1. No category

EARNINGS RESULTS
ี กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้
พี.ซ.ี เอส.แมชน
10 พฤศจิกายน 2557
PCSGH TB / PCSGH.BK
Sector: Automotive Neutral
กำไรรไรรรมำส /57 รำำ ก่าำาำด
้
าำแนะนำพืน
้ ฐำน: ซือ
เป้ ำหมำยพืน
้ ฐำน: 11.30 บำท
รำาำ (07/11/57): 9.35 บำท
Price chart
กาไรไตรมาส 3/57 ตา
่ กว่าประมาณการของเรา
PCSGH รำยงำนกำไรรสุทธิไรรรมำส /57 ทีำ 191 ล ้ำนบำท สูงขึน
้ 1%
YoY แราลดลง % QoQ ผลประกอบกำรรำำ ก่าำประมำณกำรของเรำ
19% และรำำก่าำรลำด 26% ซึงำ เป็ นผลมำจำกอัรรำกำไรรขัน
้ ร ้นลดลง
พร ้อมกันนีย
้ อดขำยไรรรมำส /57 รำำ ่าำาำด 12% จำกกำรสางมอบสินา ้ำ
บิ๊ กล็ อ กลาำ ช ้ำในไรรรมำสนี้ โดยก ำไรรในชา่ ง 9 เดือ นแรกของปี าิด เป็ น
69% ของประมำณกำรกำไรรของเรำทีำ 910 ล ้ำนบำท
ประเด็นหล ักจากผลประกอบการ
รำยไรด ้ลดลง 11% YoY (แราสงู ขึน
้ /% QoQ) เป็ น 1.04 พันล ้ำนบำท
้ สา่น
ซึงำ รำำ ก่าำประมำณกำรของเรำ 12% โดยอุปสงา์ในกลุามผู ้ผลิรชิน
อุปกรณ์ยำนยนร์ปรับรั่ลงหลังจำกทีม
ำ ก
ี ำรสางมอบรถยนร์ในโารงกำรลด
หยาอยภำษี รถยนร์าันแรกในเดือนมิ.ย. 2776 อีกทัง้ สางมอบสินา ้ำจำน่น
มำกลาำช ้ำ ดังนั น
้ PCSGH จึงรำยงำนอัรรำกำไรรขัน
้ ร ้นเป็ น 21% ลดลง
จำก 24.8% ในไรรรมำส 257 แราสงู ขึน
้ เล็กน ้อยจำก 20.2% ในไรรรมำส
/576 (เรำประมำณกำรไร่ ้ทีำ 24%) เชานเดีย่กับ อัรรำกำไรรสุทธิในไรรร
มำส /57 ทีล
ำ ดลงเป็ น 18.4% จำก 20.7% ในไรรรมำส 257 แราสงู ขึน
้
จำก 16./% ในชา่งเ่ลำเดีย่กันในปี ทแ
ีำ ล ้่ (เรำาำดกำรณ์ไร่ ้ทีำ 20%)
แนวโน้ม
เรำาำดกำไรรไรรรมำส 457 จะสูงขึน
้ เล็กน ้อย YoY และ QoQ สอดาล ้อง
้ จะถูก
กับกำรฟื้ นรั่ของกำรผลิรยำนยนร์ (พร ้อมกันนี้เรำาำด่าำาำสังำ ซือ
เลือ
ำ นออกไรปสางมอบในไรรรมำส /57 )
สิง่ ทีเ่ ปลีย
่ นแปลง
เรำยังางประมำณกำรกำไรรปี 277 และปี 2778 ทีำ 910 ล ้ำนบำท และ
1.47 พันล ้ำนบำท รำมลำดับ ไรมาเปลีย
ำ นแปลง
คาแนะนา
เรำาำดอุรสำหกรรมยำนยนร์จะเริม
ำ ฟื้ นรั่ในไรรรมำส 457 โดยในชา่ง
แรกจะหนุ นโดยกำรสางออก และในทีส
ำ ุด กำรบริโภาในประเทศก็ เ ริม
ำ สาง
ำ ่าำ กำไรรของ PCSGH จะแระจุดรำำ สุดในไรรร
สัญญำณกำรฟื้ นรั่ เรำเชือ
ำ งขำลงของรำาำหุ ้นมีอยาำงจำกัด เรำยัง าง
มำส /57 ดังนั ้น า่ำมเสีย
้
้ ปี 2778 ทีำ 11./0 บำท อ ้ำงอิง
าำแนะนำ ซือ ด ้่ยรำาำเป้ ำหมำย ณ สิน
justified PER ทีำ 12เทาำ
Price
Bt
11.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
11/13
Rel. to SET
Rel. Idx
150
100
50
01/14
03/14
Share price perf. (%)
Relative to SET
Absolute
0
07/14
05/14
1M
(7.1)
(4.6)
3M
(12.0)
(8.3)
Key statistics
Market cap
12-mth price range
12-mth avg daily volume
# of shares (m)
Est. free float (%)
Foreign limit (%)
Consensus
rating
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
67
Buy
17
17
Hold
Sell
Bt14.4bn
Bt-/BtBt49m
1,545
25.2
49.0
USD0.4bn
USD1.5m
BLS Target price BLS earnings
vs. Consensus
vs. Consensus
Btm
2000
Bt
11.4
11.3
11.3
11.2
11.2
11.1
11.1
Cons.
1000
500
BLS
Cons.
BLS Cons.
1
BLS
1500
0
14E 15E
Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec
Revenues (Btm)
Net profit (Btm)
