$40.0B
--0.5%
--
-440
---
-$40.1B
442.4
-10.1%
53.5
-0.1%/-0.1%
-52.4
52.2
--0.5%
-214K
-0.2%/-0.2%
-------
0.1%/-0.1%
-0.2%/-2.4%
52.4
52.2
57.4
1.2%/1.9%
-6.6%
213K
-58.0
2.0%/-1.0%
-0.4%/1.6%
0.50%
375B
-0.050%
-0.200%
-58.0
---0.50%
375B
-0.050%
-0.200%
57.3
58.6
-5.7%/-1.3%
2.243M
0.0%/2.5%
0.50%
375B
-24.4%
0.050%
-0.200%
-0.9%
---
287K
-0.1%
--
--
37.2
3.2%
1.8%/-1.1%
2.3%
--0.1%/0.0%
--
-------
3.2%
-4.0%/-2.8%
-5.8%
96,0
0.0%/-0.3%
462.2B
-230K
5.9%
-250K
5.9%
-0.6%/2.3%
248K
5.9%
Faktisk
53.8
50.4
Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected])
Ansvarsfraskrivelse:
Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er n øjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud
om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken
påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående
aftale.
3
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