EPS (Bt)
EPS grow th (%)
Core profit (Btm)
Core EPS (Bt)
Core EPS grow th (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend (Bt)
Dividend yield (%)
ROE (%)
2013
5,124
1,377
1.19
-19.7%
1,338
1.16
-21.5%
7.9
5.9
4.2
44.8
40.3
CG rating
2014E
2015E
4,612
5,304
910
1,455
0.59
0.94
-50.5% +59.9%
828
1,324
0.54
0.86
-53.7% +60.0%
17.5
10.9
3.1
2.7
0.5
0.5
4.4
4.9
26.8
26.7
2016E
5,569
1,520
0.98
+4.5%
1,391
0.90
+5.0%
10.5
2.5
0.6
5.8
25.0
N/A
าุณสุ่ัฒน์ บำรุงชำริอด
ุ ม
นัก่ิเารำะห์กำรลงทุนปั จจัยพืน
้ ฐำนด ้ำนหลักทรัพย์
[email protected]
+66 2 618 1341
See disclaimer at the end of report
PCSGH: Financial Tables – Year
2012
5,294
(3,432)
1,862
(161)
1,701
(5)
8
1,705
0
1,705
0
0
0
1,705
1.48
1.48
1,697
1.48
2,118
2013
5,124
(3,602)
1,523
(178)
1,344
(6)
38
1,376
1
1,377
0
0
0
1,377
1.19
1.19
1,338
1.16
1,478
2014E
4,612
(3,620)
992
(161)
831
(3)
83
911
(1)
910
0
0
0
910
0.59
0.59
828
0.54
1,375
2015E
5,304
(3,819)
1,485
(161)
1,324
0
131
1,455
(0)
1,455
0
0
0
1,455
0.94
0.94
1,324
0.86
1,922
2016E
5,569
(4,010)
1,559
(169)
1,391
0
132
1,523
(3)
1,520
0
0
0
1,520
0.98
0.98
1,391
0.90
2,019
KEY RATIOS
Revenue grow th (%)
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Core profit margin (%)
ROA (%)
ROCE (%)
Asset turnover (x)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
66.8
35.2
40.0
32.0
32.2
32.0
30.9
32.8
1.1
2.7
0.1
354.4
(3.2)
29.7
28.8
26.1
26.9
26.1
23.9
78.3
1.1
0.5
2.1
219.0
(10.0)
21.5
29.8
18.0
19.7
18.0
15.6
15.9
1.3
2.8
0.1
283.6
15.0
28.0
36.2
25.0
27.4
25.0
22.2
21.7
1.3
3.6
0.0
0.0
5.0
28.0
36.2
25.0
27.3
25.0
20.6
20.4
1.4
4.4
(0.1)
0.0
BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash & Equivalent
Accounts receivable
Inventory
PP&E-net
Other assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
384
915
739
3,858
48
5,945
561
200
23
20
804
1,150
0
3,991
5,141
0
5,945
319
853
670
3,699
27
5,567
351
3,500
30
3
3,884
1,156
96
431
1,683
0
5,567
604
801
1,041
3,581
59
6,086
862
0
65
50
977
1,545
2,918
646
5,109
0
6,086
1,115
1,049
1,098
3,665
85
7,012
909
0
55
256
1,220
1,545
2,918
1,329
5,792
0
7,012
1,925
1,102
1,153
3,558
20
7,758
744
200
85
343
1,373
1,545
2,918
1,922
6,385
0
7,758
CASH FLOW (Btm )
Net income
Depreciation and amortization
Change in w orking capital
FX, non-cash adjustment & others
Cash flow s from operating activities
Capex (Invest)/Divest
Others
Cash flow s from investing activities
Debt financing (repayment)
Equity financing
Dividend payment
Others
Cash flow s from financing activities
Net change in cash
1,705
416
(83)
0
2,038
(727)
(81)
(809)
(535)
0
(450)
(81)
(985)
245
1,377
544
(91)
0
1,830
(569)
213
(356)
3,294
6
(4,840)
213
(1,540)
(67)
911
598
412
0
1,921
(1,000)
218
(782)
(3,465)
3,307
(695)
218
(853)
285
1,455
628
(66)
0
2,017
(1,050)
326
(724)
(10)
0
(773)
326
(783)
511
1,523
691
(95)
0
2,118
(1,100)
489
(611)
230
0
(927)
489
(697)
810
Free cash flow (Btm )
FCF per share (Bt)
1,311
1.14
1,260
1.09
921
0.60
967
0.63
1,018
0.66
Industry data
GDP grow th (%)
Auto productions ('000 unit)
New car sales ('000 unit)
Auto export ('000 unit)
Auto production grow th (%)
New car sale grow th (%)
2012
5.5
2,300
1,250
1,050
57.8
57.0
2013
3.0
2,460
1,330
1,130
7.0
6.4
2014E
3.0
2,400
1,100
1,300
(2.4)
(17.3)
2015E
3.3
2,500
1,200
1,300
4.2
9.1
2016E
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0.0
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
Gross profit
SG&A
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
EBT
Corporate tax
After-tax net profit (loss)
Minority interest
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Fully diluted EPS
Core net profit
Core EPS
EBITDA
Revenue growth and asset turnover
Revenue growth (%) (LHS)
Asset turnover (x) (RHS)
%
x
80
2.0
60
1.5
40
1.0
20
0.5
0
(20)
0.0
10
11
12
13
14E 15E 16E
A/C receivable & A/C payable days
AR / Sales (days)
AP / Cost of Goods (days)
days
100
80
60
40
20
0
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Profit margins
Gross margin (%)
%
EBIT margin (%)
40
30
20
10
0
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Capital expenditure
Bt,bn
Capex (Bt,bn)
%
Capex / Net PPE (%)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
11
12
13
14E 15E 16E
Debt serviceability
x
(ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
10
11
12
13
14E
15E
16E
Dividend payout
Dividend (Bt)
Bt/Shr
%
Payout ratio (%)
5
4.19
4
3
2
1
0.63
0.45 0.50 0.60
0.58
0.00
0
10
11
12
13
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
14E 15E 16E
พี.ซี.เอส. แมชีน กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้ - 2
PCSGH : Financial Tables – Quarter
QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm )
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
Gross profit
SG&A
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
EBT
Corporate tax
After-tax net profit (loss)
Minority interest
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Fully diluted EPS
Core net profit
Core EPS
EBITDA
3Q13
1,166
(930)
236
(46)
190
(1)
0
190
0
190
0
0
0
190
0.16
0.16
191
0.16
326
4Q13
1,089
(848)
240
(43)
198
(4)
25
219
0
219
0
0
0
219
0.19
0.19
198
0.17
361
1Q14
1,086
(838)
249
(32)
217
(3)
18
232
(1)
231
0
0
0
231
0.15
0.15
216
0.14
366
2Q14
1,010
(760)
250
(63)
187
0
20
207
(1)
207
0
0
0
207
0.13
0.13
186
0.12
346
3Q14
1,038
(820)
218
(48)
169
0
22
192
(0)
191
0
0
0
191
0.12
0.12
169
0.11
334
Revenue trend
Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS)
Bt,bn
%
Revenue growth (% YoY)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)
(60)
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Revenue trend (accumulated)
Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn)
Bt,bn
%
% of FY Revenue
6
100
5
4
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
68
79
56
3
45
28
2
24
1
0
KEY RATIOS
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
Operating margin (%)
Net margin (%)
Core profit margin (%)
BV (Bt)
ROE (%)
ROA (%)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm )
Cash & Equivalent
Accounts receivable
Inventory
PP&E-net
Other assets
Total assets
Accounts payable
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Other liabilities
Total liabilities
Paid-up capital
Share premium
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity
Auto production (unit)
New car sale (unit)
Auto export (unit)
Auto production grow th QoQ (%)
New car sale grow th QoQ(%)
Auto export grow th QoQ (%)
1Q13
20.2
27.9
16.3
16.3
16.3
1.3
51.9
13.3
4.7
2.9
n.m.
22.1
33.1
20.5
20.1
18.2
1.5
52.1
15.8
5.7
2.3
n.m.
22.9
33.7
21.5
21.3
19.9
3.2
18.6
16.6
6.7
0.1
n.m.
24.8
34.3
20.5
20.5
18.5
3.4
16.0
14.9
7.7
0.1
n.m.
21.0
32.2
18.4
18.4
16.3
3.3
15.2
14.1
8.7
0.1
n.m.
219
901
792
3,776
34
5,723
466
570
27
3,197
4,259
1,156
0
308
1,464
0
5,723
319
853
670
3,699
27
5,567
351
(1)
30
3,474
3,854
1,156
96
431
1,683
0
5,567
530
765
571
3,661
24
5,552
311
0
31
211
552
1,545
2,897
527
4,968
0
5,552
609
737
596
3,580
27
5,549
339
1
29
(26)
342
1,545
2,897
737
5,178
0
5,549
497
678
645
3,482
130
5,432
371
2
30
(31)
372
1,545
2,897
588
5,030
0
5,432
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
293,492 290,800 229,153 216,740 207,205
304,028 280,831 275,220 268,538 278,905
(5)
(11)
(2)
(16)
5
(10)
(1)
(21)
(5)
(4)
4
(8)
(2)
(2)
4
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Net profit trend (accumulated)
Bt,m
Accum. Profit (Bt,m)
% of FY Profit
%
1,500
120
100
1,200
84
100
70
900
69
80
48
600
36
60
25
40
300
20
0
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Gross profit margin
%
FY GPM (%)
Gross margin (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
EBIT margin
%
FY EBIT margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Company profile
PCSGH has three areas of specialist manufacturing expertise: 1) PCS Precision Work (PCW) makes precision machined parts, 2) PCS Die
Casting (PCD) makes die-cast aluminum parts and 3) PCS Forging tailor-makes orders for auto-makers. The main products are components
of powertrain systems for diesel vehicles (engines, transmissions and final drives).
พี.ซี.เอส. แมชีน กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้ - 3
Figure 1 :
3Q14 results
FY Ended 31 Dec (Btm)
3Q14
3Q13 YoY %
2Q14
QoQ
%
9M14
Income Statement
Revenue
Cost of sales and services
EBITDA
EBIT
Interest expense
Other income/exp.
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items
EBT
Corporate tax
Minority interest
Net profit (loss)
Reported EPS
Core net profit
1,038
(820)
334
169
0
22
0
0
192
(0)
0
191
0.12
169
1,166
(930)
326
190
(1)
0
0
0
190
0
0
190
0.16
191
1,010
(760)
346
187
0
20
0
0
207
(1)
0
207
0.13
186
3
8
(3)
(10)
0
10
0
0
(8)
(55)
0
(7)
(7)
(9)
3,134
(2,418)
1,046
574
(3)
60
0
0
631
(2)
0
629
0.54
572
4,036
(2,753)
1,565
1,146
(2)
13
0
0
1,157
0
0
1,157
1.33
1,147
21.0
32.2
16.3
0.2
18.4
8.7
0.1
n.m.
20.2
27.9
16.3
(0.1)
16.3
4.7
2.9
n.m.
22.9
33.4
18.3
0.3
20.1
8.7
0.1
195.5
31.8
38.8
28.4
(0.0)
28.7
4.7
2.9
510.5
497
5,432
2
30
372
588
5,030
0
3.3
219
5,723
570
27
4,259
308
1,464
0
1.3
Key ratios
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Tax rate (%)
Net margin (%)
Current ratio (x)
Gearing ratio (x)
Interest coverage (x)
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent
Total assets
ST debts & current portion
Long-term debt
Total liabilities
Retained earnings
Shareholders equity
Minority interests
BV (Bt)
(11)
(12)
3
(11)
0
nm
0
0
1
nm
0
1
(25)
(11)
24.8
34.3
18.5
0.4
20.5
7.7
0.1
n.m.
126
(5)
0
15
(91)
91
244
0
157
609
5,549
1
29
342
737
5,178
0
3.4
9M13 YoY %
(22)
(12)
(50)
0
366
0
0
(45)
nm
0
(46)
(59)
(50)
 Revenue dropped YoY but up
QoQ
 Net margin was squeezed QoQ
 A net cash position since
capital-raising
(18)
(2)
0
6
9
(20)
(3)
0
(3)
Sources: Company data, Bualuang Research estimates
พี.ซี.เอส. แมชีน กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้ - 4
Sector Comparisons
Bloomberg
Code
P rice M arket Cap
(US$
(local curr.) equivalent)
P ER (x)
EP S Growth (%)
2014E
2015E
2014E
P BV (x)
ROE (%)
2015E
2014E
2015E
2014E
Div Yield (%)
2015E
2014E
2015E
n.a.
Thai Rung Union Car
TRU TB
AUD4.9
87
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Inoue Rubber (Thailand)
IRC TB
IDR16.7
102
8.7
9.5
0.0
-23.4
1.3
1.2
13.4
16.2
4.9
3.6
Thai Steel Cable
TSC TB
IDR15.0
119
13.5
12.7
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
12.0
13.0
n.a.
n.a.
Aapico Hitech
AH TB
THB14.80
146
4.0
3.5
95.7
14.7
0.8
0.7
18.6
18.8
3.0
3.7
P.C.S. Machine Group Holding
PCSGH TB
THB9.35
441
15.9
9.9
-50.5
59.9
2.8
2.5
26.8
26.7
4.8
5.3
Somboon Advance Technology
SAT TB
THB18.30
237
12.7
9.0
-36.5
41.8
1.5
1.3
12.1
15.4
2.5
2.7
Thai Stanley Electric
STANLY TB
THB214.00
500
11.0
14.3
-8.4
-22.7
1.5
1.4
14.4
10.3
2.8
2.3
11.0
9.8
0.1
14.1
1.6
1.4
16.2
16.7
3.6
3.5
Simple average
Foreign holding
%
PCSGH
Auto
40
30
20
10
4.9
0
6/14
7/14
8/14
9/14
10/14
11/14
พี.ซี.เอส. แมชีน กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้ - 5
Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited
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BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12
months.
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next
3 months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
พี.ซี.เอส. แมชีน กรุ๊ป โฮลดิง้ - 6